Washington and Tel Aviv must confront the reality
that this war cannot be won militarily, even
stretching to the limit and beyond the constraints
imposed by international humanitarian law. The only
way out is diplomatic and political. It begins with
an immediate cessation of hostilities, followed by a
prisoner exchange and, under appropriate conditions,
the dispatch of an international force to South
Lebanon. Given Lebanon's history and its fragile
political-sectarian balance, any such force must be
contemplated with extreme caution. It has to be
agreed to by all parties—Hezbollah
included—authorized by the U.N. Security Council,
and be a confidence builder, not an enforcer.
Understandable as the desire of Israel and the
United States may be to have a force with full
disarmament powers, if it is viewed as threatening
Hezbollah or taking sides in the confessional
battles it could plunge the country into a new round
of civil strife.
But, the United States says, stopping violence is
not enough unless we deal with what the
administration calls "root causes." Indeed. Yet it
posits a dubious zero-sum choice: Either we tend to
those causes now, while violence flares, or we never
will. Surely there is no reason why the
administration, applying its considerable power,
could not mobilize international energy to address
these underlying problems once a cease-fire has been
secured—no reason, of course, other than that it has
shown no such appetite for diplomacy in the six
years preceding the crisis. Just as there was no
reason to wait for violence to break out before
tackling root causes, there is no reason to wait for
root causes to be tackled before ending violence.
Then there is the question of identifying these
root causes. The administration singles out
Hezbollah's existence as an autonomous armed militia
and concludes that to knock it out is the answer.
Hezbollah's capability is a part of the problem, and
not a negligible one at that. But a root cause?
The root cause? Can this really be the U.S.
view of the crisis engulfing the region?
To find root causes one has to dig deeper. There
are reasons why Hezbollah has risen and prospered
and why it has been so difficult to disarm. These
relate to the disadvantaged status of Lebanon's
large Shiite constituency and to the fact that many
among them view the Islamist movement as their
principal asset in an otherwise inequitable
political system. To aggressively go after Hezbollah
without simultaneously addressing Shiite grievances
could push the fragile nation to the breaking point.
Hezbollah's clout also can be attributed to
still-unresolved Israeli-Lebanese matters, including
the contested
Shebaa Farms, which the Islamist movement
readily invokes as justification for retaining its
arms. And Hezbollah's fate is closely intertwined
with regional issues, including
Syria and Iran's role, and the failure to
activate a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace.
A serious effort to safeguard Israel's security
without jeopardizing regional or Lebanese stability
is possible, but only if the United States is
prepared to engage in vigorous, continuous, and
comprehensive diplomacy. Immediately after a
cease-fire has been secured, the United States and
its European and Arab partners should focus on
ending the conditions that produced this deadly
conflagration—the real root causes. This would
include intensifying the intra-Lebanese dialogue
concerning Hezbollah, as well as the country's
political system and national defense; addressing
pending Israeli-Lebanese issues; engaging Syria and
Iran in a broad discussion of regional matters; and
reinvigorating the long-dormant Arab-Israeli peace
process.
Deal with root causes? By all means, as many of
us have been arguing for years. But the right ones,
and all of them, and in a way that doesn't postpone
the most urgent priority of all—stopping the present
killing
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