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Islamists gain ground from American push for Mideast democracy
By Warren P. Strobel
Knight Ridder Newspapers
01/17/06 "Seattle
Times" -- -- WASHINGTON — Call it a case of
why you should be careful what you wish for.
President Bush's efforts to spread democracy to the Middle East
have strengthened Islamists across the region, posing fresh
challenges for the United States, according to U.S. officials,
foreign diplomats and democracy experts.
Islamist parties trounced secular opponents in recent elections
in Iraq and Egypt.
Hamas, the armed Islamic Palestinian group, appears set to fare
well in Palestinian parliamentary elections Jan. 25, posing a
quandary for how the United States and Israel pursue peace
efforts. Hamas has carried out suicide bombings against Israel
and calls for the country's destruction.
In Lebanon, the Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah is part of the
government for the first time.
Washington considers Hezbollah and Hamas, both of which have
Iranian support, to be terrorist groups.
"In the short run, the big windfall winners ... have been the
Islamists," said Michael McFaul, a Stanford University expert on
democracy and development.
In the long run, democracy probably will lead to a more stable,
economically flourishing Middle East, McFaul recently told a
Washington conference. But, he added, "We're taking a chance."
Islamist groups espouse Islam as the answer to their countries'
problems. They appeal to large segments of Arab societies,
particularly when the only alternative is the repressive state
apparatus. They have proved adept at providing social services
that governments often don't, and they largely are free of the
financial corruption found in many Arab countries.
Most strongly oppose U.S. foreign policy in the region and don't
acknowledge Israel's right to exist. Their long-term commitment
Bush administration officials and many pro-democracy advocates
argue that Islamist politicians inevitably will become more
moderate when given the responsibilities of power. That hasn't
happened, however, in Iran, which is Shiite but not Arab.
"It's entirely possible, but I think it's going to be a bumpy
ride," said F. Gregory Gause III, director of Middle East
studies at the University of Vermont.
Bush used his second inaugural address last January to make
spreading democracy, particularly in the Islamic world, the
priority of U.S. foreign policy. The ultimate goal, he declared,
is "ending tyranny in our world."
The United States is spending roughly $1.3 billion in fiscal
year 2006 to promote democracy worldwide, Bush said in May. He
says democracy will reduce the terrorism threat. Some political
scientists, including Gause, disagree.
Even Bush's critics give him credit for convincing Arab regimes
that Washington is serious about democracy and for encouraging a
tide of relative openness from North Africa to the Persian Gulf.
Pushing democracy slowly is becoming entrenched as a priority at
the State Department under Condoleezza Rice and at other
agencies, officials said.
But the successes are far more modest than the White House has
described them, some said.
"Freedom is crawling — over broken glass," said a State
Department official, scaling back the president's frequent
contention that "freedom is on the march." The official
requested anonymity in order to speak more frankly.
Bush and Rice rarely discuss in public the prospect that
Islamists could be the prime beneficiaries of their policies.
Asked at a town-hall event Wednesday in Louisville, Ky., about
the lack of separation between church and state in much of the
Middle East, the president replied: "It's going to be the spread
of democracy itself that shows folks the importance of
separation of church and state." He cited Iraq's new
constitution, which says Islam is "a basic source of
legislation" but guarantees rights to the country's non-Islamic
and non-Arab citizens.
Last year, there were elections in Iraq and the Palestinian
Authority; Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak allowed the first
multiparty presidential elections; and Syria pulled troops from
Lebanon under pressure, leading to new elections there.
But a more sober mood has set in.
"People were overly optimistic," said former State Department
official Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at
the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International
Studies, a national-security research center. "And now people
are overly pessimistic."
Repression and one-man rule remain the norm.
The Economist magazine's Intelligence Unit in November gave only
two countries in the Middle East relatively high marks on a
10-point scale of political freedom: Israel (8.20) and Lebanon
(6.55).
Morocco, Iraq and the Palestinian areas each scored slightly
above 5 points, while 15 countries didn't reach that halfway
mark. Libya received the lowest score, 2.05.
Copyright © 2006 The Seattle Times Company
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