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Most Iraqis Doubt US Will Ever Leave
By Jim Lobe
01/31/06 "IPS"
-- -- WASHINGTON - Large majorities of Iraqis
believe that the United States has no intention of ever
withdrawing all its military forces from their country and that
Washington's reconstruction efforts have been incompetent at
best, according to a new survey released here Tuesday.
At the same time, however, only 35 percent of Iraqis -- most of
them Sunni Arabs -- believe coalition forces should withdraw
within six months, although if they did so, majorities said it
would have a beneficial impact, as many prominent Democrats and
other war critics here have argued.
Scepticism about U.S. plans in Iraq is particularly pronounced
among the country's Sunni population, who were far more negative
about virtually every aspect of post-invasion Iraq than their
counterparts in the Shi'a and Kurdish communities, which
together are believed to account for 75-80 percent of the
country's population.
Indeed, despite the strong Sunni Arab participation in
December's parliamentary elections, a whopping 88 percent of the
community approves of "attacks on U.S.-led forces" in Iraq, with
77 percent voicing "strong approval" -- a level of hostility
that presents a serious challenge for U.S. officials now
negotiating with Sunni insurgent leaders, as reported in the
Feb. 6 issue of Newsweek magazine.
By comparison, 41 percent of Shiites said they approved such
attacks, while 16 percent of Kurds, by far the most pro-U.S. of
the three groups, agreed.
The survey, the latest in a series that has probed Iraqi opinion
since the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion, was designed by the
Programme on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the
University of Maryland for WorldPublicOpinion.org and conducted
through face-to-face interviews of 1,150 randomly selected Iraqi
adults in all 18 Iraqi provinces in early January, three weeks
after the December elections.
While Sunni Arabs were over-represented in the sample, the data
was weighted according to each group's actual estimated share of
the total Iraqi population: Shia Arab, 55 percent; Sunni Arab,
22 percent; Kurd, 18 percent; and other groups, five percent.
The survey results, which come amid intensified jockeying in
Baghdad over the constitution of a new government, are a mixed
bag for the administration of Pres. George W. Bush.
His approval ratings in the U.S. have fallen dangerously over
the past year, in substantial part due to the perception that he
lacks a viable plan for "success" in Iraq, even as he rejects
pressure by Democrats and prominent members of the foreign
policy establishment to announce a timetable for the withdrawal
of the 140,000 U.S. troops there.
The survey found considerable scepticism about Bush's frequent
promises not to maintain U.S. military forces in Iraq "a day
longer" than is necessary for ensuring its stability.
Eighty percent of respondents said they believe the U.S. intends
to maintain permanent military bases in Iraq, including 79
percent of Shi'a Arabs, 92 percent of Sunnis, and two-thirds of
Kurds, some of whose leaders have quietly suggested that
Washington would be welcome to establish bases in Kurdistan in
northern Iraq.
More than three of four respondents (76 percent) said Washington
would also reject a request by any Iraqi government that emerges
from last month's elections to withdraw its forces within six
months. Two-thirds of Shiites said Bush would refuse to do so;
77 percent of Kurds; and a nearly unanimous 94 percent of Sunni
Arabs.
The survey also found broad support for the conclusions of an
all-party November conference convened by the Arab League,
which, with the apparent encouragement of U.S. Amb. Zalmay
Khalilzad, has tried to mediate among the various Iraqi
communities in order to prevent the country from disintegrating
and hasten an eventual withdrawal.
The conclusions on which all parties agreed included a rejection
of terrorist methods, particularly against civilians; the
inclusion of all groups in the political process; and the
establishment of a timetable for U.S. withdrawal.
Despite the approval, particularly in the Sunni community, of
attacks against U.S.-led forces in Iraq, the survey found nearly
99 percent rejection of terrorist methods and 97 percent
approval for an inclusive political process. It also found 87
percent support for establishing a timetable for withdrawal,
although Kurds were substantially less supportive of the idea
than the other two groups.
Among those who support a timetable, however, opinion was evenly
split at 35 percent favouring a withdrawal deadline of six
months and the same percentage preferring a "gradual" withdrawal
over two years. The finding was consistent with a November BBC
poll that found that two-thirds of Iraqis opposed "the presence
of coalition forces in Iraq", although that poll did not ask how
long they wanted the forces to remain.
The shorter period was most popular among Sunnis, 83 percent of
whom opted for the six-month option. By contrast, only 22
percent of Shi'a respondents favoured the six-month plan, while
49 percent preferred the two-year period. A majority of 57
percent of Kurds said foreign forces should leave only when the
situation improves.
Ironically, 41 percent of respondents who approve of attacks
against U.S.-led forces said they did not prefer the shorter
timetable.
"One possible explanation is that the attacks are not prompted
by a desire to bring about an immediate withdrawal, but to put
pressure on the U.S. so that it will eventually leave," said
PIPA director Steven Kull, who pointed to the prevailing
scepticism over Bush's promise to withdraw U.S. troops as soon
as Iraqi forces can take their place.
He said 90 percent of those who approve of attacks against
U.S.-led forces believe Washington wants to have permanent bases
in Iraq.
At the same time, majorities of Iraqis said they believed that
certain key conditions that fuel insecurity and fears of civil
war would improve. Two-thirds said the day-to-day security of
ordinary citizens would increase. Sixty-one percent said
inter-ethnic violence and the presence of foreign fighters would
decline.
Nearly three in four voiced confidence that contending factions
would be more likely to cooperate, and two-thirds said key
public services would improve, and crime would decline.
In each case, Sunni Arabs were distinctly more optimistic than
the other two major groups. Kurds, on the other hand, were most
doubtful.
Differences between the three groups were even more marked in
their assessments of the current political situation. While
two-thirds of all Iraqis said the December elections were free
and fair and the new parliament will be "the legitimate
representative of the Iraqi people", more than nine out of every
10 Sunnis disagreed with both propositions.
The survey found Sunnis in general to be much more negative
about the future. While nearly two-thirds of the whole sample
said Iraq is headed in the "right direction" -- a sharp increase
compared to 49 percent who said so in a pre-election survey by
the International Republican Institute (IRI) last November -- 93
percent of Sunnis said it was going in the wrong direction.
Copyright © 2006 IPS-Inter Press Service
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