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Revolution in the Andes
Fidel Castro's prophecy has at last been fulfilled as Bolivia
joins Latin America's 'axis of good'
By Richard Gott
01/20/06 "The
Guardian" -- -- One of the most significant events
in 500 years of Latin American history will take place in
Bolivia on Sunday when Evo Morales, an Aymara Indian, is
inducted as president. People of indigenous origin have, on
occasion, risen to the top in Latin America. But Morales's
overwhelming election victory took place on a tide of indigenous
mobilisation that is especially powerful in Andean countries;
elections in Peru and Ecuador this year might also bring success
to indigenous movements.
The Rebellion of the Hanged is one of B Traven's novels of the
Mexican jungle, written in 1936. In these stories the Indians
turn slowly from rebellion to revolution, and something of that
spirit infuses the new mood in Latin America. The heirs to
pre-Columbian civilisations have conquered their distrust of
white "democracy" and are again moving to the front of the
historical stage. They do so as one of Kondratiev's long
economic waves has been sweeping through the continent like a
tsunami. The terrible impact of neoliberal economics is
reminiscent of the slump of the 30s that brought revolution to
many countries of Latin America.
Morales's victory is not just a symptom of economic breakdown
and age-old repression. It also fulfils a prophecy made by Fidel
Castro, who claimed the Andes would become the Americas' Sierra
Maestra - the Cuban mountains that harboured black and Indian
rebels over the centuries, as well as Castro's guerrilla band in
the 50s. His prophecy exercised US governments in the 60s.
Radical elected governments were destroyed by the armed forces -
guardians of the white settler states - supported by Washington.
Countries such as Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Bolivia were
prevented from following anything that might have resembled the
Cuban road.
Today the rules have changed. The cold war no longer provides an
excuse for intervention, and the US is stretched in other parts
of the world. The ballot box, for the first time in Latin
America, has become the strategy of choice for revolutionaries
and the poor majority. The result in Bolivia is a president who
invokes the memory of the silver miners of Potosi and Che
Guevara, who dreamed of a socialist commonwealth of Latin
America. Castro's prophecy looks close to fulfilment, and, in
his 80th year, he will go to Bolivia to savour the moment.
Another historic presence will be the shadow of Simón Bolívar,
the independence leader of the 19th century who also had faith
in the ability of the Andean provinces to change Latin America.
He drove the Spanish from the mountains, and finished his
battles in the country that was given his name. Hugo Chávez of
Venezuela, mentor of Morales and largely responsible for
channelling the new mood into revolutionary paths, will also be
present this weekend.
The "axis of good" - as Morales terms it - of Cuba, Venezuela
and Bolivia, is a huge threat to US political, economic and
cultural hegemony. It is also a challenge for Latin America's
traditional left, which has never had much success in coping
with indigenous populations. Now the representative of Bolivia's
farmers, tin miners and coca growers of indigenous ancestry is
to wear the presidential sash and seek their incorporation into
political life. They will be joined by more overtly socialist
groups that derive their legitimacy from half a century of union
work - an alliance that will be at least as problematic for the
president as US hostility and international companies seeking to
exploit Bolivia's oil and gas. These won't be nationalised but
will certainly have to pay higher royalties.
False dawns are common in Latin American history, but the
strength of the radical tide suggests that this time it will not
be dammed, still less reversed.
·Richard Gott is author of Cuba: A New History; and Hugo Chávez
and the Bolivarian Revolution rwgott@aol.com
© Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006
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