That quest
for dominance over all other states in
the Middle East can be traced back to
the
1992 Draft Defense Planning Guidance,
drafted by Paul Wolfowitz's staff at the
Pentagon -- Zalmay Khalilzad and Scooter
Libby. It said, "[We] must maintain the
mechanisms for deterring potential
competitors from even aspiring to a
larger regional or global role".
For the
neoconservatives and their allies, that
has meant that Iran could not be allowed
to emerge as a power center in the
Middle East. Of course the Bush
administration has had cover their
designs in a fog of propaganda
portraying Iran as the worst thing to
come along since Hitler. But at least
one insider in neoconservative circles
has been honest enough to reveal the
real problem the hawks in the
administration have with Iran.
Tom
Donnelly was the main author of the
neoconservative September 2000 blueprint
for military policy in the Bush
administration, "Rebuilding
America's Defenses" which involved
four prominent figures on the
neoconservative right who would take
prominent positions in the
administration: Libby, Wolfowitz,
Stephen A. Cambone, and John Bolton.
In a
chapter in the book "Getting Ready for a
Nuclear-Ready Iran", published in 2005,
Donnelly admitted that, contrary to the
official U.S. line depicting Iran as a
radical state threatening to plunge the
region into war, Iran was "more the
status quo power" in the region in
relation to the Bush administration's
"project of regional transformation".
The problem with Iran, he explained, is
that it "stands directly athwart this
project of regional transformation".
The Bush
project for bringing the magic of
advanced capitalist democracy to the
benighted Arab states of the Middle East
has proven to be a neoconservative pipe
dream in Iraq, Lebanon and in the
Palestinian territories. But forget the
"spreading democracy" ploy and think of
that "regional transformation" as simply
another layer of justification for
exerting military pressure and, if
necessary, war on states that refuse to
fall in line. Donnelly cut through the
façade of official propaganda to write
that the prospect of a "nuclear Iran"
was unacceptable to the Bush
administration mainly because of "the
constraining effect it threatens to
impose upon U.S. strategy for the
greater Middle East".
In other
words, Iran could not be allowed to have
even the option of a nuclear weapon
capability, because the United States
had to be able to operate with a
completely free hand militarily in the
region. What Donnelly did not say, but
which follows from that posture, is that
even a non-nuclear Iran that has links
to strong allies such as Hezbollah and
Hamas, could not be allowed to be a
regional power.
What
Donnelly -- and presumably his friends
in the Bush administration -- regarded
as the "greatest danger" in regard to
Iran was that the "realists" in the
administration would "pursue a 'balance
of power' approach with a nuclear Iran,
undercutting the Bush 'liberation
strategy'".
With
this valuable key to the real thinking
of the Bush administration's most
influential figures -- most, but not all
of which have now departed -- we can
understand a series of policy decisions
on Iran that otherwise make no sense.
First,
there was the administration's dismissal
of the
proposal from the Iranian leadership
in early May 2003, to negotiate with the
United States on the very issues which
the administration had claimed were the
basis for its hostile posture toward
Tehran: its nuclear program, its support
for Hizbollah and other anti-Israeli
armed groups and its hostility to a
peace settlement with Israel.
Instead,
the Pentagon was pushing for the
adoption of an official policy of regime
change in Iran. Although the
administration never explicitly said
that it has pursued that policy, it
openly wielded the threat of regime
change as part of its pressure on Iran.
Rice, on a trip to the Middle East in
May 2005,
warned Iranian leaders that were not
immune to the "major changes doing on in
the region" -- a code phrase for the
U.S. pursuit of the "regional
transformation" to which Donnelly
referred.
Finally,
the Bush administration refused to
tolerate any real negotiations by the
Europeans with Iran over its uranium
enrichment program in 2004-2005, even
though those negotiations could have
resulted in an agreement that would
limited Iran to a level of uranium
enrichment that would have only a small
fraction of what is required for the
production of a nuclear weapon. In March
2005,
Iran proposed to its European
negotiating partners to submit to a
system of their devising to guarantee
against enrichment that could support a
nuclear weapons through an inspection
system. But under U.S. pressure the
Europeans refused even to discuss it.
The
administration's argument against such
an agreement was that there was a secret
enrichment program paralleling the
acknowledge program that would fall
under international inspection. But as
Sy Hersh
reported last November , after years
of trying, the CIA still had found "no
conclusive evidence" a such a secret
Iranian nuclear-weapons program running
parallel to the one being monitored by
the International Atomic Energy Agency.
In fact the still classified National
Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear
program in mid-2005 concluded that
no final Iranian decision had been
made to pursue the manufacture of a
nuclear weapon.
We know
that the policy of attacking Iran is
being pushed by a handful of men with
extreme views, and that it has been
opposed by many in the State Department,
the intelligence community and the
military leadership. But the "moderates"
in the administration, as well as the
leading Democratic candidates and
virtually everyone in the Democratic
Party leadership -- have been supporting
the threat of war against Iran for
years, in large part because they share
the illusions of power that go with
being the militarily dominant state in
the world. The chief illusion is that
one can and should use U.S. power to
coerce an uncooperative state.
The
entire spectrum of political leadership
in this country now appears to accept
that idea, which is an indication of
just how far U.S. military dominance has
tilted the policy debate in this
country.
The
implication of the general acceptance of
the threat of war against Iran as
instrument of policy is that neither the
"moderates" inside the administration
nor the Democrats will be in a position
to offer effective resistance to actual
war against Iran before it is too late.
Unless someone begins to push back soon,
the distorted logic of dominance may
carry this nation into an irrational and
criminal war whose consequences for us
and for the world would be the gravest
imaginable.