Coronavirus - A Lockdown Is Not Enough|
By Moon Of Alabama
March 17, 2020 "Information
Clearing House" - Dr. Carl Juaneau, who
is specialized in epidemiology, has pointed me to a
page where he collects useful information about the
novel Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 and the current
pandemic it causes.
COVID-19: Why America May Be Hit Hard for 3-4 Months
& What To Do
It is quite good. Make
sure that you scroll beyond the long country
statistic for additional useful information.
Eight days after we wrote
Why We Must Shut Everything Down And Do It Now
it finally gets done. European countries have closed
their borders and told their people to hunker down.
Major car companies like Volkswagen, Peugeot and
Fiat have stopped their production as car sales have
slumped anyway. Airbus shut down two of its
production sites to revamp them for better
protection of its workers. In the U.S. the Bay Area,
New York, Seattle and other major cities have also
basically closed down.
Even Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson has
changed his mind. Instead of taking it "on the chin"
as he had suggested and letting many people die
until the rest achieves 'herd immunity' Britain will
now finally try to stop the spreading epidemic.
Racism is the reason that this is happening so
late. China, South Korea and Singapore had already
show what needs to be done to fight the epidemic and
how to do it successfully. But Asian voices do not
count in 'white' decision making. The political
action in Europe and the U.S. only started to happen
after Italy was hit very hard.
And our governments are still not doing enough.
We must test every person's temperature
at airports and trains and build up drive
thru testing capacity. If one does not
search for the virus one will not find it.
We must test, test, test to track all virus
carriers down and to stop the spreading.
There must be a mandatory isolation of people who
are probably infected but do not show symptoms as
well as separate isolation of suspected and detected
cases with 'mild' symptoms.
Telling a probably infected person to shelter
with their family, as is now done in the U.S. and
the U.K, will only kill more people. 75%-80% of the
cases in China got infected through direct family
contact. The family chain must be broken to
effectively stop the epidemic.
Probably infected persons, i.e. those who had
contact with another infected person, should be put
under quarantine in sport arenas or exposition
facilities to be supervised by medics.
Contact tracing teams must ask each of them with
whom they met over the last days and then check on
those persons. This requires lots of people and
resources but China has show that it is doable.
Tracing cellphones may be useful to help with this.
Community monitoring may be a viable
Additional hospital capacity must be built. There
must be hospitals exclusively for Covis-19 cases and
others for people with different medical problems.
NYT science and health reporter Donald
McNeil, who was in China during the shutdown,
explains very well how China has beaten the epidemic
in Wuhan. Please watch this:
Organizing all those measures is exactly what our
governments should have done since the end of
January. Today they are still only discussing most
of those measures.
Boris Johnson is said to have
changed his strategy based on a
from the Imperial College. The study says:
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a)
mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not
necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing
peak healthcare demand while protecting those
most at risk of severe disease from infection,
and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse
epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low
levels and maintaining that situation
Mitigation was the way Boris Johnson had planned
to go because he wanted to achieve 'herd immunity'
for all of Britain. That is something that can only
be done through vaccinations. The idea was clearly
lunatic. The study says that such a 'mitigation'
would have resulted in "hundreds of thousands of
deaths and health systems (most notably intensive
care units) being overwhelmed many times over."
That leaves suppression as the only way to go.
Cut the epidemic down as much as possible and test,
test, test to find each and every new case. Cutting
the epidemic down requires a two months shutdown and
all the above listed additional measures.
There was by the way nothing new in Johnson's
'new' Imperial College study. Here is Richard Horten,
the editor of the famous medical journal Lancet,
telling it like it is (emphasis added):
richard horton @richardhorton1 -
6:56 UTC · Mar 17, 2020
It said it took a study from Imperial to
understand the likely burden of COVID-19 on the
NHS. But read the first paper we published on
COVID-19 on Jan 24. 32% admitted to ITU with 15%
mortality. We have wasted 7 weeks. This
crisis was entirely preventable.
The morning after the dramatic change in
strategy to COVID-19 by this govt, I
can’t help but feel angry that it has
taken almost two months for politicians and even
“experts” to understand the scale of the danger
from SARS-CoV-2. Those dangers were
clear from the very beginning.
Chinese clinicians and scientists—Chen Wang,
George Gao, Chen Zhu, Bin Cao—did the world a
great service by immediately sharing their data,
warning the world that SARS-CoV-2 was a
dangerous new virus. I’m appalled to say
that western “experts” failed to heed their
Laura Kuenssberg says (BBC) that, “The
science has changed.” This is not true. The
science has been the same since January. What
has changed is that govt advisors have at last
understood what really took place in China and
what is now taking place in Italy. It
was there to see.
Even with a shutdown the situation for Britain's
National Health Service is likely to become
catastrophic. The red line in the graphic below is
the actual critical case capacity the NHS has. There
are some 10 critical care beds per 100.000 people.
All prediction variants show that it will be exceed
several times. Johnson's 'do nothing' strategy would
have required 180 critical care beds per 100,000
people. Even with all measures that will now be
taken there will likely be a need for several more
critical care beds for each one that currently
"You may live" and "you must die" decisions will
have to be made as there is not enough capacity in
Shutting down most public life is now clearly the
best thing to do. In Italy, the town of Lodi (green)
had the first case, and locked down on Feb 23.
Bergamo (red) waited until March 8. See the
Today ANSA reported that there are now no more
free intensive care beds in Bergamo, a city with
more than 120,000 inhabitants.
The delay between the shutdown in Wuhan and a
fall in new daily cases
was 12 days. 10 to 14 days from now we will
probably see a drop in the number of new cases in
European societies and within the shutdown areas in
the U.S. But that is not guaranteed unless the
additional measures come into play.
The late shutdown decisions by 'western'
governments come at a very high price. Many more
people will die because the time and information
China gave us to prepare was not used to make the
necessary decisions. The late decisions will also
increase the time it will take to fight the epidemic
down. They thereby also increased the economic
damage all this will cause.
People should ask their governments why they
disregarded the information and experience from
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