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Iraq war may go for decades: report
From correspondents in London
11/23/05 "The
Australian" -- -- THE war in Iraq could last for
decades with British troops unlikely to withdraw without a "highly
unlikely" split with Washington, a report says today.
The Oxford Research Group non-governmental organisation, which
assesses constructive approaches to dealing with international
terrorism and the "war on terror", says the war in Iraq is only in
its early stages.
"Given that the al-Qaeda movement and its affiliates are seeking to
achieve their aims over a period of decades rather than years, the
probability is that, short of major political changes in the USA,
the Iraq war might well be measured over a similar time span," the
report concludes.
It says the presence of coalition troops in Iraq since the March
2003 US-led invasion has been a "gift" to Osama bin Laden's
Al-Qaeda.
The terror network has gained recruits by portraying their presence
as a neo-Christian occupation of a main Muslim country, the report
says.
The group says an American pullout would be "a foreign policy
disaster greater than the retreat from Vietnam".
There was no prospect of British troops coming home from the country
unless there was an about-turn on Britain's relationship with the
US.
Prime Minister Tony Blair has been a staunch supporter of action in
Iraq.
Defence Secretary John Reid said last week that British troops could
start withdrawing next year.
The report says: "This would be a major policy shift for the Blair
Government, representing the sharpest difference in its relationship
with Washington in the past eight years.
"In present circumstances it is highly unlikely, yet the war is
likely to cast an increasing shadow over UK policy in the next
year."
Assuring Iraq's security and the presence of a friendly government
in the country is an essential strand of American security policy,
even if it meant keeping a permanent military presence in Iraq, the
report says.
That would allow the US long-term access to oil from the region,
essential to the US because of its increasing dependence on foreign
oil, it says.
The Oxford Research Group said in July that nearly 25,000 civilians
had died in violence since the start of the war in Iraq, a third of
which were killed by coalition forces.
© The Australian
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