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Iraqi insurgency strong and could get stronger
Two veteran defense analysts think US operation in Iraq at 'tipping
point'.
By Peter Mackler – WASHINGTON
12/02/05 "MEO" -- -- Despite US claims of progress in quelling the
insurgency in Iraq, it remains as robust as ever and could grow a
good deal stronger, according to a new study released Thursday.
The study by two veteran defense analysts working for the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy also said the US operation in Iraq
was at a "tipping point" that will last for six to nine months.
"I think the outcome of this tipping period is probably going to
dictate whether or not the US effort in Iraq succeeds or fails,"
analyst Jeffrey White said at a lunch unveiling the report.
The study said the insurgency, comprised of nationalists, members of
Saddam Hussein's toppled regime and foreign Islamic fighters, showed
no sign of losing steam 32 months after the US-led invasion.
"Although thousands of insurgents have been killed and tens of
thousands of Iraqis have been detained ... incident and casualty
data reinforce the impression that the insurgency is as robust and
lethal as ever," it said.
Moreover, the researchers said, the insurgency has managed to
exploit only a fraction of the disgruntled minority Sunni Muslim
population with any kind of military training.
"Should the insurgency succeed in exploiting this untapped
potential, it could greatly increase its military capabilities,"
they wrote.
The report was prepared by White, who spent 34 years at the
Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), and Michael Eisenstadt,
a former civilian-military analyst with the US army.
The tone contrasted with the assertion in the "national strategy for
victory in Iraq" unveiled by President George W. Bush on Wednesday
that US forces were making "significant progress" in containing the
insurgency.
Eisenstadt and White said the war in Iraq was still winnable, but
added that the fight "will be protracted and costly, and is likely
to be punctuated by additional setbacks."
US officials cited by the report estimated that the Sunni insurgency
counted up to 20,000 members, including 3,500 active fighters. White
said the total number of supporters could top 100,000.
While Washington has billed Iraq as the central front in its war on
terror, White said foreign jihadists represented only 5-7 percent of
the insurgency and did not account for the majority of attacks or
fatalities.
But he said say the anti-American forces were making extensive use
of religion and, in a new development, former members of Saddam's
largely secular regime were identifying increasingly with the
Islamists.
"There is some kind of merging going on," White told the lunchtime
audience. "Whether this is a marriage of convenience or a marriage
of commitment remains to be seen."
The report said the insurgency had no hierarchy, but was a "web of
networks" drawing financial support from inside and outside Iraq. It
said support from Syria and Iran was "not insignificant" but not
essential.
"The insurgency has access to all the weapons, explosives, financial
resources, and trained manpower it needs, in amounts sufficient to
sustain current activity levels indefinitely -- assuming continued
Sunni political support," it said.
The analysts said the insurgents had scored "important tactical and
operational successes" while establishing themselves as a major
force in the Sunni community and sowing doubts in the United States
about the continued presence of 160,000 US troops.
"This isn't just random activity or terrorist activity," White said.
"The insurgents are actually conducting a purposeful kind of
strategy in Iraq and are trying to counter the very kinds of things
that we're trying to do."
But the report noted the insurgents were vulnerable on several
counts, lacking a unified leadership and unqualified support from
many Sunnis, and tarred
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