Coronavirus - The Hidden Cases -
Why We Must Shut Everything Down And Do It Now
By Moon Of Alabama
March 12, 2020 "Information
Clearing House" -
The powers that be in our
'western' societies have decided to do nothing
significant against the onslaught the novel
coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 is now causing.
There will not even be an attempt to do like
China or South Korea which have thrown all resources
at stopping the spread of the virus while it was
still possible. The 'west' now seem to be beyond
The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
floated the idea to "take it on the chin" -
i.e. to do nothing to soften the blow the epidemic
will cause. Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany
told her parliamentary group that 60-70% of all
Germans will catch the virus. Most of them will fall
ill with the Covid-19 disease the virus causes. At a
1% death rate this means that more than 500.000
Germans will die from it. Merkel did not say how she
would try to prevent that. So far little was done by
her administration to stop a further public
spreading of the disease.
The Donald Trump administration has done its best
to prevent an early detection of the outbreak in
Washington State and likely also elsewhere:
As luck would have it, Dr. Chu had a way to
monitor the region. For months, as part of a
research project into the flu, she and a team of
researchers had been collecting nasal swabs from
residents experiencing symptoms throughout the
Puget Sound region.
To repurpose the tests for monitoring the
coronavirus, they would need the support of
state and federal officials. But nearly
everywhere Dr. Chu turned, officials repeatedly
rejected the idea, interviews and emails show,
even as weeks crawled by and outbreaks emerged
in countries outside of China, where the
By Feb. 25, Dr. Chu and her colleagues could
not bear to wait any longer. They began
performing coronavirus tests, without government
What came back confirmed their worst fear.
They quickly had a positive test from a local
teenager with no recent travel history. The
coronavirus had already established itself on
American soil without anybody realizing it.
The CDC and the FDA would not have that:
The message from the federal government was
blunt. “What they said on that phone call very
clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu,” Dr.
Lindquist [the state epidemiologist in
Washington] remembered. “Stop testing.”
Our dear leaders are following the
four stage strategy (vid):
In stage one we say "Nothing is going to
Stage two we say something may be going to
happen but we should do nothing about it.
Stage three: We say maybe we should do something
about it but there is nothing we can do.
Stage four: We say maybe there was something
that could have been done but it is too late
Yascha Mounk follows
my argument and gives a
reasonable advice on what we can do to make this
as pandemic as survivable as possible. Shut
everything down that can be shut down. Increase
social distance as much as possible. Avoid all live
social contacts wherever possible. Do it NOW!
One Tomas Pueyo
explains in detail why we must do this
immediately. (I checked his numbers and find
no faults with them.)
Wuhan city in China was shut down on January 23.
Twelve days later, on February 4, the newly
confirmed cases in Wuhan reached their peak and
declined from there. This gives us the time delay
from an infection to become a diagnosed and counted
case as the shutdown increased the social distance
and lowered the number of new infections.
Each newly infected person itself infected two or
three other persons. The growth rate was thereby
exponential until they shut the city down. Had the
city not been shut down on January 23 the numbers
beyond February 4 would have gone higher and higher.
That will happen in our cities and countries as our
authorities are unwilling or unable to act as early
and as decisively as the Chinese authorities did.
Tomas Pueyo -
This is one of the most important charts.
It shows in orange histograms the daily
official number of cases in the Hubei province:
How many people were diagnosed that day.
The grey histograms show the true daily
coronavirus cases. Crucially, these weren’t know
at the time. We can only figure them out looking
What this means is that the orange histograms
show you what authorities knew, and the grey
ones what was really happening.
On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed
cases (orange) is exploding: there are around
100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new
cases that day, growing exponentially. But the
authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was
that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this
Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan.
At that point, the number of diagnosed
daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they
made a decision to close the city with just 400
new cases in a day. In reality, there
were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t
This means that we must all act now because today
the numbers in Washington state and elsewhere are
already exploding even though we do not know yet how
high they really are. Those people who do get
infected today will only become official cases
twelve or more days from now when they will
(hopefully) be diagnosed and counted.
The key thing to do now is 'social distancing'.
As our governments do not act decisively to achieve
that it is our personal responsibility to do that
ourselves. Everyone must do this to the best of
These numbers are not fantasies but today's
Washington State is the US’s Wuhan. The number
of cases there is growing exponentially.
Spain has very similar numbers as France (1,200
cases vs. 1,400, and both have 30 deaths). That
means the same rules are valid: Spain has
probably upwards of 20k true cases already.
In the Comunidad de Madrid region, with 600
official cases and 17 deaths, the true number of
cases is likely between 10,000 and 60,000.
If you read these data and tell yourself:
“Impossible, this can’t be true”, just think
this: With this number of cases, Wuhan was
already in lockdown.
China has defeated the epidemic in Wuhan. A few
cases leaked and the effects now move into our
societies. But our dear leaders are throwing the
Chinese victory out of the window by not replicating
early and decisively what the Chinese did. Many of
us will have to pay for this.
Communists will shut down a city to prevent a
deadly epidemic from going exponential. Our
neo-liberal leaders only started to care
when the Dow Jones went down. Don't expect them
to call for a shutdown as that will cost their
donor's some money. As mostly elderly people will
die they are probably calculating how much money the
pension funds will save.
Not shutting everything down guarantees that our
health care systems will get overwhelmed. This will
increase the death rate of the disease.
Tomas Pueyo as well as Yascha Munck mention the
1918 influenza pandemic and point out
how much difference a shutdown made at that
As the disease was spreading, Wilmer Krusen,
Philadelphia’s health commissioner, allowed a
huge parade to take place on September 28; some
200,000 people marched. In the following days
and weeks, the bodies piled up in the city’s
morgues. By the end of the season, 12,000
residents had died.
In St. Louis, a public-health commissioner
named Max Starkloff decided to shut the city
down. Ignoring the objections of influential
businessmen, he closed the city’s schools, bars,
cinemas, and sporting events. Thanks to his bold
and unpopular actions, the per capita fatality
rate in St. Louis was half that of Philadelphia.
(In total, roughly 1,700 people died from
influenza in St Louis.)
Good luck to all of us.
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