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Growing Threat Seen In Afghan Insurgency
DIA Chief Cites Surging Violence in Homeland
By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
03/01/06 "Washington
Post" -- -- The director of the Defense
Intelligence Agency told Congress yesterday that the insurgency in
Afghanistan is growing and will increase this spring, presenting a
greater threat to the central government's expansion of authority
"than at any point since late 2001."
"Despite significant progress on the political front, the
Taliban-dominated insurgency remains a capable and resilient
threat," Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples said in a statement presented to
the Senate Armed Services Committee at its annual hearing on
national security threats.
Appearing with Director of National Intelligence John D. Negroponte,
Maples said attacks within Afghanistan were up 20 percent between
2004 and 2005, suicide bombings increased "almost fourfold" and use
of makeshift bombs, similar to those used in Iraq, had "more than
doubled."
Negroponte, in his prepared remarks, acknowledged that "the volume
and geographic scope of attacks increased last year," but he added,
"the Taliban and other militants have not been able to stop the
democratic process" being undertaken by the central government of
President Hamid Karzai.
Unlike at a similar hearing last month before the Senate Select
Committee on Intelligence, when Negroponte read his statement for 90
minutes, he summarized his remarks yesterday in 20 minutes, and
turned the floor over to Maples, who took even less time.
As a result, committee members had time to pose questions on a range
of issues, covering Afghanistan, security in Iraq, North Korea's
nuclear programs and the purchase by Dubai Ports World of a British
company running terminals at six American ports.
Maples's prepared remarks seemed to frame some of the initial
questions, including his statements that, "with over a million Sunni
Arab military-aged males in Iraq, insurgents have little difficulty
mobilizing enough fighters." He also said, "The elections appear to
have heightened tension and polarized sectarian divides."
Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.), chairman of the panel, led off by
asking Negroponte what the "benchmarks" of civil war would be.
Negroponte responded he would see it as involving "a complete loss
of central government security control, the disintegration or
deterioration of the security forces of the country," and
"unauthorized forces . . . getting the upper hand in the situation."
Both Negroponte and Maples agreed that the degree to which Shiite
and Kurd leaders accommodated Sunni demands would determine the
outcome. Failure to broaden the government to include Sunnis in key
positions "would have the effect of prolonging the insurgency,"
Negroponte said. Although they both said Iran was providing military
support to the Shiites, Maples said he did not think it was in
Iran's interest to see a full-scale civil war and Tehran "would
probably act to avoid that."
On North Korea, Negroponte declined as he has in the past to provide
a specific estimate of the number of nuclear weapons Pyongyang may
have. "We assess that they probably have nuclear weapons as they
claim that they do," Negroponte said, "but we don't know for a fact
that they've got such weapons."
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), who pressed the issue, noted
that CIA Director Porter J. Goss had publicly said the number was
"more than one or two," and asked Negroponte what the current
unclassified estimate was. "I'm just reluctant to pinpoint a
specific number because I don't want to convey the impression that
we know for a fact that they have that many weapons," Negroponte
said.
Under questioning from Clinton, Maples confirmed the North Koreans
are in the process of developing an intercontinental ballistic
missile that could deliver a nuclear warhead, though the DIA
director added, "They have not done so yet nor have they tested it."
© 2006 The Washington Post Company
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