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The Guerilla War on Iraqi Oil
“Iraqi oil…will be a legitimate and a permanent target of the armed
resistance plans to liberate Iraq and defeat the invaders...
The armed resistance will use every possible means militarily and
technically to prevent the occupier from stealing Iraq’s oil and use
its revenues with anyone, under any circumstances, on the national
and international levels...
On this basis, every one who collaborates with the occupier, such as
employees, merchants, middlemen, whether Iraqis, Arabs or non-Arabs
will be watched and targeted without any hesitation.” -- Baath Arab
Socialist Party Communiqué, Iraq, May 13, 2004
By Mike Whitney
01/03/05 "ICH" -- -- A war is raging in Iraq that will determine the
outcome of the present occupation as well as the shape of future
conflicts. It is the war for control of Iraqi oil.
Currently, America is losing the conflict in stunning fashion with
little hope for change in the near future. This week the Iraqi Oil
Ministry announced that oil production “has reached a post-war low”
and that the “exports of crude, which had run at an average of about
1.6 million barrels per day since the end of the 2003 war, dropped
to 1.2 mbpd in November and 1.1 mbpd in December.” (Al Jazeera,
January 2, 2006) All the indicators point to continuing difficulty
with production due to the escalating violence.
At times, the export of oil has been completely cut off in both the
northern and southern regions making it impossible to benefit from
Iraq’s prodigious natural wealth. The Iraqi resistance has grown
increasingly skillful in sabotaging pipelines and facilities despite
the extraordinary efforts to protect them from attack.
This is truly the face of 21st century warfare: disparate cells of
armed guerillas disrupting critical energy supplies that sustain the
global economy.
Currently, the resource war is concealed behind a propaganda
smokescreen created by the establishment media. Their task is to
characterize the conflict as a war on terror and to limit their
coverage to the random incidents of violence by fanatical jihadis.
It’s rare when the media reports on the guerilla war that has
subsumed Iraq and which threatens a worldwide economic downturn.
There’s simply no way that the Bush administration can prevail in
its original intention of controlling Iraq’s oil if a small army of
guerillas focus their energies on disrupting production. Millions of
dollars of infrastructure can be destroyed in a flash by one
determined fighter with a bomb or a Kalashnikov.
The success of the armed resistance is quantifiable in terms of the
reduction in oil exports. In 1990, Saddam was exporting 3.5 million
barrels per day. During the 1990s, there was a gradual decline due
to sanctions and neglect. Since the invasion of 2003, the oil sector
has taken a nosedive directly attributable to the blowing up of
pipelines. Production is now at an all time low, less than half of
what it was just prior to the invasion. The development of oil
fields and the transport of petroleum are proving to be incompatible
with the unpredictable outbursts of violence.
Oil Production: “Heading Backwards”
“The general integrity of Iraqi infrastructure appears to us to be
heading backwards rather than forwards,” London-based Barclay’s
Capital said in a report issued last month. (Jim Crane, Associated
Press)
Gone are the optimistic predictions, like those of Paul Wolfowitz
and Dick Cheney, who expected that Iraq would pay for its own
reconstruction with its lavish oil revenues. Instead, what we see is
the chilling rictus of new type of warfare that is likely to sweep
across the region swallowing up vital resources in columns of black
smoke.
The attacks on facilities have discouraged foreign investors from
committing to long-term investment or development. Many of the major
players remain skeptical that the US-led occupation will be able to
stabilize the situation in the near future. Industry analysts expect
little change in the overall security situation in 2006.
Additionally, the IMF has demanded that the Oil Ministry remove
price supports for the highly subsidized Iraqi domestic supplies.
This has only increased the public’s outrage with the ongoing
occupation. The IMF authorized a loan of $685 million to Iraq in
December with the predictable “vice-like” provisions that require
Iraq to follow its structural adjustment programs. In effect, these
provisions put Iraqi resources under the direct control of
transnational corporations who can then decide the terms under which
those resources are sold.
The growing opposition to the occupation and the increasingly adept
Iraqi resistance provide the foundation for a long and costly
conflict. Iraq is the first clear example of asymmetrical warfare in
the new century: small groups of rebels that target crucial energy
supplies, wreaking havoc and crippling industry.
As America continues to tighten its grip on the world’s dwindling
hydrocarbon resources, we can expect that the successes of the Iraqi
resistance will offer a model to the other disparate groups who have
no chance of beating the United States in open battle, but hope to
bring the empire to its knees by making the costs of war too great
to sustain.
Mike Whitney -
fergiewhitney@msn.com
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