Could Brexit Leave the UK Vulnerable to Pressure From U.S. Hawks?

It's supposed to make Britain more independent. But it might put her at the mercy of Mike Pompeo's Iran policy.

By Barbara Boland

September 05, 2019 "Information Clearing House" -  By unyoking London from Europe, a no deal Brexit would unleash a titanic shift in global alliances that could strengthen Washington’s hand and help it achieve its “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.

That’s an ironic turn of events for populists in the United Kingdom, who support Brexit because it will allow the British people to determine their own fate.

But for some in Washington, Brexit represents a golden opportunity to negotiate with a United Kingdom unencumbered by Europe. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo admitted as much when he was asked whether our relationship with the UK will be strengthened by Brexit.

“I think it’s the case,” Pompeo said Thursday on the Hugh Hewitt Show. “We’ll have a clear line with [the UK]. We won’t have the EU as a middleman that has put constraints on our capacity to do lots of good things across not only the economic sector but the security sector and the diplomatic sector as well.  … I’m confident that that very special relationship will continue to grow.”

Note that Pompeo specifically mentioned “the security sector” when listing how Brexit will help the U.S. That’s of particular importance now because the Trump administration has been pressuring European nations to back its withdrawal from the Iran deal and reimpose sanctions on Iran. So far, they have been reluctant to do so.

In recent months, the U.S. has claimed that Iran was responsible for attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz and the downing of an American surveillance drone. At Washington’s urging, the British Royal Navy seized an Iranian oil tanker entering the Mediterranean. The U.S. then unsuccessfully maneuvered to prevent the UK from releasing the vessel.

After the government of then-prime minister Theresa May missed two deadlines to negotiate an exit deal with the EU, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was elected on a promise that he would finally deliver on the June 2016 referendum and withdraw the UK from the European Union, deal or no deal.

Johnson’s decision to suspend Parliament last Wednesday makes the current Brexit deadline of October 31 look inevitable, because he has effectively reduced his opponents’ ability to reverse the referendum via legislation by running out the clock.

Brexiteers have long argued that London will have far greater freedom to negotiate its own trade pacts after it leaves the 28-nation European Union. But they may be in for a surprise: if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, it will likely find itself more susceptible to American leverage.

   

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