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Housing Flameout: California falls into the sea
By Mike Whitney
10/20/07 "ICH
" -- -- Is it
really fair to blame one man for destroying the US economy?
Probably not. But Alan Greenspan is still tops on our list.
After all, Greenspan “presided over the greatest expansion of
speculative finance in history, including a trillion-dollar
hedge fund industry, bloated Wall Street-firm balance sheets
approaching $2 trillion, and a global derivatives market with
notional values surpassing an unfathomable $220 trillion.”
(Henry Liu, “Why the Subprime Bust will Spread” Asia Times)
Greenspan’s also responsible for slashing the real Fed Funds
Rate so that it was negative for 31 months from 2002 to 2005.
That decision flooded the housing market with trillions of
dollars in low interest credit creating the largest equity
bubble in history. Now that that bubble is crashing; Greenspan
has hit the road. He now spends his time leap-frogging from city
to city hawking his revisionist memoirs of how he steered the
ship of state through troubled waters while fending off
protectionist liberals. Look for it in the Fiction section of
your local bookstore.
Still, can we really blame “Maestro” for what appears to have
been a spontaneous flurry of “free market” speculation in real
estate?
To a large extent, yes. Apart from Greenspan’s tacit endorsement
of all the dubious loans (subprime, ARMs etc) which flourished
during his reign; and despite his brusque rejection of the Fed’s
role as regulator; the Federal Reserve’s own documents (“House
Prices and Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Study”) indicate
that housing was “specifically targeted” acknowledging that it
would serve as “a key channel of monetary policy transmission”.
This is not even particularly controversial any more. In fact,
we can see that this same scam has been used in England, Spain
and Ireland---all now suffering the effects of massive real
estate inflation. Low interest rates continue to be the most
efficient way of stealthily shifting wealth from one class to
another while decimating the foundations of a healthy economy.
Bankers fully understand the effects of cheap credit on the
economy. It is branded on their DNA.
CALIFORNIA HOUSING FALLS OFF A CLIFF
We are now beginning to see the first signs that the listless
housing bubble has sprung a leak and is careening towards earth.
This week’s news from Southern California confirms that home
sales have plummeted a whopping 48.5% from the previous year.
This represents the biggest decline in home sales since the
industry began keeping records more than 20 years ago. Sales are
at a standstill and builders and homeowners have begun slashing
prices in desperation. (See you tube “Central California Housing
Crash:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVFBojFJTZM )
The news is only slightly better in the Bay Area where DataQuick
reports that “Bay Area home sales plummet amid mortgage woes”:
“Bay Area home sales sank to their lowest level in more than two
decades in September, the result of a continuing market slowdown
and borrowers' increased difficulties in obtaining "jumbo"
mortgages…
A total of 5,014 new and resale houses and condos were sold in
the nine-county Bay Area in September. That was down 31.3
percent from 7,299 in August, and down 40.1 percent from 8,374
for September a year ago.”
40.1% year over year. That is the definition of a market
collapse.
“Foreclosure activity is at record levels.”
September sales figures for the rest of the country are not yet
available, but what is taking place in California, is what we
anticipated after the stock market “froze over” on August 16th.
Most people don’t understand that the market nearly crashed on
that day and that the tremors from that cataclysm changed the
way the banks do business. Many of the loans which were
available just months ago (subprime, piggyback, ARMs, “no doc”,
Alt-A, reverse amortization etc) are either much harder to get
or have been discontinued altogether. Additionally, the banks
are no longer able to bundle loans into securities and sell them
to investors. In fact, the future of “securitization” of
mortgage-debt is very much in doubt now. An article in the
Financial Times shows how this process has slowed to a trickle:
“Only $9.9 billion of home equity loan securitizations have come
to market since July 1---A 95% DECLINE FROM THE $200.9 BILLION
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR AND A ROUGHLY 92% DECREASE FROM
THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR.”
Also---and perhaps most importantly---many potential buyers are
now finding that they no longer meet the stricter standards the
banks are using to determine credit worthiness. This is
especially true for jumbo loans, that is, any home loan that
exceeds $417,000. The banks are getting increasing skeptical
(some believe they are hoarding capital to cover bad bets on
mortgage-backed derivatives) in determining who is a qualified
mortgage applicant. Understandably, this has thrown a wrench in
sales figures and slashed the number of September closings in
half.
In other words, the credit meltdown on Aug 16 changed the basic
dynamics of home mortgage-lending. Decreasing demand and
mushrooming inventory are only part of a much larger problem;
the financing mechanism has completely changed. The banks don’t
want to lend money. And, when banks don’t lend money---bad
things happen. The economy goes into freefall. Despite the
valiant efforts of the Plunge Protection Team in engineering a
late-day turnaround to the August rout; the damage is done.
Tighter lending will put additional downward pressure on a
housing market that is already in distress speeding up an
unavoidable recession. The economic storm clouds are already
visible on the horizon.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has finally admitted that the
slumping housing market is now the “most significant risk to the
economy”. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke agrees and adds that he
believes that housing would be a “significant drag” on GDP. The
troubles at the banks and the news from California have put the
“fear of God” in both men. But there’s little they can do.
Millions of people are “in over their heads” living in homes
they clearly can’t afford. They’ll be forced to move in the next
year or so. Foreclosures will soar. That can’t be avoided. Also,
the industry has a 10 month backlog of existing homes that must
be reduced before new sales have any chance of rebounding. That
takes time. Construction and construction-related industries
will suffer substantial losses.
The problems facing the banks are much more serious than anyone
cares to openly discuss. The banking system is over-extended and
under-capitalized. The Fed has provided more than $400 billion
in repos since the August meltdown, and yet, the troubles
persist. The Treasury Dept has joined with Citigroup, Bank of
America and JP Morgan Chase in an attempt to repackage bad debts
and sell them to wary investors via “Super conduit” mega fund.
The desperation is palpable and these latest shenanigans are
only adding to rising stock market jitters.
There’s a myth that the Fed chief can wave a magic wand and make
things better. But that is not the case. Bernanke’s decision to
cut to the Fed’s Fund Rate last month did not affect long term
rates and, therefore, did not make it cheaper to buy (or
refinance) a home. The rate-cut was really just a gift to the
banks that are currently buried under $500 billion in
mortgage-backed debt and CDO sludge. The increase in liquidity
hasn’t made these toxic securities any more sellable or solvent.
Nor has it increased the banks willingness to provide new home
financing to mortgage applicants. That process has slowed to a
crawl. All the Fed’s repos have done is buy more time for the
banks while they try to wriggle out of reporting their true
losses.
The banks serve as a key conduit for the transferal of credit to
consumers. That conduit has turned into a chokepoint due to
defaults in the mortgage industry and the banks own humongous
debt-load. The Fed cannot get money to the people who need it
and who can keep the economy (which is 70% dependent on consumer
spending) growing. This is a structural problem and it cannot be
resolved by merely cutting rates.
We’ve already begun to see signs of a slowdown in consumer
spending at Target, Lowes and Walmart. If that deceleration
continues, the economy will slip quickly into recession.
American consumers have withdrawn over $9 trillion from their
home equity in the last 7 years. That spending-spree has kept
the economy whirring along at a healthy clip. Now that housing
prices have stabilized—and in many cases, gone down---that easy
money is no longer available setting the stage for shrinking
economic growth, slower home sales, and declining demand.
Deflation is the Fed’s worst nightmare and will be fought with
every weapon in their arsenal.
Regrettably, Bernanke does not have the tools to fix this
problem and he is likely to destroy the currency if he keeps
cutting rates. The recent cuts have already sent oil and gold to
new highs while the dollar continues to nosedive. (The euro
stands at $1.42 per dollar—up 63% since Bush took office) The
weak dollar and the persistent credit problems in the markets,
has sent foreign investors scampering for the exits. August was
the biggest month on record for the withdrawal of foreign
capital from US securities and Treasuries---$163 billion in
capital flight. (Japan and China led the way) Confidence in US
markets, leadership and integrity has never been lower.
Investors are voting with their feet. They’ve had enough.
With capital fleeing the country at the present pace, the US
will not be able to maintain its $800 current account deficit,
which means that prices will rise, the dollar will fall, and
consumer spending will dry up. No amount of financial tinkering
at the Federal Reserve will make a damn bit of difference.
Barring a dramatic change in economic policy—which seems
unlikely---we appear to be quick-stepping towards a system-wide
market-busting break-down.
THE MESS THAT GREENSPAN MADE
The ruinous effects of Greenspan’s housing bubble can’t be fully
appreciated unless one spends a bit of time studying some of the
charts and graphs that are now available. These graphs are the
best way to dispel any lingering suspicion that the housing
bubble may be some a left-wing conspiracy theory. It’s not, and
these links should provide ample evidence to the contrary.
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/statistics-2007/2007/3/15/arm-reset-schedule.html
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2007/9/7/amortization_1.jpg
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2007/9/7/amortization_2.jpg
The first graph is the ARM (adjustable rate mortgages) reset
schedule---totaling hundreds of billions of dollars in the next
2 years. The next 2 are the interest only and negative
amortization share of total purchase mortgage originations
2000-2006. Keep in mind, when studying the ARM reset graph that
“A study commissioned by the AFL-CIO shows that nearly half of
homeowners with ARMs don't know how their loans will adjust, and
three-quarters don't know how much their payments will increase
if the loan does reset. 73% of homeowners with ARM's don't even
know how much their monthly payment will increase the next time
the rate goes up.” (Calculated Risk)
The unwinding of the housing bubble is now beginning to show up
in other areas of the economy. Credit card debt has skyrocketed
to 17% annually now that homeowners are no longer able to tap
into their vanishing home equity. Americans already owe over
$500 billion on their credit cards. Now that debt is increasing
faster than retail sales, which suggests that many people are so
over-extended they are using their cards for basic necessities
and medical expenses. Industry analysts now expect an
unprecedented wave of credit card defaults in the next 6 to 12
months. Unfortunately, for the tapped-out consumer, the credit
card represents his last access to an unsecured loan.
We can also expect the downturn in housing to swell the
unemployment lines. Oddly enough, while home sales have declined
40% from their peak in 2005, construction-related employment has
only slipped 5%.That is really astonishing. It could be that the
BLS is fabricating the numbers using its Birth-Death model.
(which magically produces millions of fictitious jobs) But we
know that construction has accounted for 2 out of every 5 new
jobs in the US for the last 6 years, so we are sure to see a
significant rise in unemployment as the bubble deflates. The
financial and mortgage industries have already experienced
significant layoffs.
Similarly, we can expect to see substantial correction in home
prices. Housing prices typically lag 6 months after sales peak
and inventory rises. So far, prices have dropped a mere 3.5%,
whereas inventory is at historic highs and sales have decreased
40%. It is impossible to know how low prices will go (some
experts like Robert Schiller predict 50% cuts in the hotter
markets) but the downward pressure on housing prices is bound to
be enormous. Growing unemployment, o% personal savings, rising
foreclosures, the weakening dollar, and the prevailing mood of
gloominess (a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans
believe we are ALREADY in a recession!) suggest that the
impending fall in home prices will be precipitous.
DEFLATIONARY DOWNWARD SPIRAL
There is a debate raging on the econo-blogs about whether the
country is headed towards hyperinflation or a deflationary
cycle. The argument for hyperinflation is compelling since the
Fed has already shown that it is prepared to savage the dollar
in order to keep the economy running. As a result, we’ve seen
inflation is heating up at a pace not seen in over a
decade.(despite the government’s mendacious figures) In
September gasoline costs rose 4%, heating oil soared 9%, food
jumped 5%, and dairy products lurched ahead 7.5%. Everything is
up except the greenback which appears to be in its death throes.
Still, there are signs that America’s debt-fueled consumer
economy is on its last legs as shoppers and homeowners are
increasingly forced to accept that they have maxed-out nearly
all of their available lines of credit. They will have to
curtail their spending and live within their means. That means
less growth, a continuing decline in housing, and a sharp fall
in equities prices. These are all the harbingers of deflation.
Treasury Secretary Paulson’s new “Master Liquidity Enhancement
Conduit”, M-LEC---which allows the investment banks to delay
reporting their losses---is particularly ominous in this regard,
since it was the Japanese banks unwillingness to write-off their
bad debts which extended their deflationary recession for 15
years. Can the same thing happen here?
Probably. An interesting exchange took place last month between
the widely-respected economic blogger, Mike Shedlock (“Mish’s
Global Economic Trend Analysis”) and economist Paul L. Kasriel.
The interview provides details of the Japanese crisis which
offer some striking similarities to our present predicament. I
have transcribed an extended portion of that discussion:
Paul L. Kasriel: “Japan experienced a deflation in recent years
because the bursting of its asset-price bubble in the early
1990s created huge losses in its banking system. The Japanese
banks had financed the asset-price bubble. When it burst, the
debtors could not keep current on their loans to the banks and
therefore were forced to turn back the collateral to the banks.
The market value of the collateral, of course, was less than the
amount of the loans outstanding, thereby inflicting huge losses
of capital to the Japanese banks. With the decline in bank
capital, the Japanese banks could not extend new credit to the
private sector even though the Bank of Japan was offering credit
to the banks at very low nominal rates of interest.
Banks are an important transmission mechanism between the
central bank and the private economy. If the banks are unable or
unwilling to extend the cheap credit being offered to them by
the central bank, then the economy grows very slowly, if at all.
This happened in the U.S. during the early 1930s.
U.S. banks currently hold record amounts of mortgage-related
assets on their books. If the housing market were to go into a
deep recession resulting in massive mortgage defaults, the U.S.
banking system could sustain huge losses similar to what the
Japanese banks experienced in the 1990s. If this were to occur,
the Fed could cut interest rates to zero but it would have
little positive effect on economic activity or inflation.
Short of the Fed depositing newly-created money directly into
private sector accounts, I suspect that a deflation would occur
under these circumstances. Again, crippled banking systems tend
to bring on deflations. And crippled banking systems seem to
result from the bursting of asset bubbles because of the sharp
decline in the value of the collateral backing bank loans.”
Mish: What if Bernanke cuts interest rates to 1 percent?
Kasriel: In a sustained housing bust that causes banks to take a
big hit to their capital it simply will not matter. This is
essentially what happened recently in Japan and also in the US
during the great depression.
Mish: Can you elaborate?
Kasriel: Most people are not aware of actions the Fed took
during the Great Depression. Bernanke claims that the Fed did
not act strong enough during the Great Depression. This is
simply not true. The Fed slashed interest rates and injected
huge sums of base money but it did no good. More recently, Japan
did the same thing. It also did no good. If default rates get
high enough, banks will simply be unwilling to lend which will
severely limit money and credit creation.
Mish: How does inflation start and end?
Kasriel: Inflation starts with expansion of money and credit.
Inflation ends when the central bank is no longer able or
willing to extend credit and/or when consumers and businesses
are no longer willing to borrow because further expansion and
/or speculation no longer makes any economic sense.
Mish: So when does it all end?
Kasriel: That is extremely difficult to project. If the current
housing recession were to turn into a housing depression,
leading to massive mortgage defaults, it could end.
Alternatively, if there were a run on the dollar in the foreign
exchange market, price inflation could spike up and the Fed
would have no choice but to raise interest rates aggressively.
Given the record leverage in the U.S. economy, the rise in
interest rates would prompt large scale bankruptcies. These are
the two "checkmate" scenarios that come to mind.” (“Mish’s
Global Economic Trend Analysis”)
“Checkmate scenarios”. Well put. Thank you, Mish.
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