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Iraq is on the verge of
collapse - report
By Ibon Villelabeitia
BAGHDAD, May 17 (Reuters)
- Iraq's government has lost control of vast areas to
powerful local factions and the country is on the verge of
collapse and fragmentation, a leading British think-tank said on
Thursday.
Chatham House also said there was not one civil war in Iraq, but
"several civil wars" between rival communities, and accused
Iraq's main neighbours -- Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey -- of
having reasons "for seeing the instability there continue".
"It can be argued that Iraq is on the verge of being a failed
state which faces the distinct possibility of collapse and
fragmentation," it said in a report.
"The Iraqi government is not able to exert authority evenly or
effectively over the country. Across huge swathes of territory,
it is largely irrelevant in terms of ordering social, economic
and political life."
The report also said that a U.S.-backed security crackdown in
Baghdad launched in February has failed to reduce overall
violence across the country, as insurgent groups have just
shifted their activities outside the capital.
While cautioning that Iraq might not ultimately exist as a
united entity, the 12-page report said a draft law to distribute
Iraq's oil wealth equitably among Sunni Arabs, Shi'ites and
ethnic Kurds was "the key to ensuring Iraq's survival".
"It will be oil revenue that keeps the state together rather
than any attempt to build a coherent national project in the
short term," the influential think-tank said.
The oil law, among benchmarks Washington has set Baghdad as
critical steps to end sectarian violence, has yet to be approved
by parliament. Ethnic Kurds, whose autonomous Kurdistan region
holds large unproven reserves, oppose the draft's wording.
Rather that one civil war pitting majority Shi'ites against
Sunnis nationwide, the paper said Iraq's "cross-cutting
conflicts" were driven by power struggles between sectarian,
ethnic and tribal groups with differing regional, political and
ideological goals as they compete for the country's resources.
The author of the report, Middle East expert Gareth Stansfield,
said instability in Iraq was "not necessarily contrary to the
interests" of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
"(Iraq) is now a theatre in which Iran can 'fight' the U.S.
without doing so openly," Stansfield said, adding that Iran was
the "most capable foreign power" in Iraq in terms of influencing
future events, more so than the United States.
The rise to power of Iraq's long-oppressed Shi'ite majority has
caused concern in Sunni Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia,
which deeply distrusts non-Arab, Shi'ite Iran's influence in
Iraq, Stansfield wrote.
Should a U.S. withdrawal herald the beginning of a full-scale
Sunni-Shi'ite civil war in Iraq, Saudi Arabia "might not stand
by", the paper said, "with the possibility of Iran and Saudi
Arabia fighting each other through proxies in Iraq".
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