By Patrick J. Buchanan
October 18, 2022:
Information Clearing House
-- To President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukraine, Crimea and the
Donbas are national territories whose retrieval
justifies all-out war to expel the invading
armies of Vladimir Putin's Russia.
Yet, who controls Crimea and the Donbas has,
in the history of U.S.-Russian relations, never
been an issue to justify a war between us.
America has never had a vital interest in who
rules in Kyiv.
Through the 19th and almost all of the 20th
century, Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire
or the USSR, ruled from Moscow. And that
condition presented no issue of concern to the
USA, 5,000 miles away.
For us, the crucial concern in this
Ukraine-Russia war is not who ends up in control
of Crimea and the Donbas, but that the U.S. not
be sucked into a war with Russia that could
escalate into a world war and a nuclear war.
That is America's paramount interest in this
crisis.
Nothing in Eastern Europe would justify an
all-out U.S. war with Russia. After all,
Moscow's control of Eastern and Central Europe
was the situation that existed throughout the
Cold War from 1945 to 1989.
And the U.S. never militarily challenged that
result of World War II.
We lived with it. When Hungarians rose up in
1956 for freedom and independence, the U.S.
refused to intervene. Rather than risk war with
Russia, the Hungarian patriots were left to
their fate by President Dwight Eisenhower.
How the world has changed in the 21st
century.
Today, while the U.S. is under no obligation
to go to war for Ukraine, we are obliged, under
the NATO treaty, to go to war if Slovakia,
Czechia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Poland,
Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia are attacked.
And, though Kyiv is not a member of NATO, the
U.S. finds itself the financier and principal
armorer of Ukraine in a war with Russia over
Crimea and the Donbas, which could involve the
use of nuclear weapons for the first time since
Nagasaki.
In short, our vital interest — avoidance of a
U.S. war with a nuclear-armed Russia — may soon
clash with the strategic war goals of Ukraine —
i.e., full retrieval of Crimea and the Donbas.
If Putin is serious about an indefinite war
to hold Crimea and the Donbas as Russian
territory, how far are we willing to go to aid
Ukraine in driving the Russians out and taking
these lands back?
What appears to be emerging is a situation
something like this:
As U.S. weapons help drive Russian soldiers
out of the occupied regions of Ukraine, Russia
and Putin are being driven into a corner, where
the alternatives left to them shrink to two:
accept defeat, humiliation and all its
consequences, or escalate to hold onto what they
have.
At some point, escalation to prevent defeat
can require crossing the nuclear threshold. And
Putin and his retinue have said as much.
Bottom line: At some point in this conflict,
achieving the war aims of Ukraine must force
Moscow to consider escalation or accept defeat.
For Russia, the worse the war situation is,
the sooner comes the day when Putin must either
play his ace of spades to avoid defeat, or
accept defeat, humiliation and his potential
overthrow in Moscow.
As Russia's use of nuclear weapons could lead
to a war that could involve the United States,
Kyiv's relentless pursuit of its vital interests
— retrieval of all the lands taken by Russia,
including the Donbas and Crimea — will
eventually imperil vital U.S. interests.
If Kyiv, with U.S. weapons and support,
pushes the Russians out of Crimea and the Donbas,
Kyiv pushes its war with Russia closer and
closer to a nuclear war.
As Kyiv seeks to reconquer all its territory
lost to Russia since 2014, it pushes Russia
closer and closer toward consideration of the
only way to avert defeat and national
humiliation, use of tactical nuclear weapons,
which means moving closer to war with the United
States.
The higher the casualty rates for Putin's
Russia, the worse the defeats inflicted on
Russia by U.S.-armed and -equipped Ukrainians,
the greater the likelihood Russia plays its ace
of spades, nuclear weapons, to stave off defeat
and humiliation and ensure the survival of the
regime.
In short, the closer Putin comes to defeat,
the closer we come to nuclear war, for that
increasingly appears to be the only way Putin
can prevent a Russian defeat, disgrace and
humiliation.
Americans had best begin to consider what is
the outcome to this war that can end the
bloodshed, restore much of Ukraine to Kyiv, but
not be seen as a historic humiliation for
Russia.
Some Americans see this war as an opportunity
to inflict a defeat and disgrace on Putin's
regime and Russia. Those seeking such goals
should recognize that the closer they come to
achieving their goals, the closer we come to
Russia's use of nuclear weapons.
Recall: President John F. Kennedy sought to
provide an honorable way out of the Cuban
missile crisis for the Soviet dictator and
nation who precipitated it.
(Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of
"Nixon's White House Wars: The Battles That Made
and Broke a President and Divided America
Forever.")
Views expressed in this article are
solely those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of Information Clearing House.
in this article are
solely those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of Information Clearing House.
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