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Kicking the habit, all over the world
By Michael T. Klare
02/11/06 "Los
Angeles Times" -- -- PRESIDENT BUSH was right to
say that the United States is "addicted to oil" in his State of
the Union address. For too long we have been consuming
ever-greater quantities of the stuff without paying heed to the
political, economic and environmental hazards involved. Bush
also made some useful, if timid, suggestions on how to curb our
insatiable thirst for oil. But he failed to address a critical
aspect of the problem: Other countries, including China and
India, are just as addicted to oil, and unless we strive to
suppress their appetites along with our own, the problems we
face will continue to multiply.
For decades, the United States has been the world's leading
consumer of petroleum, devouring about one-fourth of the global
supply daily. Although higher gasoline prices have weakened
demand slightly, we are still expected to consume 27% more oil
in 2025 than we do today, according to the latest Department of
Energy projections. But an even greater increase in demand is
expected from Asia. China's oil consumption is expected to rise
by 97% between 2004 and 2025, and India's by 78%. The resulting
demand crunch could easily overwhelm the global supply of
petroleum.
In the U.S., oil demand is largely spurred by Americans'
collective love affair with the automobile. We also own far more
vehicles, on a per-capita basis, than any other large nation.
But all indications are that Chinese and Indian consumers are
beginning to emulate us: In 2001, 16 million Chinese owned
private cars; by 2020, the number is expected to hit 130
million; India's ownership rate is expected to grow just as
fast.
The rising demand for oil in rapidly developing countries has
enormous implications for the United States. To begin with, it
is driving up energy prices for American consumers. With global
petroleum supplies tighter than they have been in decades, and
China and India competing with the U.S. for available supplies,
the price is bound to rise. A year ago, the Energy Department
was predicting that oil prices would hover in the $30 to $35 a
barrel range over the next 20 years; now it is projecting $50 to
$55 a barrel for that same period. Some energy analysts expect
prices to climb even higher, especially if China's economy
continues to grow at 10% a year and the global supply of oil
fails to keep pace.
But this is the least of our problems. In their quest for
foreign sources of petroleum, China and India are buying up
fields around the world and, in some cases, forging close ties
with such states as Iran, Sudan, Uzbekistan and Venezuela, which
are considered unfriendly or even hostile to the U.S.
"A more troubling aspect of the recent surge in overseas energy
deals by China and India is their willingness to invest in
countries that are pursuing policies that are harmful to global
stability," Assistant Secretary of State E. Anthony Wayne told
the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in July. For example,
"both Chinese and Indian firms have reportedly been involved in
oil and gas-sector deals in Iran that raise concerns under U.S.
law and policy." This is especially true when such investment is
accompanied by arms and military technology, as has been the
case with Chinese links to Iran and Sudan.
It is easy to condemn Beijing and New Delhi for such behavior,
but it's hardly surprising that they're prepared to shop
anywhere for oil. Under these circumstances, the world is likely
to become increasingly well-armed and unstable, posing acute
dangers for the U.S. whether or not we reduce our own
consumption of petroleum.
And this is not the only danger we face. The U.S. is the leading
emitter of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere, thus heightening the risk of catastrophic climate
change. If we implement Bush's proposed initiatives and consume
less petroleum (which accounts for the largest share of our
carbon emissions), we stand a chance of slowing climate change.
But, according to the Energy Department, developing nations in
Asia now account for about 19% of the world's oil-related carbon
emissions (compared with 24% for the U.S.); by 2025, their share
is projected to rise to 28%.
It follows from all this that it is not enough to curb the U.S.
addiction to oil. We also need to work with China, India and
other oil-addicted countries to curb their fast-growing demand.
This means persuading the leaders of those countries to adopt
the same sort of initiatives as those proposed by Bush. Even
better, the president should invite them to join the U.S. in
these efforts as equal partners. U.S. companies should also be
encouraged to form partnerships with foreign firms to develop
new energy alternatives and transportation systems that would
spur economic growth in participating countries.
Yes, Americans are addicted to petroleum, but so are others
around the world. Unless we work together to curb its harmful
effects, we will all suffer from the resulting damage.
MICHAEL T. KLARE, a professor at Hampshire College, is the
author of "Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of
America's Growing Petroleum Dependency."
Copyright 2006 Los Angeles Times
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