Israeli Air Force will likely make a pre-emptive strike against Syria

Stratfor Intelligence Report

07/13/06 "Statfor.com" -- --

Analysis

The Israel Defense Forces is preparing for a major, sustained assault into southern Lebanon to eliminate the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The assault will extend at least to the Litani River -- the first natural barrier, roughly 20 miles into Lebanon -- and possibly all the way to areas south of Beirut. The advance might have been intended for July 16, when the reservists of the Israeli Northern Command who were just activated will have had 72 hours to spin up. However, since rockets fired from Lebanon hit Israel's port city of Haifa on July 13, Israel's 7th Armored, Golani and Barak Brigades -- some of the elite and most decorated units of the regular Israeli army -- might push ahead as far as the Litani and let the reservists catch up later.

If the IDF makes this push into Lebanon, the Golani Brigade likely will advance in the east, along the Syrian border to the Bekaa

Valley. Its advance probably will be accompanied by air assaults delivering infantry units to the villages at the valley's base. Penetrating the more populated areas further up the valley will involve difficult, urban fighting.

The Barak Brigade, which received the state-of-the-art Merkava Mark 3 tank in 2005, will advance up the coast along a difficult and potentially mined highway. A Merkava tank was already destroyed by a mine July 12 containing a powerful charge that could have been shaped to penetrate heavy armor. If this is the case, it almost certainly came from foreign sources, either Iran or beyond.

The 7th Armored Brigade will advance up the middle, ready to reinforce either the left or right flank. It also could encounter mines. Besides anti-tank mines, Hezbollah is thought to possess anti-tank missiles more advanced than the 1970s-era Soviet AT-3 Sagger anti-tank missile. If Hezbollah's arsenal is sufficiently advanced and properly employed, it could effectively challenge Israeli armor.

The longer the IDF waits to push into Lebanon, and the more brigades it amasses, the more likely the Israelis are planning to drive all the way into areas south of Beirut. A push to the Litani would involve about five brigades; a deeper invasion would involve seven to 12.

There will be, at the very minimum, heavy Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses operations by the Israeli air force (IAF) along the Syrian border. The IAF will at least heavily jam Syrian radar and employ all the electronic countermeasures it has. If Syria does not make a compelling public statement of abstaining from involvement in the conflict, the IAF will likely make a pre-emptive strike against the Syrian air defense network, which Israeli planes successfully penetrated in June, buzzing Syrian President Bashar al Assad's private residence.

Despite the political stunt flyby, Syria's air defense network is still amply equipped and its air force boasts, among other aircraft, 80 MiG-29 and 10 Su-27 fighters. Operationally, Syria has always crumbled when it faced the IDF, and its air defense and pilot training regimens are certainly below par. But nevertheless, Syria's air defense network extends over much of southern Lebanon and poses a very real danger to IAF operations over Lebanon. Israel successfully devastated this air force in 1982 in a pre-emptive strike. If the Israelis decide that Syria might resist their efforts in Lebanon, Israel will not hesitate to take the network out. A devastating pre-emptive strike is preferable to a protracted engagement with the whole air defense network at full alert -- a much more complex endeavor that would detract from operations in Lebanon. As long as the Israelis leave Syrian assets intact, they fight with an exposed right flank.

The near future will almost certainly see small firefights as Israeli special forces reconnaissance units take up more positions inside Lebanon. Of course, the bulk of these units will go undetected. IDF shelling and airstrikes will continue unabated. Depending on Hezbollah's endurance and survivability, their rockets will continue to fly as well.

As its forces gather and reservists kick into high gear, Israel stands on the verge of attempting to completely annihilate Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

© Copyright 2006 Strategic Forecasting Inc.

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