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Cheney pushes
Bush to act on Iran
· Military solution back in favour as Rice loses out
· President 'not prepared to leave conflict unresolved'
By Ewen MacAskill in Washington and Julian Borger
07/16/07 " -- "The Guardian" --- - The balance in the
internal White House debate over Iran has shifted back in
favour of military action before President George Bush
leaves office in 18 months, the Guardian has learned.
The shift follows an internal review involving the White
House, the Pentagon and the state department over the last
month. Although the Bush administration is in deep trouble
over Iraq, it remains focused on Iran. A well-placed source
in Washington said: "Bush is not going to leave office with
Iran still in limbo."
The White House claims that Iran, whose influence in the
Middle East has increased significantly over the last six
years, is intent on building a nuclear weapon and is arming
insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The vice-president, Dick Cheney, has long favoured upping
the threat of military action against Iran. He is being
resisted by the secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, and
the defence secretary, Robert Gates.
Last year Mr Bush came down in favour of Ms Rice, who along
with Britain, France and Germany has been putting a
diplomatic squeeze on Iran. But at a meeting of the White
House, Pentagon and state department last month, Mr Cheney
expressed frustration at the lack of progress and Mr Bush
sided with him. "The balance has tilted. There is cause for
concern," the source said this week.
Nick Burns, the undersecretary of state responsible for Iran
and a career diplomat who is one of the main advocates of
negotiation, told the meeting it was likely that diplomatic
manoeuvring would still be continuing in January 2009. That
assessment went down badly with Mr Cheney and Mr Bush.
"Cheney has limited capital left, but if he wanted to use
all his capital on this one issue, he could still have an
impact," said Patrick Cronin, the director of studies at the
International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The Washington source said Mr Bush and Mr Cheney did not
trust any potential successors in the White House,
Republican or Democratic, to deal with Iran decisively. They
are also reluctant for Israel to carry out any strikes
because the US would get the blame in the region anyway.
"The red line is not in Iran. The red line is in Israel. If
Israel is adamant it will attack, the US will have to take
decisive action," Mr Cronin said. "The choices are: tell
Israel no, let Israel do the job, or do the job yourself."
Almost half of the US's 277 warships are stationed close to
Iran, including two aircraft carrier groups. The aircraft
carrier USS Enterprise left Virginia last week for the Gulf.
A Pentagon spokesman said it was to replace the USS Nimitz
and there would be no overlap that would mean three carriers
in Gulf at the same time.
No decision on military action is expected until next year.
In the meantime, the state department will continue to
pursue the diplomatic route.
Sporadic talks are under way between the EU foreign policy
chief, Javier Solana, and Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali
Larijani, on the possibility of a freeze in Iran's uranium
enrichment programme. Tehran has so far refused to
contemplate a freeze, but has provisionally agreed to
another round of talks at the end of the month.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed
ElBaradei, has said that there are signs of Iran slowing
down work on the enrichment plant it is building in Natanz.
Negotiations took place in Tehran last week between Iranian
officials and the IAEA, which is seeking a full accounting
of Iran's nuclear activities before Tehran disclosed its
enrichment programme in 2003. The agency's deputy director
general, Olli Heinonen, said two days of talks had produced
"good results" and would continue.
At the UN, the US, Britain and France are trying to secure
agreement from other security council members for a new
round of sanctions against Iran. The US is pushing for
economic sanctions that would include a freeze on the
international dealings of another Iranian bank and a
mega-engineering firm owned by the Iranian Revolutionary
Guard. Russia and China are resisting tougher measures.
© Guardian News and Media Limited 2007
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