BLITZER: How likely is the U.S. strike against
Iran? And would it lead to all-out war? Joining
us now is retired U.S. Air Force colonel Sam
Gardiner. He has taught strategy and military
operations at the National War College, the Air
War College, and the Naval War College. Colonel
thanks very much for coming in. He just prepared
a paper for the Century Foundation entitled
“Considering the U.S. Military Option For Iran.”
You speak to a lot of people plugged in. What is
your bottom line? How close in your opinion is
the Bush Administration to giving that go ahead.
GARDINER: It’s been given. In fact, we’ve
probably been executing military operations
inside Iran for at least 18 months. The evidence
is overwhelming
BLITZER: Wait. Wait. Let me press you.
GARDINER: Sure.
BLITZER: When you say it’s been given. The
president says he wants diplomacy to work to
convince the Iranian government to stop
enriching uranium, not go forward. “I would tell
the Iranian people that we have no desire for
conflict.” He told David Ignatius of the
Washington Post the other day. So what does that
mean, the order has been given?
GARDINER: We are conducting military
operations inside Iran right now. The evidence
is overwhelming. From both the Iranians,
Americans, and from congressional sources.
BLITZER: What is “military operation?” Define
that.
GARDINER: Sure. They probably have had two
objectives going back 18 months. The first was
to gather intelligence. Where is the Iranian
nuclear program? The second has been to prepare
dissident groups for phase two which will be the
strike, which will come as the next phase, I
think.
BLITZER: Preparing intelligence, that’s
understandable using all sorts of means. They
want to know what the Iranians are up to in
terms of their nuclear program. But are you
suggesting that U.S. military forces, special
operations forces, or others are on the ground
right now in Iran.
GARDINER: Yes, sir. Certainly. Absolutely
clear the evidence is overwhelming from lots of
sources, and, again, most of them you can read
in the public. Seymore Hersch has done good work
on it. There are lots of other people who have
done that. I have talked to Iranians. I asked an
Iranian ambassador to the IAEA, what’s this I
hear about Americans being there? He said to me,
well, we’ve captured some people who worked with
them. We’ve confirmed that they’re there.
BLITZER: Yeah, but, you know, these guys —
the Iranians, you can’t necessarily believe what
they’re saying. They could arrest some
dissidents in Iran and say these are American
spies. They do that all the time.
GARDINER: Sure. Sure. The House Committee on
Emerging Threats tried to have a hearing some
weeks ago in which they asked the Department of
State and Defense to come and answer this
question because it’s serious enough to be
answered without congressional approval, and
they didn’t come to the hearing. There are
sources that I have talked to on the Hill who
believe that that’s true and that it’s being
done without congressional oversight.
BLITZER: Look, I was once a Pentagon
correspondent many years ago, and in those days
and in these days, as Jamie McIntire just
reported, and as you well know from your time in
active duty in the Pentagon, in the U.S.
military, these guys are planning contingency
operations for almost everything. If Canada goes
to war against the United States, they have a
contingency plan.
GARDINER: Okay, two differences. Number one,
we have learned from TIME Magazine today that
some U.S. naval forces had been alerted for
deployment. That is a major step. That’s first.
Second thing is the sources suggest the plan
that’s not in the Pentagon. The plan has gone to
the White House. That’s not normal planning.
When the plan goes to the White House, that
means we’ve gone to a different state.
BLITZER: You think it’s possible there is a
little psychological warfare being played on
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to rattle him. To spread
the word. To put out this kind of information.
To get him nervous, perhaps a little bit more
agreeable to the diplomatic option.
GARDINER: It’s possible. It’s also possible
that this path was selected a long time ago. You
recall that even before Gulf II that a time when
the president said we have no plan. I have no
plan on my desk. In the summer of 2002 we began
bombing Iraq. Operation Southern Focus, without
congressional approval, without the U.N.
sanctions, we went ahead and began bombing.
BLITZER: The argument at that time is if
there were violations of the no-fly zone, U.S.
war planes were flying in the north and the
south and there were rockets or anti-aircraft
fire going up, they could take those out.
GARDINER: Yes, but it was a campaign to begin
the war before the war began. You know, I would
suggest the evidence is there.
BLITZER: You see a similar pattern right now.
GARDINER: Exactly.
BLITZER: We’re going to follow this closely.
Colonel Sam Gardener, thank you very much. We
look forward to reading your report that the
Century Foundation is putting out as well.
