.  "O
what a lovely war": Israel uses a "monstrous event" for
personal gain. By
Uzi Benziman. Ha'aretz
A new Middle East
The Israeli government is vying with the American administration in its
eagerness to see the war plan put into action. And if President Bush seems
to be acting out of a sense of religious mission - as if God has charged
him with the task of uprooting the axis of evil, starting with Saddam
Hussein - Ariel Sharon is awaiting the American operation in the desperate
hope that salvation will follow in its wake.
Sharon isn't alone; the entire ruling establishment - the political
echelon and the senior echelon of the public sector, the top military and
intelligence officials, business leaders and the politicians who are
trying to put together a coalition - all are waiting for the war in the
expectation that it will bring about a yearned-for turning point in the
country's grim situation. One could say that Israel is looking for Ares,
the ancient Greek god of war, to play the part of the deus ex machina in
this drama. An almost pagan faith has been placed in the potential
blessings of the American war on Iraq.
An assessment made by the IDF and the intelligence community predicts that
the defeat of Saddam Hussein (the presumed outcome of the American action)
will send shock waves through the region that will lead to big changes in
the neighboring countries. According to this forecast, the entire world -
and the Arab world in particular - will be affected by the determination
displayed by the U.S. in its struggle against the tyrant from Baghdad, and
will learn certain lessons. Arab rulers, including Bashar Assad, Sheikh
Nasrallah and Yasser Arafat, will understand that the U.S. will no longer
tolerate their involvement in terrorist activity. And, as a result, their
approach to Israel could change.
The main hope in Israel is that Saddam's removal from Baghdad will hasten
the processes of change taking place within the Palestinian leadership,
which the intelligence services and the political echelon say are already
discernible. The belief is that disgruntlement with Arafat and the
realization that he has brought disaster to the Palestinian people will
gain momentum and be translated into a process that leads to his
neutralization. The assessment is that an alternative leadership -
composed of Abu Ala, Abu Mazen, Salem Fayad and Mohammed Dahlan - has
already coalesced. This group is ready to take on the leadership of the
Palestinian Authority (and ostensibly has already agreed on a division of
roles), but it will not come forward as long as Arafat refuses to step
aside.
Although there doesn't appear to be any Palestinian Brutus ready to do
away with Arafat, the hope in Israel is that after the war in Iraq,
circumstances will be created that will make it possible to remove him
from a position of influence. The prevailing feeling in Jerusalem is that
the leaders of Egypt and Jordan, as well as the leaders of the European
countries that have been involved in trying to resolve the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, share this vision. President Bush gave the
nod to this process long ago.
Another hope is that the war will nudge Israel out of economic recession.
In Jerusalem, they believe it will recharge the West's economy and create
new opportunities for the Israeli economy. With war as the backdrop, it
will be easier for Israel to receive American aid and loan guarantees,
since it will certainly be included in the list of countries (like Turkey)
that U.S. Congress will seek to compensate for special expenses caused by
the war.
The coalition negotiations could also be affected by the war. Sharon is
timing his moves so that there is an overlap between the forming of the
government and developments on the Iraqi front. He anticipates the war
will create circumstances or alter outlooks in a way that will increase
his bargaining power versus the other parties and their leaders. Even if
Israel is not directly affected by the battles, the campaign in Iraq could
still change the political and security situations.
Accepting that an event on the magnitude of an American assault on Iraq
could upset the status quo and bring major changes in its wake, it's still
hard to shake the feeling that what the fervency of Israeli expectations
regarding the war really attests to is despair. The dependence of the
country's leadership on the power of an extreme and violent external force
of this kind only attests to the total bankruptcy of its ability to manage
its affairs in the normal way.
Sharon is incapable of dealing directly with the tremendous burden that
the conflict with the Palestinians is placing on the country; he cannot
extricate the country from the severe economic crisis; he has not found
any way to improve the hostile relations between Israel and its neighbors
to the north; and he is having a hard time forming a coalition to his
liking. Sharon is pinning his hopes on a foreign power, on external
developments, on war - which by its nature is a monstrous event. This is a
wretched reflection on him and all the ministers, officials and officers
he purports to lead.
2. The swinging pendulum
Starting next week, the drumbeats of war between the United States and
Iraq will grow increasingly louder. The Israeli public will hear them in
the messages coming from the defense establishment and in the raised level
of alert. Sometime within the next two to three weeks, the country will
enter an emergency situation, even if there is no immediate official
declaration of it. Once the American assault commences, Israel will enter
a new state of preparedness, the agenda will change and a more acute level
of tension will envelop the public and impact its mood and behavior. The
greatest anxiety will be over the chance of missiles, perhaps armed with
nonconventional warheads, landing here.
Every responsible regime must prepare for such a possibility, and this
government has certainly given it much thought. The real test, though, is
in the type of preparations made and how they hold up at the moment of
truth - if it should arrive. When pre-school teachers are showing their
charges gas masks and explaining what they are, one may ask if this the
correct type of preparation. When mayors and council heads distribute
letters to local residents informing them that alternative lodgings have
been arranged in case of a missile attack, one can wonder about the type
of preparations. And when the public is told that space in certain parks
has been designated for the temporary burial of mass casualties, then the
question is even greater.
These criticisms are pertinent because it appears that the various kinds
of self-defense initiatives being taken do not always derive directly from
instructions from the government or the Home Front Command. For example,
the efforts by local council heads to move out a large number of residents
in an organized way are obviously influenced by their desire to
demonstrate concern for their constituents on the eve of municipal
elections. The decision to expose pre-schoolers to gas masks and the
dangers they imply came from the Education Ministry, with the approval of
the Home Front Command; the teachers were instructed not to put the masks
on the children, but only to show the equipment to them so they would not
be completely unfamiliar with it.
The problem is that ever since a war between the U.S. and Iraq became a
real possibility, the messages that the government has been sending the
public have veered all over the place: From discussions about inoculating
the entire population against smallpox (a proposal that was eventually
rejected) to the reassuring statements by the defense minister and chief
of staff that the danger of missiles armed with nonconventional warheads
falling on Israel is minute; from the focus on defending the home front
from missiles or aerial bombings by Iraqi planes to the more recent
assertion that the main danger lies in terror attacks that could be
carried out against Jewish and Israeli targets abroad. In a situation of
uncertainty, the pendulum swings between outright panic and hysterical
calm.
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