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Speculations over US attack against Iran
By Jürgen Gottschlich
12/23/05 "Der
Spiegel" -- -- Are the USA planing a rocket attack
against targets in Iran? In secret discussions Washington was
preparing the Allies for appropriate air strikes in 2006, agencies
disclosed to day. Especially in the NATO country Turkey,
speculations about an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities are
taking place.
Istanbul/Berlin - The News exploded like a Bomb in the tranquil
prechristmas mood.:Washington was preparing close allies for air
strikes against Iran. This was disseminated today by the German
Depeschenservice in a text by the former "FAZ" editor - Head and
Secret Service Expert Udo Ulfkotte - however substantial doubts on
this matter are certainly justified.
As source given by the not undoubted journalist Ulfkotte "Western
security circles" without naming specifics. According to his
statements, CIA-Chief Porter Goss in the Turkish Capital Ankara
asked M.P. Recep Tayyip Erdogan to support the air strikes against
Iranian Nuclear and Military Installations especially with
uninhibited exchange of secret information. At the present plan the
attacks were planned for 2006.
In recent weeks The governments of Saudi-Arabia, Jordan, Oman and
Pakistan have been informed about the implementations of military
plans. The air strikes were described as "possible option" a
specific point in time was however, not mentioned.
CIA Chief Gloss was now to have provided the Turkish Security
Administration in Ankara with three information packages, one of
which supposedly includes that Teheran cooperate with the terror
organization Al-Qaida. A further transferred info pertains to the
progress of the Iranian nuclear Armament, it was said. According to
statements from German security agencies, in Ankara Goss assured the
Turkish Government they would be informed a few hours before the
possible Air Strike and to give Turkey already the green light for
this particular day to attack depots of the separatist PKK on
Iranian territory - a curious "Green Light" however, because the PKK
does not maintain any military bases, but operates primarily in
North Iraq.
The possible critical move in that situation - DDP reports -
dependent mainly on the latest antisemitic outbursts of the Iranian
president Mahmud Ahmadinedschad, whose scathing verbal attacks
against Israel, prompted the American governments stronger
impression, that Teheran would not yield in the nuclear -
disagreement and were stalling for time. The News Agency cited a
high ranking German Military official, anonymously: " I would not
surprise me, if the Americans in short would not capitalize on the
opportunity delivered by Teheran. The Americans would have to Attack
Iran, before they have developed nuclear weapons. Afterwards it
would be too late.
If US plans for attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities exist, or how
detailed they are is hard to estimate. Last the American discovery
annalist Seymour Hersh, reported about this in January 2005 in the
"New Yorker" that secret US Commando Groups were active in marking
military targets.
The Bush Government did not deny Hersh's report at that time. They
only played it down: The article was full of "false statements" it
was said in Washington. That the central issue in the report were
false, was not disputed. Bush himself added explicitly, he didn't
want to exclude the "War" option.
Air attack after New year?
Is a military action, possibly a war in the region about to happen?
In Berlin the subject is moderated down. During the visit of defense
minister Franz Josef Jung with Donald Rumsfeld this week in
Washington, the possible Air Attack by the US on Iran did not come
up as "a subject", a speaker for SPIEGEL ONLINE said.
However, the speculation on US attacks against Iran refers primarily
to happenings in Turkey. Last week there was actually a mighty
assembly of high ranking Security Personnel from the USA and from
NATO in Ankara. Within a couple of days there was first the Chief of
the FBI, then the Chief of the CIA and last the Secretary General
Scheffer in Turkey. After her visit in Germany Coondoleezza Rize
travelled to Turkey, too.
In fact Turkey's newspapers in connection with these visits have
speculated too, that an attack on Iran was being prepared. But the
assumptions in Turkey were not based on hard facts. Following the
meeting of Porter Goss with Tayyip Erdogan the leftist Cumhuriyet
headlined: "Now its Iran's turn". Substantiations: None.
The Paper noted, however, that the meeting between the CIA-Chief and
Erdogan lasted unusually over an hour, even though Goss met
beforehand with the Chief of the Turkish Secret Service. Because of
that the Turkish public deducted that it had to be something very
important - detailed facts: Wrong conclusion. Just about all media
speculates over the possibility that Erdogan and Goss could have
discussed a mutual action against the PKK in North Iraq. Possibly
that Goss requested in exchange requested Turkish secret service
photographs. A possible Air Attack on Iran would certainly not be
staged from the Turkish base Incirlik, it is of course plausible
that the USA informed Turkey, to test their reaction.
Ankara is skeptical. In the past the government in Ankara was
skeptical concerning military actions by the USA to the point of
directly opposed. An offensive by US ground troops in Northern Iraq
against Saddam's Regime was even prevented by Ankara in 2003 - the
lack of this second front was blamed by Donald Rumsfield over and
over for military problems in Iraq.
Now the Turkish commander in chief and the probable future chief of
staff Yasar Buyukanit both spent two weeks in Washington. Afterwards
he commented that the relationship between the Turkish Army and the
US Army were again excellent. This is therefore remarkable, because
Buyukanit is one of the Hawks in the fight against the PKK and in
the past had already considered, to himself march into North Iraq -
in case the USA and the North Iraqi Kurds would not prevent the PKK
from staging attacks against Turkey.
The Turkish - Iranian relations have been chilled for a long time.
Teheran criticizes for years, that Turkey has good relations with
Israel and is even cooperating with the Israeli Military. About the
anti Israeli transgressions by Ahmadinedschad, Turkey was still not
bombarded by the news media as it was the case in Germany - they
just shook their head (shrugged their shoulder).
MP Erdogan has, however, just recently called his Israeli college
Aril Sharon and congratulated him to his recovery - The long rather
withheld contact by Erdogan with Sharon has in recently become much
closer. Sharon had recently declared, if in doubt, he would go
combat those in-love-with-nuclear Mullahs alone.
In spite of that The Turkish government spoke repeatedly against
military action against Iran and Syria. Because at least with
respect to the Kurdish question Turkey Syria and Iran are united,
that there may not be an independent Kurdistan in northern Iraq. An
alliance concerning these interests does not seem to exist between
Washington and Ankara. However, if the USA plans a missile attack
against Iran, Turkey must come aboard - active or passive.
But Erdogan and his military harbor the worst fear for the whole
region, in case the USA would actually go against Iran. Western
experts, too, consider the success of a military action against
nuclear installations in Iran in no way guaranteed. Just the
opposite: An attack would probably miss its aim to stop the nuclear
program and provide Ahmadinedschad with even more supporters.
Jürgen Gottschlich
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