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West may have to live with low-level Iranian atom work
By Mark Heinrich
02/19/06 "Reuters"
-- -- The crisis over Iran's atomic agenda is
deepening, but the world's nuclear watchdog chief has warned
there may be no choice but to accept limited uranium enrichment
by Tehran, diplomats say.
For a mistrustful West, the quid pro quo would be to give U.N.
inspectors more intrusive powers via a Security Council
resolution to prevent suspected atomic bomb projects.
Tehran in turn would have to pledge no industrial-scale
enrichment of uranium.
Countries on the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) have called for the Iranian controversy to be referred to
the U.N. Security Council by March 6.
Iran hit back by breaking a moratorium on enrichment, the
process of making fuel for atomic plants or, potentially, bombs.
The board vote has driven Iran into a corner under a banner of
national pride and risks paralyzing the Council given that
veto-holding Russia and China reject sanctions on Tehran mooted
by Washington, IAEA veterans say.
IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei will make no recommendations in a
broad report on three years of probes in Iran he is to give to
board members on February 27, a week before they convene to
weigh whether to urge a course of action by the Security
Council.
But he has already suggested in diplomatic circles that a
compromise may lie in accepting small-scale enrichment in Iran
in exchange for guarantees of no full nuclear fuel production
that could enable diversions into bomb-making, diplomats say.
IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said ElBaradei was still
advocating publicly and privately that Iran take steps to earn
international confidence by shelving enrichment-related work and
cooperating fully with agency investigations.
"He has also told diplomats that Natanz (pilot enrichment plant)
is Iran's bottom line, a sovereignty issue, a reality we may
have to deal with," a diplomat close to the IAEA, who asked for
anonymity due to the subject's sensitivity, said.
"Nothing of consequence will happen in the Security Council
because the Russians and Chinese will block sanctions," the
diplomat said of the two non-Western big powers determined to
protect massive energy investments and trade with Iran.
IRAN RECEPTIVE TO ELBARADEI IDEA
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has welcomed
ElBaradei's idea as a potential way to dispel Western suspicions
Tehran seeks atomic bombs, while retaining its "irrefutable
right to acquire nuclear technology" for electricity generation.
As an incentive for Iran to renounce its goal of industrial
enrichment, Russia has offered to provide it purified uranium
under a joint venture. This could prevent development of fissile
fuel on Iranian soil that might be siphoned into warheads.
Iran agreed to negotiations on the idea in Moscow this week but
its Atomic Energy Organization chief warned Iran would accept no
deal excluding enrichment at home.
"We are a nuclear country. The (West) knows it has no other
choice but to negotiate," Gholamreza Aghazadeh told state
television, adding that Iran had invited Western countries to
invest in Natanz and be present on site.
"There is no greater objective guarantee (against bomb-building)
we can provide to the world," he said.
Last week Iran resumed test-feeding of uranium UF6 gas into a
few centrifuges, which spin at supersonic speeds to yield fuel
for nuclear plants or, if enriched to high levels, for warheads.
Analysts believe it may take Iran months to revive a cascade of
164 centrifuges corroded by disuse, and considerably longer to
hurdle technological barriers to running the minimum 1,000 that
would be needed to make fuel for a single crude bomb.
But U.S. and EU leaders, citing Tehran's past record of hiding
nuclear work from the IAEA, object that to give Iran any leeway
to ramp up UF6 production will hand it the know-how to "break
out" with a nuclear arsenal whenever it so chooses.
Then it will be too late to prevent Iran endangering world
peace, they say, pointing to the Islamic Republic's calls for
Israel's destruction and alleged support for Muslim militants.
NAIVE COMPROMISE?
"ElBaradei's suggestion seems naive ... If the Iranians get the
compromise he's raised, they're likely to demand more
concessions, especially operating more centrifuges," said David
Albright, a former IAEA inspector in Iraq and director of the
Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.
Iran cites a right to develop civilian nuclear energy as a party
to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Toughening the NPT may be the only viable way out of the crisis
given Security Council deadlock over sanctions and Iran's
promise to enrich under IAEA monitoring, some analysts say.
"There's talk of the Council passing a resolution giving the
IAEA much more intrusive powers applicable to all NPT states, so
Iran can't claim discrimination as it does now. It's an
imperfect compromise, but maybe the only one the West can get."
(additional reporting by Paul Hughes in Tehran)
Copyright © 2006 Reuters Limited.
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