battle-plans for Iran
By Mike Whitney
02/01/06 "ICH" -- -- In less than 24 hours the Bush
administration has won impressive victories on both domestic and
foreign policy fronts. At home, the far-right Federalist Society
alum, Sam Alito, has overcome the feeble resistance from Democratic
senators; ensuring his confirmation to the Supreme Court. Equally
astonishing, the administration has coerced both Russia and China
into bringing Iran before the United Nations Security Council
although (as Mohamed ElBaradei says) “There’s no evidence of a
nuclear weapons program.” The surprising capitulation of Russia and
China has forced Iran to abandon its efforts for further
negotiations; cutting off dialogue that might diffuse the volatile
“We consider any referral or report of Iran to the Security
Council as the end of diplomacy,” Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s
Supreme National Security Council, told state television.
The administration’s success with Iran ends the diplomatic
charade and paves the way for war. Now, UN Ambassador John Bolton
will appear before the Security Council making spurious allegations
of “noncompliance” that will rattle through the corporate media and
prepare the world for unilateral military action.
The administration has no hope of securing the votes needed for
sanctions or punitive action. The trip to the Security Council is
purely a ploy to provide the cover of international legitimacy to
another act of unprovoked aggression. The case has gone as far as it
will go excluding the requisite “touched up” satellite photos and
bogus allegations of unreliable dissidents.
We should now be focused on how Washington intends to carry out
its war plans, since war appears to be inevitable.
Those who doubt that the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld team will attack
Iran, while so conspicuously overextended in Iraq, are ignoring the
subtleties of the administration’s Middle East strategy.
Bush has no intention of occupying Iran. Rather, the goal is to
destroy major weapons-sites, destabilize the regime, and occupy a
sliver of land on the Iraqi border that contains 90% of Iran’s oil
wealth. Ultimately, Washington will aim to replace the Mullahs with
American-friendly clients who can police their own people and
fabricate the appearance of representative government. But, that
will have to wait. For now, the administration must prevent the
incipient Iran bourse (oil-exchange) from opening in March and
precipitating a global sell-off of the debt-ridden dollar. There
have many fine articles written about the proposed “euro-based”
bourse and the devastating effects it will have on the greenback.
The best of these are “Petrodollar
Warfare: Oil, Iraq and the Future of the Dollar” by William R. Clark, and “The
Proposed Oil Bourse” by Krassimir Petrov, Ph.D.
The bottom line on the
bourse is this; the dollar is underwritten
by a national debt that now exceeds $8 trillion dollars and trade
deficits that surpass $600 billion per year. That means that the
greenback is the greatest swindle in the history of mankind. It’s
utterly worthless. The only thing that keeps the dollar afloat is
that oil is traded exclusively in greenbacks rather than some other
currency. If Iran is able to smash that monopoly by trading in petro-euros then the world’s central banks will dump the greenback
overnight, sending markets crashing and the US economy into a
The Bush administration has no intention of allowing that to take
place. In fact, as the tax-cuts and the budget deficits indicate,
the Bush cabal fully intends to perpetuate the system that trades
worthless dollars for valuable commodities, labor, and resources. As
long as the oil market is married to the dollar, this system of
global indentured servitude will continue.
The Bush administration’s attention has shifted to a small
province in southwestern Iran that is unknown to most Americans.
Never the less, Khuzestan will become the next front in the war on
terror and the lynchpin for prevailing in the global resource war.
If the Bush administration can sweep into the region (under the
pretext disarming Iran’s nuclear weapons programs) and put Iran’s
prodigious oil wealth under US control, the dream of monopolizing
Middle East oil will have been achieved.
Not surprisingly, this was Saddam Hussein’s strategy in 1980 when
he initiated hostilities against Iran in a war that would last for
eight years. Saddam was an American client at the time, so it is
likely that he got the green-light for the invasion from the Reagan
White House. Many of Reagan’s high-ranking officials currently serve
in the Bush administration; notably Rumsfeld and Cheney.
Khuzestan represents 90% of Iran’s oil production. The control
over these massive fields will force the oil-dependent nations of
China, Japan and India to continue to stockpile greenbacks despite
the currency’s dubious value. The annexing of Khuzestan will prevent
Iran’s bourse from opening, thereby guaranteeing that the dollar
will maintain its dominant position as the world’s reserve currency.
As long as the dollar reigns supreme and western elites have their
hands on the Middle East oil-spigot, the current system of
exploitation through debt will continue into perpetuity. The
administration can confidently prolong its colossal deficits without
fear of a plummeting dollar. (In fact, the American war-machine and
all its various appendages, from Guantanamo to Abrams Tanks, are
paid for by the myriad nations who willingly hold reserves of
This extortion-scheme is typically referred to as the global
economic system. In reality, it has nothing to do with either free
markets or capitalism. That is just philosophical mumbo-jumbo. This
is the dollar-system; predicated entirely on the ongoing monopoly of
the oil trade in dollars.
In a recent article by Zolton Grossman,
“Khuzestan; the First Front in the War on Iran?”, Grossman cites the Beirut Daily Star
which predicts that the “"first step taken by an invading force
would be to occupy Iran's oil-rich Khuzestan Province, securing the
sensitive Straits of Hormuz and cutting off the Iranian military's
oil supply, forcing it to depend on its limited stocks."
This strategy has been called the “Khuzestan
Gambit”, and we can
expect that some variant of this plan will be executed following the
aerial bombardment of Iranian military installations and weapons
sites. If Iran retaliates, then there is every reason to believe
that either the United States or Israel will respond with low-yield,
bunker-busting nuclear weapons. In fact, the Pentagon may want to
demonstrate its eagerness to use nuclear weapons do deter future
adversaries and to maintain current levels of troop deployments
without a draft.
Tonkin Bay Redux
On January 28, 2006, Iranian officials announced that they would
“hand over evidence that proved British involvement in bombings in
the southern city of Ahvaz earlier in the week” that killed eight
civilians and wounded 46 others. This was just one of the many
bombings, incitements, and demonstrations that have taken place in
Khuzestan in the last year that suggest foreign intervention. The
action is strikingly similar to the 2 British commandoes who were
apprehended in Basra a few months ago dressed as Arabs with a
truckload of explosives during the week of religious festival.
But, step by step, Iran is being set up for war. What difference
does the provocation make? The determination to consolidate the oil
reserves in the Caspian Basin was made more than a decade ago and is
clearly articulated in the policy papers produced by the Project for
the New American Century (PNAC) The Bush administration is one small
province away from realizing the its dream of controlling the
world’s most valued resource. They won’t let that opportunity pass