Four American allies in deep trouble

George Bush’s campaign for “democracy and freedom” is selective as he ignores abuses in countries where he needs help to wage his ill-conceived and unjustified “war on terror”

By Patrick Seale

09/05/06 "Daily Ireland" -- -- In Islamabad, Kabul, Baghdad and Jerusalem, four heads of government are facing grave, possibly terminal, difficulties -- largely because of their alliance with the United States.

In Iraq, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is riding a tiger of separatism and sectarian conflict which the latest Pentagon report at last recognises as a civil war. The country has fallen apart in an orgy of slaughter.

Killings between Sunnis and Shiites are now more numerous and more lethal than attacks on Coalition forces, while Iraqi Kurdistan has cut loose and is closer than ever to de facto independence. The Iraqi flag, which used to fly next to the Kurdish flag on public buildings, has been taken down by official decree.

Washington had hoped to create a democratic, pro-American (and pro-Israeli) federal state out of the ruins of Saddam Hussein's unitary autocracy. Instead, it has destroyed a major Arab country and introduced a virus of violent instability which threatens to infect the whole region.
The United States itself faces the likelihood of a strategic disaster, both political and military, not unlike its defeat in Vietnam a generation ago.
In Israel, a rising tide of criticism is threatening to drive Prime Minister Ehud Olmert from office, and bring down his ruling coalition. His criminally destructive war against Hezbollah in Lebanon -- planned and waged in conjunction with the United States -- has plunged the Jewish state into political turmoil and into agonies of self-doubt.

The major pillars of Israel's foreign and defence policy have been shaken, together with the myth of the IDF's invincibility. Although Lebanon has been smashed and will take years to recover, the main beneficiaries of the war are Iran, Syria and the undefeated Hezbollah resistance movement.

In both Washington and Jerusalem questions are being asked about who dragged whom into war. Some brave Americans are even beginning to question the influence of the Jewish Lobby on American policy.

In Kabul, President Hamid Karzai - put in power and propped up by the United States and the West -- is rapidly losing public support. There is already speculation that his four-and a half year rule may be coming to an end. Widely accused of corruption, his government has not provided security, economic revival or effective administration. Even Kabul is no longer safe.

The Taliban have rebuilt their political and military strength, particularly in the southern provinces of Kandahar, Uruzgan and Helmand. To the surprise of Nato and US forces, they have managed to deploy battalions of up to 400 heavily-armed men, despite the overwhelming reach of US air power.

More than 1,000 people have been killed in the fighting this year, with the pace of battle quickening this summer. The year has also seen nearly 60 suicide bombings, when last year there were none.

This August and September, the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), commanded by a British General, David Richards, is taking over the volatile southern and eastern sectors of Afghanistan from the US forces, but daily battles rage across these provinces, where criminals, warlords, drug traffickers and tribal chiefs often unite against Karzai and his Western backers.

General Richards' policy is to try to extend government control by means of economic and social development rather than by war-fighting. He has 23 military-run reconstruction teams at work in the provinces, but the Taliban will not give him the chance to succeed. To add to British woes, the Taliban claim to have shot down a helicopter in Kandahar province, killing 14 British soldiers.

In both London and Washington, some officials believe the war has already been lost. Meanwhile, Afghanistan's $3 billion a year narcotics trade continues to flourish, supplying 90 per cent of Europe's heroin.

In Pakistan, President Pervez Musharraf is being hounded by critics on all sides - by Islamic opponents at home, by exiled politicians such as the former premier Benazir Bhutto, and by British security officials who see a link between Pakistan and the British-born youths of Pakistani origin who have carried out attacks in London and, in the most recent incident, are accused of attempting to blow up airplanes flying between Heathrow and the United States.

US President George W Bush continues to see Pakistan as an essential front-line state against terrorism. He has chosen to ignore President Musharraf's lack of democracy and to forgive Pakistan's clandestine sales of bomb-making technology because he needs the help of the Pakistan army in securing the Afghan border. More than 70,000 Pakistani troops have been sent to fight Islamic militants in the tribal regions of Waziristan, but the region is far from pacified.

Another view is that Pakistan is the main source of global jihad as well as of nuclear proliferation (through the former AK Khan network). Some observers believe that, far from fighting the guerrillas, the Pakistan army and intelligence services may be soft on jihad.
Meanwhile, Baluchistan province is in crisis following the killing by the Pakistan army late last month of the Baluch tribal chief Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti.

Baluchistan is a strategic province bordering Iran, Afghanistan and the Arabian Gulf. It provides 45 per cent of Pakistan's gas supplies. The killing is bound to fuel the desire for Baluch autonomy.

Like his opposite numbers in Kabul, Baghdad and Jerusalem, Musharraf's military rule in Islamabad seems far from secure.
Patrick Seale is a leading British writer on the Middle East, and the author of The Struggle for Syria; also, Asad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East; and Abu Nidal: A Gun for Hire.

Copyright © 2006 Patrick Seale/Agence Global