Iran impasse: Make gas, not bombs
By Pepe Escobar
05/08/06 "
Asia Times" -- -- Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei has ruled - and expressly told Revolutionary Guard
commanders - that nuclear weapons are against Islam, and cannot
be used in war even for self-defense. For all practical purposes
- and with International Atomic Energy Agency confirmation -
Tehran is pursuing a civilian nuclear program. Virtually the
whole country is behind the theocratic nationalist regime in
this effort.
Moreover, the regime knows that both China and Russia will
oppose any excessive action by the administration of US
President George W Bush. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki
said recently that both countries had "officially" informed Iran
about "their opposition to sanctions and a military attack".
On Sunday, Iran's parliament threatened to force the government
to withdraw its agreement to allow unannounced inspections of
its nuclear facilities under the nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT). The move follows pressure from Washington and its
allies for a binding United Nation Security Council resolution
demanding that Tehran suspend its uranium-enrichment program.
The United States is behind attempts by Britain and France to
draw up a UN resolution that would declare Iran in violation of
international law if it does not suspend uranium enrichment.
They want to invoke Chapter 7 of the UN Charter that would
authorize economic sanctions or even military action. Russia and
China, the other two permanent Security Council members, oppose
such action.
Iran has important links with Moscow. The Russian-Iranian
contract for the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant
was signed in 1995. Their geopolitical concerns in the Caucasus
and Central Asia - to fight both US influence and Sunni
fundamentalism - coincide. Iran is a preferential client of
Russian weapons - including anti-aircraft systems capable of
protecting Iran's nuclear installations from US strikes.
The Iranian regime does not take Bush's "regime change" rhetoric
seriously (see What's really happening in Tehran, April 26). But
even if there were a military attack, the regime is sure it
would make Washington pay a very heavy price - in Iraq,
Palestine and the oil markets.
Western accusations aside, most observers assert that Iran would
not be able to manufacture a nuclear weapon for at least the
next five years. But the Revolutionary Guards, which are in
operational charge of the nuclear program, may believe Iran
could approach this development without incurring excessive
risk. They, but not necessarily the theocratic leadership, may
be convinced that only as a nuclear-weapons state will they be
able to counter a US attack.
Is there a way out of this fatalistic scenario? Yes, there is.
The way out would depend on Iran's theocratic nationalism
reaching an agreement among the factions vying for power in
Tehran. In essence, there has to be a consensus that for the
national interest, Iran does not need a nuclear bomb; what it
needs is to export its wealth of natural gas. And no customer
would be happier to buy it than Europe.
Enno Harks, a senior fellow on energy and resources at the
German Institute for International and Security Affairs, and
Friedmann Muller, head of the research group Global Issues at
the same institute, were both in Tehran recently for an energy
conference. Their studies and conclusions are important to
understanding what's at stake in the convoluted relationship
between the European Union and Iran and how ostracizing and
sanctioning Iran may turn out to be yet another case of the EU
shooting itself in the foot.
Muller emphasizes that 10 of the current 25 EU member states
depend on Russia for more than 50% of their total natural-gas
supplies, and five of them for 100%. France, Germany and Italy
import between 25% and 50% each. Muller is doing nothing but
echoing a fierce ongoing debate in Brussels on whether the EU's
dependence on Russian gas is desirable and sustainable - in
terms of security as well as politically.
Harks points out how Europe today is by far the world's biggest
natural-gas import market - and will remain so at least until
2030. According to projections by the International Energy
Agency, by 2030 North America will import just less than 200
billion cubic meters of gas a year, China/India some 85 billion
cubic meters and Europe more than 530 billion cubic meters.
"Europe thus amounts to almost double the two regions added
together," said Harks.
Muller notes how Russia is fiercely pushing a so-called Eurasian
Natural Gas Alliance, "the purpose of which is to channel as
large a portion of natural-gas supply as possible via the
post-Soviet pipeline network and thus to monopolize the European
natural-gas market".
Harks said that "according to the optimistic scenario in the
Russian energy strategy to 2020, gas exports to Western Europe
will rise by only approximately 30 billion cubic meters over the
period". And even these projections are not assured because they
involve the successful development and financing of at least one
of two giant northern Russian fields.
Then there's the intractable problem of Russia's grip on Central
Asian gas. As Harks explains it, "Long-term gas-supply contracts
between Russia and Turkmenistan at far below market price give
Russia some leeway concerning their own production decline and
export contracts. But at the same time, they will delay domestic
gas-market reform - a situation that will seriously constrain
necessary investment in Russia and reduce its export potential
to Europe."
In short, Russia by itself will not solve Europe's gas thirst,
especially because Russia also wants to export heavily to both
China and Japan.
So Europe will have to find the gas it needs somewhere else -
North Africa and the Caribbean, for instance. But most of all it
will need Iran. Iran holds 15% of total world proven gas
reserves - positioned only behind Russia. It is much closer to
Europe than the West Siberian gas fields, and eventually it
could share a border with the EU itself (should Turkey be
accepted as a member).
Iran and Qatar hold the second- and third-largest reserves in
the world. This means that in tandem they have more natural gas
than Russia. For the moment, as a practical matter, they do not
export to Europe. There are no pipelines - at least none yet;
and liquefied natural gas (LNG) has to be transported by long
sea routes or aboard expensive small tankers.
Muller is adamant; natural-gas production is cheaper in Iran,
Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and even North Africa (in other
countries apart from Algeria) than in Western Siberia. As Muller
explained, "The excessive infrastructure linking Siberia to
Europe is a product of the Cold War. After the dissolution of
the Soviet Union, this argument no longer carries any weight."
The smoking (gas) gun
Harks is convinced Iran is the best solution for Europe's energy
problem, diversifying supply sources that up until now have in
essence been Russia (65% of imports) and Algeria (25% of
imports). Together, Russia and Algeria hold barely 30% of the
worlds's natural-gas reserves - "while around 80% of reserves
are located within a 4,000-kilometer radius of Central Europe",
said Muller.
The Holy Grail is a branch of "Pipelineistan" from Iran to
Europe: the Nabucco Gas Pipeline Project, sponsored by an
Austrian company, OMV (which is a small European player in the
business), and tentatively scheduled to start operating in 2011.
What is needed above all is "greater political will on both the
Iranian and European sides", said Muller. An enlarged Nabucco
pipeline could transport not only Iranian but also Azerbaijani,
Turkmen and even Qatari gas to Europe.
Harks warns that such an approach would "contradict long-term US
containment policy on one side and Russia's inherent dreams of a
Central Asian gas alliance on the other". But it could be a
win-win situation for both Europe and Iran. Brussels has to act
fast - otherwise China will spare no effort to get all that gas
for its own gargantuan needs. And Tehran has to act fast -
otherwise the Bush administration's war logic may prevail.
Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd.
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