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Rumsfeld Offers Strategies for Current War
Pentagon to Release 20-Year Plan Today
By Josh White and Ann Scott Tyson
Washington Post Staff Writers
02/03/06 "Washington
Post' -- -- The United States is engaged in
what could be a generational conflict akin to the Cold War, the
kind of struggle that might last decades as allies work to root
out terrorists across the globe and battle extremists who want
to rule the world, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said
yesterday.
Rumsfeld, who laid out broad strategies for what the military
and the Bush administration are now calling the "long war,"
likened al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden to Adolf Hitler and
Vladimir Lenin while urging Americans not to give in on the
battle of wills that could stretch for years. He said there is a
tendency to underestimate the threats that terrorists pose to
global security, and said liberty is at stake.
"Compelled by a militant ideology that celebrates murder and
suicide with no territory to defend, with little to lose, they
will either succeed in changing our way of life, or we will
succeed in changing theirs," Rumsfeld said in a speech at the
National Press Club.
The speech, which aides said was titled "The Long War," came on
the eve of the Pentagon's release of its Quadrennial Defense
Review (QDR), which sets out plans for how the U.S. military
will address major security challenges 20 years into the future.
The plans to be released today include shifts to make the
military more agile and capable of dealing with unconventional
threats, something Rumsfeld has said is necessary to move from a
military designed for the Cold War into one that is more
flexible.
He said the nation must focus on three strategies in the ongoing
war: preventing terrorists from obtaining weapons of mass
destruction, defending the U.S. homeland and helping allies
fight terrorism. He emphasized that these goals could take a
long time to achieve.
Indeed, the QDR, mandated every four years by Congress, opens
with the declaration: "The United States is a nation engaged in
what will be a long war."
The review has been widely anticipated in Washington defense
circles because of the dramatic changes in the U.S. military's
global role since the last review in 2001. Adding to the high
expectations is the fact that Rumsfeld and his team have now
been in place for more than four years.
The QDR strategy draws heavily on lessons learned by the
military from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the worldwide
campaign against terrorism, shifting the Pentagon's emphasis
away from conventional warfare of the Cold War era toward three
new areas.
First are "irregular" conflicts against insurgents, terrorists
and other non-state enemies. Iraq and Afghanistan are the "early
battles" in the campaign against Islamic extremists and
terrorists, who are "profoundly more dangerous" than in the past
because of technological advances that allow them to operate
globally, said Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon R. England in an
address on Wednesday.
The QDR also focuses on defending the U.S. homeland against
"catastrophic" attacks such as with nuclear, chemical or
biological weapons. Finally, it sets out plans for deterring the
rising military heft of major powers such as China.
The strategic vision outlined in the QDR has won high marks from
defense analysts for diagnosing the problems the U.S. military
will likely face. However, it is less successful in translating
those concepts into concrete military capabilities, the analysts
say.
The review does not dramatically change the "force construct" --
the set of world contingencies that the U.S. military is
expected to be able to deal with. The most important change is
the recognition that U.S. forces may have to carry out long-term
stability operations, or surge suddenly to a world hot spot.
There are not "huge tectonic shifts," said Adm. Edmund P.
Giambastiani, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in an
address Wednesday.
The strategy does call for devoting resources to accelerate a
long-range strike capability directed at hostile nations, and
for new investments aimed at countering biological and nuclear
weapons -- such as teams able to defuse a nuclear bomb. But it
makes relatively minor adjustments in key weapons systems, with
the biggest programs such as the Joint Strike Fighter and the
Army's Future Combat Systems escaping virtually unscathed. This
leaves less room for investments in innovative programs and
forces to address the types of problems that the QDR identifies,
analysts say.
"A lot of tough choices are kicked down the road," said Andrew
F. Krepinevich, executive director of the Center for Strategic
and Budgetary Assessments.
One of the toughest battles facing the United States, Rumsfeld
said yesterday, is recognizing the seriousness of the terrorist
threat and the immediacy of fighting the nation's enemies. He
said the task facing Western nations could be arduous, as
terrorists operate in numerous countries around the world,
hidden, and with the willingness to wait long periods between
attacks. Military leaders and officials in the Bush
administration have taken to calling the global war on terrorism
the "long war," which defense experts say is a recognition that
there is no end in sight.
"Dealing with the issue of terrorism and extremism is going to
take a long time," said Robert E. Hunter, senior adviser at Rand
Corp. and a former ambassador to NATO. "But we have to define
success. You're never going to get rid of all terrorism."
Rumsfeld said he does not believe the war will end with a bang
but, instead, with a whimper, "fading down over a sustained
period of time as more countries in the world are successful,"
much as how democracy outlasted communism in the Cold War. He
added that the early decades of the Cold War also brought
confusion and doubt.
"The only way that terrorists can win this struggle is if we
lose our will and surrender the fight, or think it's not
important enough, or in confusion or in disagreement among
ourselves give them the time to regroup and reestablish
themselves in Iraq or elsewhere," he said.
© 2006 The Washington Post Company
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