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U.S. Still Short in Iran Security Council Push
Permanent Members Russia, China Favor Less Formal Action on
Atomic Program
By Molly Moore
Washington Post Foreign Service
01/22/06 "Washington Post" -- -- PARIS, Jan. 21 -- The United
States has been unable to win international support to
officially report Iran to the U.N. Security Council, despite two
years of diplomatic efforts and defiant new actions by the
country to resume uranium enrichment research, according to
European diplomats involved in negotiations.
With the International Atomic Energy Agency scheduled to discuss
the crisis on Feb. 2, U.S. and European officials are
considering delaying a direct confrontation with Iran in return
for greater pressure from its allies to halt its enrichment
research, the European diplomats said. Some forms of enriched
uranium can be used to make nuclear weapons, though Iran
maintains its research will be used only to produce electrical
power.
Russia is concerned that a referral of Iran to the Security
Council would result in international sanctions against one of
its major trading partners. It has proposed a less formal
approach that would allow the Security Council to discuss Iran's
case and provide guidelines for compliance with international
demands, the diplomats said. European diplomats discussed the
negotiations on the condition they not be identified because of
the sensitivity and volatility of the ongoing talks.
"The Russians say we have to take a very gradual, incremental
approach," said a European diplomat close to the flurry of
shuttle diplomacy this week between European capitals and some
of Iran's closest allies, including Russia, China and India.
"The objective is now to use the time until Feb. 2 to build a
consensus. The wider the consensus, the stronger the message to
Iran."
The Bush administration's primary goal is to report Iran to the
Security Council, where the United States has more clout than it
does inside the IAEA and where Iran can be threatened with
sanctions. With stronger support from the Europeans in recent
weeks, the White House appears closer to reaching the Security
Council than at any time in the two years since it began the
push.
Talks between Iran and the group known as the EU3 -- Britain,
France and Germany -- broke down last fall, pushing the European
countries closer to Washington's position.
Officials say the United States and the Europeans are already
likely to win enough votes at the IAEA meeting to report Iran
but would then face problems seeking Security Council action
without the full support of Russia and China. As permanent
members of the council, they have veto power over its decisions.
"We are ready to take action," said an EU3 official close to the
negotiations. "At the same time, we have to get everybody on
board. Clearly Russia and China are not yet on board for
referral" to the Security Council.
"We want the IAEA board to remain united," the official said.
"It has to be carefully choreographed."
While several European diplomats said it was possible that
Russia and China could be persuaded to support a formal referral
to the Security Council, they also said Europeans are
increasingly inclined to accept a version of Russia's more
flexible proposal.
"The name of the game is to try to line up the international
community so the Iranians can't play one against the other,"
said Francois Heisbourg, who heads the Paris-based Foundation
for Strategic Research.
Pursuing an informal path would give Iran more time to respond
to questions from U.N. inspectors and to explore a possible deal
in which it would enrich uranium in Russia rather than at home.
If Iran provides the cooperation that inspectors say they need
and holds off on any additional research until the IAEA meets
again in March, it could greatly affect the council's response,
according to Western diplomats familiar with the negotiations.
On the other hand, if the IAEA board reports Iran to the
Security Council, Tehran has threatened to bar IAEA inspectors
from its facilities. Some IAEA board members consider the threat
so potentially serious threat that they support prolonging
negotiations.
European diplomats say they would like the Security Council to
issue a statement supporting the inspection process but keeping
the case under IAEA authority if Iran cooperates. But if Iran
cuts ties with the inspectors or begins assembling centrifuges
at its uranium enrichment plant, the Europeans would ask the
council to step in with tougher measures, such as considering a
resolution to force cooperation.
European officials are being dispatched to the capitals of all
key members of the 35-country IAEA board and are using
previously scheduled meetings and bilateral visits to try to
cement a consensus for pressure against Iran.
The United States is sending a large team to Vienna ahead of the
Feb. 2 IAEA session to meet with diplomats and promote its case.
While U.S. officials are saying publicly and privately that they
have no intention of seeking immediate sanctions against Iran,
they are not laying out their specific plan for action inside
the Security Council.
"That has some countries worried," according to a Western
diplomat, who said the Bush administration's strategy remained
overshadowed by the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
"The Iraq experience colors everything about Iran," said Mark
Fitzgerald, a nonproliferation expert at the London-based
International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former U.S.
State Department official. "Those who want to give Iran the
benefit of the doubt use the Iraq experience as a reason for
doing so: the misuse of intelligence, the mistakes in the
intelligence and the way the war has progressed."
Iranian diplomats also have been lobbying in Vienna and in other
capitals. Officials said the Iranians have been emphasizing that
they have not resumed enrichment work since cutting seals on
equipment this month. In private meetings, according to several
diplomats, the Iranians are also emphasizing willingness to
return to negotiations and increased interest in enriching their
uranium in Russia. Those messages are influencing some of the
IAEA board members, including several European countries that
want to avoid escalating the crisis, diplomats said.
Staff writer Dafna Linzer in Vienna contributed to this report.
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