Pelosi leads US, into age of disorder and
instability
By Martin Jacques
Donald Trump's election as US president
in November 2016 marked the end of over four
decades of relative stability in US-China
relations. Ever since, it has been downhill
all the way with barely a pause. Five years
have passed and we have seen two US
presidents. It would be an exaggeration to
suggest that relations are in freefall, but
the relationship is patently now unhinged.
Predictability has been replaced by
uncertainty. Trust has evaporated. It is
impossible to predict what the state of the
relationship will be after the US
congressional elections in November, or
after the next presidential election in
2024. The huge uncertainty surrounding the
much-mooted visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan
this week summed up the present highly
charged and intensely volatile nature of
US-China relations. It is a salutary fact
that neither President Xi Jinping nor even
President Joe Biden knew whether that visit
would actually go ahead.
This is a very dangerous situation. The
relationship has lost all predictability.
Where previously the US-China relationship
was based on a well-established and deep
mutual understanding and respect for each
other's position, now there is very little,
at times seemingly none. The guardrails that
prevented the relationship suddenly swerving
off course are no longer in place, as we
have seen so dramatically over the last week
or so. What makes the situation even more
dangerous, frightening in fact, is the
growing power vacuum in the US. Biden, up
until the last minute, did not appear to
know whether fellow-Democrat Pelosi would go
to Taiwan. As we have seen, on two different
occasions his aides intervened to reassure
the media that had to reinterpret his
suggestion that the US would come to
Taiwan's defence in the event of Chinese
military action.
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It is impossible to predict who might be US
president in 2024. It is not difficult, for
example, to imagine the return of Trump or
someone even worse. Meanwhile, driving the
process of polarisation and fragmentation in
the US is American decline. It is this,
above all, which is responsible for the
growing breakdown of the global order. We
have entered the age of disorder and
instability, both in the US itself and, of
course, in the wider world. It represents a
mortal threat to global peace. In just a few
short years, the language of war, conquest
and conflict has replaced the language of
cooperation and peace. The idea of war is
becoming progressively normalised. That
means there is a rising likelihood of it
actually happening.
It is no accident that the flashpoint is
Taiwan. One of Trump's first actions as
president was to take a call from Tsai
Ing-wen, the first time since 1979 that a US
president had spoken with a Taiwanese
regional leader. He even began to question
the One-China policy, although he was
dissuaded from pursuing this by wiser heads.
One of the great achievements of the
Nixon-Mao rapprochement was a series of
understandings that for the next 40 years
would inform and underpin the US-China
relationship on Taiwan question. Once the
US-China relationship began to unravel after
2016, it was inevitable that Taiwan question
would once again become a hot-button issue.
For China, nothing is more important than
the return of the lost territories and the
reunification of China. For China this is an
existential question. Notwithstanding this,
the PRC has shown great patience ever since
the illegal occupation of the island by
Chiang Kai-shek in 1949. Mao made it clear
to Kissinger that China would be patient
providing the One-China policy was strictly
observed and the Taiwanese government did
not declare independence. According to
Kissinger, Mao said, "We can do without
Taiwan for the time being, and let it come
after 100 years."
Over the last five years the US has been
encroaching on these understandings by
increasing weapon sales to Taiwan, boosting
military patrols in the region, and giving
diplomatic backing to the island through
visits by US politicians. A visit by Pelosi,
the speaker of the House of Representatives,
would raise the bar of provocation. Not
since 1997 has an American of her stature
visited the island. If Pelosi, then what or
who next? A pattern is steadily taking
shape. As the relationship between China and
the US becomes increasingly unpredictable,
Taiwan has become by far the most dangerous
source of tension and conflict.
The Pelosi visit will serve only to raise
tensions, increase suspicions, and heighten
the danger of a military conflict. But even
if the visit does not proceed, it will not
halt the incipient process of escalation.
The two countries need to reaffirm the basic
principles of their long-held and shared
understanding over Taiwan. The danger of a
military conflict over Taiwan is now far
greater than at any time since the 1970s.
Any such conflict would be far more serious
than if it had happened previously because
China is now the equal of the US and a far
more formidable military adversary. It is a
conflict that both sides must seek to avoid
at all costs.
The author was until recently a senior
fellow at the Department of Politics and
International Studies at Cambridge
University. He is a visiting professor at
the Institute of Modern International
Relations at Tsinghua University and a
senior fellow at the China Institute, Fudan
University. Follow him on twitter @martjacques.
opinion@globaltimes.com.cn