Third Time's The Charm - The
Neocons Want Another Sunni Insurgency
When the U.S. was
confronted with an insurgency in Iraq it did not
find fault with own behavior but identified Syria
and Iran as the culprits. It decided to attack them
too. As Seymour Hersh
reported in 2007:
undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite,
the Bush Administration has decided, in effect,
to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle
East. In Lebanon, the Administration has
cooperated with Saudi Arabia’s government, which
is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are
intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite
organization that is backed by Iran. The
U.S. has also taken part in clandestine
operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A
by-product of these activities has been the
bolstering of Sunni extremist groups
that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are
hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda.
later the U.S. used the Sunni militants it created
to first attack Libya and then Syria. With U.S.
support the militants to destroyed the independent
Libyan state under Ghaddafi. The country is now in
total chaos. In Syria the militants, with
clandestine support from the U.S. and its allies,
waged a six year long war to overthrow the
government. Many of them joined the Islamic State
and al-Qaeda, the Takfiri offsprings of the U.S.
program and Saudi money that went (somewhat) rogue.
These groups did not limit, as the U.S. wished,
their attacks to U.S. enemies but committed several
larger scale attacks against U.S. allied countries.
Now the groups themselves are enemies.
of creating a controllable "Sunni Arab force" to
destroy Syria had failed. The Pentagon made another
attempts, spending tens of millions of dollars, to
train a new Sunni Arab force in Syria to attack the
Syrian government as well as the Takfiris. As soon
as these new groups entered into Syria they joined
the Takfifirs and handed over the weapons the U.S.
army had given them.
The U.S. is
now engaging with Russia and local Kurdish forces in
Syria to destroy the Takfiri groups on the ground.
The Kurds are of various religions and denominations
with a mostly secular outlook. That plan made some
progress though an actual attack on Raqqa, the
current center of the Islamic State, is still weeks
off. The Syrian government is winning its part of
the fight in the west of the country.
that is not enough for the U.S. neoconservatives.
Their task is to further Zionist plans by
creating more chaos
in the Middle East. Their partner and money source
is the Sunnni-Wahhabi Saudi Arabia. Having
successfully arranged the destruction of Iraq,
various failed "surges" as well as the attack on
Syria, they can not condone that the Syrian
government survives the war.
set out to create a new (the third now) Sunni Arab
force to continue what their original war plan
Frederick and Kimberly Kagan, luminaries of
the neoconservative family,
initiate their new campaign on the neoconned opinion
pages of the Wall Street Journal:
A New Strategy Against ISIS and al
Qaeda - The U.S. has been relying too heavily on
Shiites and Kurds. It needs to cultivate Sunni Arab
family, other well known members are Robert Kagan
and Victoria Nuland, are also main instigators of
the war on Iraq. Here they are in 2008 strolling
(heavily guarded) through the occupied Basra, Iraq
amusing themselves off the destruction they created.
op-ed is a shorter version of a
"study" written by
the "think tank" the Kagan family runs to collect
It says in
short: The U.S. shall shun the Kurds and not
cooperate with Russian, Syrian or Iranian forces. It
shall create another Sunni Arab proxy insurgency in
Syria to fight ISIS and al-Qaeda and also the Syrian
government. The first step towards that is already
The US and
acceptable partners seize and secure a base in
southeastern Syria, such as Abu Kamal, and
create a de facto safe zone. They then recruit,
train, equip, and partner with local Sunni Arab
anti-ISIS forces to conduct an offensive against
ISIS. This independent Sunni Arab force forms
the basis of a movement to destroy ISIS and al
Qaeda in Iraq and Syria over many years.
Building a Sunni Arab anti-ISIS partner must be
the rate-determining step in the advance along
the Euphrates River Valley (ERV). American
forces must fight alongside their partners to
reduce the trust deficit between the US and
potential Sunni allies. Potential partners must
not support Salafi-jihadists, Iranian proxies,
or Kurdish separatism.
has already tried this since 2006 by clandestine
means. Those forces morphed into al-Qaeda/ISIS. The
Pentagon then tried the same concept by military
means. That proxy force ran over to the enemy as
soon as it could. Now a third try shall be made?
fictitious plot continues:
The US launches clearing operations along
the Euphrates River Valley toward Raqqa,
using US forces and the new Sunni Arab
partner at Abu Kamal, and in Iraq’s Anbar
The US brokers a peace deal between Turkey
and the Syrian-Kurdish “People’s Defense
Forces” (YPG), focused on the contact line
in Aleppo Province.
The US implements a no-fly zone in Dera’a
Province, demonstrating US commitment to
addressing the grievances of populations
under jihadist control and facilitating a
local cessation of hostilities with Russia
and between pro-Assad and US-backed
anti-Assad forces. The US must also help
partner forces in Dera’a destroy ISIS and al
Qaeda, which would help facilitate a
negotiated settlement of the Syrian war. The
US should execute this step after the first
phase and coincident with clearing
operations in southeastern Syria.
The US should try to stitch together the new
force with existing US-backed fighters to
create a single partner that can secure
terrain from jihadists, defend against
pro-Assad attacks, and uphold a
settlement against the Assad regime.
follow-on operations set conditions that favor
broader US interests in Syria, but they do not
achieve those interests. Subsequent phases will
be necessary and will require a
significant counter-Iranian component in Iraq
not imagine how much
Kool-aid one must drink
to come up with so much nonsense.
start with those imaginary tribes in south-east
Syria. The south-eastern desert of Syria is empty
with little resources (besides some oil) and few
people. These are rather small groups where the
tribal leaders no longer have much say. The tribal
members mostly live in the cities. They are members
of the Syrian army or of its enemies. Some of the
tribal members had joined ISIS, other fought it and
were badly hurt with hundreds of casualties on their
side. Most of these tribes lived quite well with the
Syrian government and would be happy if it would
return and control their area. Most of them have no
sectarian grievances with Damascus. They have no
inventive or wish to fight the Syrian state.
Turkish president Erdogan is currently
trying to hire the
very same tribes to fight the Syrian Kurds. He will
fail with that too.
want their new grand force to also fight al-Qaeda.
But al-Qaeda is in north-west Syria (and still
supported by Turkey.) The Kagans emphasize the use
of local forces. How are south-eastern desert tribes
"local" to the people in Idleb?
aim of the Kagans is of course in the last parts of
their plan which I highlighted. They want to use
these "Sunni Arab tribes" to make another attempt of
destroying the Syrian state to then attack the
Iranian "bridge" to Hizbullah in Lebanon.
Fortunately the Kagans are at least six month behind
the realities on the ground in Syria.
The Pentagon will laugh at any "Sunni Arab tribes"
ideas. The U.S. military will try to take Raqqa from
ISIS with the help of the Kurds and in coordination
with Syrian government forces. The Syrian government
forces will also destroy al-Qaeda in Idleb.
that Trump will pick up on these neocon plans is
practically zero. But who knows? The people who pay
the Kagans also spend lots of money to "lobby" (i.e.
bribe) the Washington establishment. They certainly
hope that there is still a chance to get their ideas
wormed into the minds of the White House.
views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of Information Clearing