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An Incendiary Threat in Iraq
Editorial
New York Times
01/12/06 "New
York Times" -- -- Iraq's most powerful Shiite
politician has just dealt a huge blow to American-backed efforts
to avoid civil war through the creation of a new, nationally
inclusive constitutional order. That leader, Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution
in Iraq, has turned his back on the crucial pledge, made before
last October's constitutional referendum, that the new charter
would be open to substantial amendment by the newly elected
Parliament. Instead, Mr. Hakim, who runs the dominant,
Iranian-supported fundamentalist party, now says no broad
changes should be made. In particular, he defends the current
provisions allowing substantial autonomy for the oil-rich Shiite
southeast.
The vote count from last month's parliamentary election is not
yet complete. But it is already certain that the Shiite
religious alliance, in which Mr. Hakim is the most important
leader, will hold enough seats to block any constitutional
changes it doesn't like. The only recourse is to persuade Mr.
Hakim to respect that earlier pledge.
Mr. Hakim's latest position is a prescription for a national
breakup and an endless civil war. It is also a provocative
challenge to Washington, which helped broker the original
promise of significant constitutional changes. On the basis of
that promise, Sunni voters turned out in large numbers, both for
the constitutional referendum and for last month's parliamentary
vote. Drawing Sunni voters into democratic politics is vital to
creating the stable, peaceful Iraq that President Bush has
declared to be the precondition for an American military
withdrawal. The most unacceptable defect of the new constitution
for Sunnis is its provision for radically decentralizing
national political and economic power, dispersing it to separate
regions.
In a quirk of geology, most of Iraq's known oil deposits lie
under provinces dominated by Shiites or Kurds, while the Sunni
provinces of the west and north are resource-poor and
landlocked. Iraq as a whole is rich enough to support all of its
people relatively comfortably. But a radically decentralized
Iraq would leave the Sunnis impoverished, aggrieved and
desperate, driving them into the arms of radical Sunni groups in
neighboring lands.
Although Sunnis are a minority in Iraq, they are an overwhelming
majority in the Arab world. An irreconcilable split between
Iraq's Shiites and Sunnis would leave the Shiites even more
dependent than they are now on Iran and American troops.
Constitutional changes are needed in other areas as well,
especially in regard to women's rights and the overly broad
prohibitions against former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath
Party. But decentralization is the most dangerously explosive
issue right now. Mr. Hakim seems perversely determined to
inflame it.
Copyright 2006The New York Times Company
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