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Does Bush Doctrine lead to Islamism?
By Pat Buchanan
01/28/06 "PittsburghLIVE"
-- -- The neoconservatives who dreamed
up the Bush Doctrine -- promoting "democracy" would be the U.S.
mission in the Middle East -- may be about to hold yet another
"Seconds Thoughts" conference.
Certainly, Israel must be having second thoughts on the folly of
having yielded to U.S. pressure and allowed Hamas to participate
in elections. For Hamas, which is dedicated to the destruction
of Israel and employs suicide-bomb attacks on civilians, has
just won a sweeping political and moral victory in Palestine.
Freedom and democracy are on the march, says President Bush.
Perhaps. But there is no doubt Islamism is on the march.
Not only is Hamas now the voice of Palestinian nationalism,
Hezbollah used elections to establish itself as the political
power in south Lebanon. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood swept
over half the parliamentary seats it was allowed to contest and
appears the probable beneficiary to the political estate of
President Mubarak.
In the Iraqi elections, Shia militants wiped up the floor with
secularists like ex-Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and Ahmed Chalabi.
In Iran, the dark horse who stormed to victory in the 2005
elections is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose commentaries on the
Holocaust and wiping Israel "off the map" have even the
Ayatollah nervous. In the two provinces of Pakistan that border
Afghanistan, pro-Taliban fundamentalists swept the boards in
recent elections.
That Zogby poll of 3,900 people in six Arab nations which
revealed rampant distrust of U.S. motives and widespread
detestation of Bush and Sharon appears to have been on the mark.
But what do we do now?
For Israel, it is an uncomplicated question. Both the "peace
process" and the "roadmap," agreed to by the European Union,
United Nations, Russia and the United States, have long been, as
Sharon aide Dov Weinglass put it, in "formaldehyde."
Israel will not negotiate with a government that includes Hamas
and will proceed on the course set by Sharon after Bush gave him
a green light in April 2004. Having pulled out of Gaza, Israel
will wall in all Jewish settlements surrounding Jerusalem and
the city itself, deny Palestinians any right of return, annex
the choicest cuts of the West Bank and leave the shank to the
Palestinians.
No one -- not the Palestinians, not the Arab world, not the EU
-- will accept this Bantustan solution, except the Americans.
But that is all that counts with Israelis -- be it Labor, Likud
or Kadima.
What will Bush do? Nothing. Any attempt to force Israel to
negotiate on settlements or East Jerusalem would put the White
House in a withering crossfire. The Christian right and neocons
would accuse him of a "Munich," while Democrats and the Israeli
lobby savage him for forcing Israel to "negotiate with
terrorists."
Down deep, Bush probably agrees with them.
But if Israel's course seems clear -- proceed to a separation of
the two peoples, wall herself in and rely on U.S. moral,
military and materiel support indefinitely -- what should U.S.
policy be?
Having touted elections as America's roadmap to peace, Bush
cannot credibly say we will only accept elected leaders who
share our views and values. But he should demand, as we did
after the Oslo Accords, that every party to any negotiation
renounce terror.
As for negotiating with terrorists like Hamas, is this not just
what Bush did when he agreed to lift sanctions on Khadafi, who
had been behind the air massacre of Pan Am 103? In return, Bush
got a commitment from Khadafi to compensate the victims'
families, surrender his weapons of mass destruction and forego
any right to build such weapons.
During the presidential campaign, Bush's men touted the Libya
agreement as a diplomatic triumph that proved the mailed fist in
Iraq had induced moderation in the Arab world.
As the situation is evolving in the Middle East, Bush is going
to have to modify or abandon his democracy crusade, or eat some
crow and start talking to the Islamists who get elected. As for
Israel, she may believe isolationism and reliance on America is
a winning strategy. Demography says otherwise.
Here are the latest UN population projections for mid-century
for Israel's neighbors, friend and foe.
Nation ---- Population in 2050
Lebanon ---- 5 million
West Bank, Gaza ---- 10 million
Jordan ---- 10 million
Syria ---- 36 million
Saudi Arabia ---- 49 million
Iraq ---- 64 million
Iran ---- 102 million
Egypt ---- 126 million
Of Jordan's 10 million, 6 million will be Palestinians. Of
Israel's estimated population of 10 million, 2.5 million to 3
million will be Arabs.
What recent elections tell us is that Arab peoples believe they
have been misruled by corrupt leaders, with U.S. support, and
the Palestinians have been brutalized, with U.S. support, and
their only hope lies in Islamic militants who understand this.
Whether Israel talks to these folks, or slams the door in their
faces, is her call. But if we do not wish to be as isolated, we
have to talk to them. For, in the Middle East, time does not
appear to be on our side.
© 2006 by The Tribune-Review Publishing Co
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