By Paul Craig Roberts
October 11, 2022:
Information Clearing House
-- To be clear, I
respect Putin as a person.
He is humane.
He cares about life and civilization. He
is a good person.
In fact, he is proving to be too good of
a person to be dealing with the venal and
corrupt West, and he
has no idea how to conduct a war.
Putin thinks, or thought, that Russia and the
West shared common values.
This shows how little Putin understands
the West. The West is Washington, and the rest
of the West are not independent countries but
Washington’s puppets. None of Washington’s
puppets represent their own citizens and neither
does Washington. Washington’s values are
measured only in dominance and money.
Washington is concerned only with its
political, military, and financial hegemony over
everyone else, including its own people who are
waking up in each successive day in an ever
tightening police state where the US
Constitution is erased bit by bit, day by day.
The FBI has become a Gestapo for the Democrat
Party.
The Western media is a propaganda
ministry for Washington. Truth that is
inconsistent with the ruling official narratives
is suppressed.
The government and its presstitutes feed
the people lies and tell them it is truth.
Putin gives speeches in which he shows that
he understands this, but his actions do not
reflect his understanding in his speeches.
The distance between Putin’s words and
his action is almost infinite.
The Kremlin had to be totally out of touch
with reality when the Kremlin thought that its
“limited military operation” in Donbass would be
allowed by Washington to be limited.
How anyone in the Kremlin could possibly
have been this naive, this gullible, this
uninformed is beyond my imagination.
How is it possible that the Kremlin could
possibly have thought that after Washington went
to the trouble to force Russian military
intervention in Donbass, Washington didn’t
intend to use it to greatly widen the war.
Here we witness the total failure of
Russian intelligence and the total failure of
Russian understanding of the enemy with which
Russia is at war.
Indeed, it is not even clear that Russia
understands that she is at war with the West.
Here and there a Russian says so, but
Russia’s actions belie any such understanding.
The Kremlin is still trying to bail out
Europe by supplying energy so Europe can
continue its war against Russia.
How does one understand this?
It has to be a first in History when a
country at war supplies its enemies with the
fuel with which to conduct war against itself. The
Kremlin is begging Europe to please let us sell
you energy so your war industries don’t have to
close down.
Could the Kremlin do anything else to
make the Russian government look like the most
confused government on earth?
https://www.rt.com/business/564148-novak-nord-stream-supplies-europe/
Let’s put the origin of the ongoing and
widening war in Ukraine in its factual context.
In 2014 the American neoconservatives who
dominate the American government overthrew the
government in Ukraine while the Russian
government, totally ignoring happenings in its
backyard, was focused on trying to win Western
acceptance as an Olympics host in Sochi.
In other words, the Kremlin thought the
Olympics was more important than Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s insouciance made Washington’s
takeover of Ukraine a cake walk.
Suddenly, the Kremlin was faced with
Ukrainian neo-Nazis prohibiting the use of the
Russian language and terrorizing and killing
ethnic Russians who comprise the population of
Donbass and Crimea, historical parts of Russia
that Soviet authorities moved from the Russian
province of the Soviet Union to the Soviet
Ukraine province.
These Russian areas of Ukraine all voted by
massive majorities to be reunited with their
home country, but the Kremlin only accepted the
application from Crimea, a part of Russia since
the 1700s.
The Kremlin accepted Crimea, because that
is where the Russian Black Sea Naval Base is
located, leased since the Soviet collapse, from
Ukraine which was separated from Russia by the
Soviet collapse.
By leaving the Donbass Russians hanging at
the mercy of the US neoconservative coup, the
Kremlin guaranteed a military conflict.
The punishment the Ukrainian neo-Nazis
inflicted on the Donbass Russians resulted in
the creation of two independent
republics:
Donetsk and Luhansk.
To defend themselves from being occupied
by neo-Nazis, the two republics organized
governments and militias. After loosing some of
their territory to Ukrainian neo-Nazi militias,
the Donetsk and Luhansk republics stopped the
advance, but were subjected to artillery attacks
for eight years on civilian housing that
continue today.
Putin and Lavrov tried to pass the buck to
the West and stupidly, although with the best
intentions, tried to deal with the problem
diplomatically, showing how little they
understood the West.
Putin came up with the impractical Minsk
Agreement signed by Ukraine and the two Donbass
republics and guaranteed by France and Germany.
Under the Minsk Agreement Donbass was to
remain within Ukraine, but would have sufficient
autonomy to have their own police force so they
they could not be persecuted by neo-Nazi
Ukrainian police.
It became clear almost instantly that Ukraine
would not comply with the agreement it signed
and that France and Germany would not enforce
the agreement.
Why the Kremlin thought two Washington
puppet states would enforce an agreement that
permitted Russia to escape a military conflict
is beyond my imagination.
That Putin spent eight years trying to save an
agreement that never had any prospect shows
how out of touch with reality the Kremlin is.
With this factual background, let’s come to
the present conflict today.
When it comes to International Law, Putin is
the only person in the world who abides by it.
Certainly Washington doesn’t.
By abiding by international law, Putin
gives Washington every advantage in the
conflict.
Under international law a Russian invasion of
Ukraine is an act of aggression.
So Putin was careful not to invade
Ukraine, despite what you hear from the
presstitutes.
The two Donbass republics, belatedly
recognized by Russia eight years afterwards,
requested assistance from Russia to prevent
their conquest by a large Ukrainian army trained
and armed by the West that was poised to invade.
Perhaps at this point the Kremlin realized
its mistake of failing to accept, as the
republics begged, reincorporation into Russia in
2014. In February 2022,
if the Kremlin allowed neo-Nazis to
exterminate Donbass Russians, the Kremlin would
loss all legitimacy with the Russian people.
In other words, Washington successfully
maneuvered the Russian government into war that
served Washington’s interest.
As the West presented it, here was Russia
the aggressor confirming Western propaganda.
Here was Russia subverting Europe with
energy dependence. Here was Russia rebuilding
the Soviet Empire. Next Russia would be
recreating the Warsaw Pac
and extending it into Western Europe with
Europe’s energy dependency on Russia. No one in
the West listened to the Kremlin’s explanation.
With the official narrative set, Washington
began supplying Ukraine with modern weapons,
intelligence, and targeting information.
When the Russian offensive paused,
because Putin or the Russian military lacked the
foresight to realize that an offensive required
reserves, and as a result of this oversight, had
no reserves, the US/UK trained Ukrainians began
their own offensive, which has partially
succeeded against the thinly protected Russian
lines.
The Russian retreats, while awaiting
reinforcements, have been presented in Western
media such as the New York Times and the UK
Telegraph as Russian forces fleeing the
battlefield in terror, leaving behind their
equipment.
This is not what is happening, but it is not
the fact of the situation that matters but how
the media explains the situation. The
narratives created by Washington and its
presstitutes create their own “facts.”
Putin and the Russian military unbelievably
went to war with minimal commitment of forces
and no reserves.
The Russian forces simply lacked the
manpower, given Putin’s limited commitment, to
defend thin lines once Putin stopped the
offensive and handed the initiative to
Washington. This is one of the most stupid
mistakes that a wartime commander can make.
What is actually happening is that the
Kremlin in its totally incorrect reading of
Washington had no idea that Ukraine would be
supplied with endless modern weapons,
intelligence, and targeting information.
Not expecting this response, the Kremlin
was not prepared for real war.
Even if the Kremlin had better understanding
of the situation, the Kremlin has shown no
comprehension of how to fight a war.
We are now into eight months of a
conflict that Russia could have settled in one
week. And mighty Russia has been forced on the
defensive with its lines retreating both in
Kharkiv in the North and Kherson
in the South. Wars that are perceived as
being lost can lose their glory and support of
the population.
To be clear, when the mobilized Russian
reinforcements, which an intelligent military
would have had on hand from the first of the
conflict, are finally prepared for war,
apparently sometime in December, the Russians
will regain the lost territories, although the
Ukrainians might have killed the inhabitants.
But there is still no guarantee that
Putin understands that Russia is at war with the
US and Europe or what do do about it if he does
understand it.
The Kremlin’s spokesman says that the
limited operation in Donbass will continue. If
so and nothing else, the only possible
conclusion is that Russia will be long
suffering. A military that is prevented from
attacking the communication and military
infrastructure and most of the territory of the
country with which it is at war cannot prevail.
The Kremlin has been at war for eight months
and has done nothing to prevent Kiev’s ability
to fight a war. The Kremlin’s view that it is
not at war with Ukraine and is only conducting a
police action to remove Ukrainian forces from
the Donbass is a self-deceiving idea that
prevents the Kremlin from conducting a war.
To speak the truth, the Kremlin’s conduct of
war is juvenile. A 10-year old kid could do a
better job.
Was the Kremlin even thinking when it
thought it could conduct a war while leaving the
opposing government perfectly secure in its
conduct of the war?
Russia has refused, to shut down the
government in Kiev, thus allowing its enemy to
conduct, unopposed, war against Russia.
This has to be the first time in human
history that a government at war has been
permitted to operate as if it were not at war.
There is no Russian attempt to destroy Zelensky,
to shut down Kiev, to disrupt the communication
and infrastructure of Ukraine.
Any country that conducts war in such a
self-defeating way convinces
its opponents that it has no intention of
winning the war.
This perceived lack of Russian resolution
enbolders the West to push Russia harder and to
violate more Russian red lines.
Violating Russian red lines means nothing
to the West as Russia never does anything about
violations of its red lines.
Russian protests are nothing but
meaningless Russian bluster, says the West.
Unless the Kremlin intends to lay down its
arms and surrender to Ukraine and the West, the
extraordinary weakness and irresolution that the
Kremlin has shown in its “limited military
operation” will encourage more aggression from
the West and lead directly to the 3rd World War.
Zelensky is already calling for preventative
nuclear strikes against Russia.
https://sputniknews.com/20221006/peskov-urges-entire-world-to-take-note-of-zelenskys-call-for-preventive-nuclear-strike-on-russia-1101582414.html
Apparently, never in Putin’s entire life did
he ever learn to put his foot down.
Putin seems to think it can be done with
mere words, but it cannot.
Putin’s hesitancy and toleration of
provocations has undermined his credibility.
As the West has no fear of its opponent,
Putin’s Goody Two Shoes behavior is bringing us
Armageddon. The longer the war goes on, the
more involved the West becomes, the greater the
stake powerful interest groups, such as the US
military/security complex, have in the war, and
the less prospect for de-escalation.
By constantly showing irresolution,
acceptance of extreme provocations, and
shamelessly begging for negotiations, the
Kremlin has convinced Washington that Russia is
incapable of fighting. From Washington’s
viewpoint, Russia is nothing to be feared, only
something to be moved out of way.
It is extraordinary that the government of
what is probably the most powerful military
force in the world has convinced Washington
that Russia is military impotent.
This is Putin’s achievement from trying to
save the Donbass Russians without having to
fight a real war.
Andrei Martyanov, the Saker, and Dmitry Orlov
have seriously misled their pro-Russian
audience.
Martyanov and Saker stressed the
superiority of Russian firepower and tactical
operations, which was correct, but they ignored
the built-in strategic failure of the Russian
“limited operation.”
Moreover, the Russian tactical advantage
was reduced when the limited forces Putin had
been willing to commit became too thin to
protect the boundaries of the conquest, and
modern weapons from the West and targeting
information substantially reduced Russian
firepower advantage.
Putin, having foolishly let the war go on
month after month, a war that he should have
competed in one week, gave the US and UK time to
train a larger Ukrainian army and equip it with
modern weapons.
It should have been obvious to the
Kremlin from day one that this was in the cards.
Any time a war is drawn out the advantage
passes to the side that is not constrained by
self-imposted constraints.
It is impossible to imagine Napoleon or
the Wehrmacht fighting in such a constrained way
as Russia is required to fight in Ukraine. If
Stalin had fought in the way Putin is today,
there would be no Russia.
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant
Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy
and associate editor of the Wall Street Journal.
He was columnist for Business Week, Scripps
Howard News Service, and Creators Syndicate. He
has had many university appointments. His
internet columns have attracted a worldwide
following. Roberts' latest books are
The Failure of Laissez Faire
Capitalism and Economic Dissolution of the West,
How America Was Lost,
and
The Neoconservative Threat to
World Order.
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