11/08/07 "ICH"
-- -- -The Bush administration has covered up and
ignored dissenting Pentagon war games analysis that
suggests an attack on Iran’s nuclear or military
facilities will lead directly to the annihilation of the
Navy’s Fifth Fleet now stationed in the Persian Gulf.
Lt. General Paul Van Riper led a hypothetical Persian
Gulf state in the 2002 Millennium Challenge wargames
that resulted in the destruction of the Fifth Fleet. His
experience and conclusions regarding the vulnerability
of the Fifth Fleet to an assymetrical military conflict
with Iran have been ignored. Neoconservatives within the
Bush administration are currently aggressively promoting
a range of military actions against Iran that will
culminate in it attacking the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet with
sophisticated cruise anti-ship missiles. They are
ignoring Van Riper’s experiences in the Millennium
Challenge and how it applies to the current nuclear
conflict with Iran.
Iran
has sufficient quantities of cruise missiles to destroy
much or all of the Fifth Fleet which is within range of
Iran’s mobile missile launchers strategically located
along its mountainous terrain overlooking the Persian
Gulf. The Bush administration is deliberately
downplaying the vulnerability of the Fifth Fleet to
Iran’s advanced missile technology which has been
purchased from Russia and China since the late 1990’s.
The most sophisticated of Iran’s cruise missiles are the
‘Sunburn’ and ‘Yakhonts’. These are missiles against
which U.S. military experts conclude modern warships
have no effective defense. By deliberately provoking an
Iranian retaliation to U.S. military actions, the
neoconservatives will knowingly sacrifice much or all of
the Fifth Fleet. This will culminate in a new Pearl
Harbor that will create the right political environment
for total war against Iran, and expanded military
actions in the Persian Gulf region.
The Fifth Fleet’s Vulnerability to Iran’s
Anti-Ship Missile Arsenal
The
U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet is headquartered in the Gulf State
of Bahrain which is responsible for patrolling the
Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Suez Canal and parts of the
Indian Ocean. The Fifth Fleet currently comprises a
carrier group and two helicopter carrier ships. Its size
peaked at five aircraft carrier groups and six
helicopter carriers in 2003 during the invasion of Iraq.
Presently, it is led by the USS Enterprise (CVN-65), the
first nuclear powered aircraft carrier commissioned in
1961. It is the oldest of the Navy’s nuclear powered
class carriers and scheduled to be decommissioned in
2015 when the first of the new Ford Class carriers
enters service. The Enterprise has over 5000 Navy
personnel, and on November 2, began participating in a
Naval exercise in the Persian Gulf.
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL02134242
.
The
Fifth Fleet is part of Central Command which is
responsible for military operations in the Middle East
and Central Asia, including the military campaigns in
Iraq and Afghanistan. Central Command is led by Admiral
William Fallon, the first naval officer to head Central
Command. His appointment reflected widespread opinion
that Naval forces would be central in the evolution of
missions and goals in the Persian Gulf region. Robert
Gates, the U.S. Secretary of Defense explained: “As you
look at the range of options available to the United
States, the use of naval and air power, potentially, it
made sense to me for all those reasons for Fallon to
have the job.”
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/05/15/1212/
It would be Central Command and the Fifth Fleet that
would be directly responsible for carrying out a new war
against Iran. As a result, it would be the Fifth Fleet
that would be most vulnerable of all U.S. military
assets to Iran’s arsenal of anti-ship cruise missiles.
The
Fifth Fleet’s base in Bahrain, is only 150 miles away
from the Iranian coast, and would itself be in range of
Iran’s new generation of anti-ship cruise missiles.
Also, any Naval ships in the confined terrain of the
Persian Gulf would have difficulty in maneuvering and
would be within range of Iran’s rugged coastline which
extends all along the Persian Gulf to the Arabian sea.
Iran
began purchasing advanced military technology from
Russia soon after the latter pulled out in 2000 from the
Gore-Chernomyrdin Protocol, which limited Russia’s sales
of military equipment to Iran.
http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/03-12-2005/9334-iran-0
. Russia subsequently began selling Iran military
technology that could be used in any military conflict
with the U.S. This included air defense systems and
anti-ship cruise missiles in which Russia specialized to
offset the U.S. large naval superiority. One researcher
of Russia’s missile technology explains its focus on
anti-ship technologies:
Many years ago, Soviet planners gave up trying to match
the US Navy ship for ship, gun for gun, and dollar for
dollar. The Soviets simply could not compete with the
high levels of US spending required to build up and
maintain a huge naval armada. They shrewdly adopted an
alternative approach based on strategic defense. They
searched for weaknesses, and sought relatively
inexpensive ways to exploit those weaknesses. The
Soviets succeeded: by developing several supersonic
anti-ship missiles, one of which, the SS-N-22 Sunburn,
has been called "the most lethal missile in the world
today."
http://www.rense.com/general59/theSunburniransawesome.htm
The
SS-N-22 or ‘Sunburn” has a speed of Mach 2.5 or 1500
miles an hour, uses stealth technology and has a range
up to 130 miles. It contains a conventional warhead of
750 lbs that can destroy most ships. Of even greater
concern is Russia’s SSN-X-26 or ‘Yakhonts’ cruise
missile which has a range of 185 miles which makes all
US Navy ships in the Persian Gulf vulnerable to attack.
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/ss-n-26.htm
.
More
importantly the Yakhonts has been specifically developed
for use against Carrier groups, and has been sold by
Russia on the international arms trade.
Both
the Yakhonts and the Sunburn missiles are designed to
defeat the Aegis radar defense currently used on U.S.
Navy ships by using stealth technology and low ground
hugging flying maneuvers. In their final approaches
these missiles take evasive maneuvers to defeat
anti-ship missile defenses. The best defense the Navy
has against Sunburn and Yakhonts cruise missiles has
been the Sea-RAM (Rolling Actionframe Missile system)
anti-ship missile defense system which is a modified
form of the Phalanx 20 mm cannon gun . The Sea-RAM has
been tested with a 95% success rate against the ‘Vandal’
supersonic missile capable of Mach 2.5 speeds but does
not have the radar evading and final flight maneuvers of
Russian anti-ship missiles.
http://www.navybuddies.com/launcher/ram.htm Naval
ships are having their anti-ship missile defense fitted
with the new Sea-RAM
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htada/articles/20060412.aspx.
However, the Sea-RAM has not yet been tested in actual
battle conditions nor against the Sunburn or Yakhonts
missiles which out-perform the Vandal. The Vandal is
currently scheduled for replacement by the ‘Coyote’
which replicates many of the evasive maneuvers of the
Russia anti-ship missiles necessary for developing an
effective defense.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/gqm-163.htm
.
So
great is the threat posed by the Sunburn, Yakhonts and
other advanced anti-ship missiles being developed by
Russia and sold to China, Iran and other countries, that
the Pentagon’s weapons testing office in 2007 moved to
halt production on further aircraft carriers until an
effective defense was developed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=a5LkaU0wj714&refer=home
. Iran has purchased sufficient quantities of both the
Sunbeam and Yakhonts to destroy much or all of the Fifth
Fleet anywhere in the Persian Gulf from its mountainous
coastal terrain.
Millennium Challenge Wargames and GAO Report
In
2000, the Government Accountability Office (formerly
General Accounting Office – GAO) conducted a study on
the US Navy’s preparedness for anti-ship cruise missiles
http://fas.org/man/gao/nsiad-00-149.htm .
Subtitled, Comprehensive Strategy Needed to Improve
Ship Cruise Missile Defense, the study pointed out
that the “threat to surface ships from sophisticated
anti-ship cruise missiles is increasing. Nearly 70
nations have deployed sea- and land-launched cruise
missiles, and 20 nations have air-launched cruise
missiles.” The study found that although “the Navy has
made some progress in improving surface ship
self-defense capabilities, most ships continue to have
only limited capabilities against cruise missile
threats.” A subsequent military study in 2003 found that
only 27 Naval ships were fitted with the Sea-RAM
anti-missile defense which had performed well in tests.
http://www.jfsc.ndu.edu/current_students/documents_policies/documents/jca_cca_awsp/Cruise_Missile_Defense_Final.doc
. The GAO study found that while “Navy leaders express
concern about the vulnerability of surface ships, that
concern may not be reflected in the budget [1997-2005]
for ship self-defense programs.” Most importantly, the
GAO study found that Navy assessments “overstates the
actual and projected capabilities of surface ships to
protect themselves from cruise missiles.” The GAO
study’s criticism of the Navy’s capacity to
satisfactorily deal with cruise missile threats was
vividly illustrated in the Millennium Challenge wargames
held in the summer of 2002.
The
“Millennium Challenge” was one of the largest wargames
ever conducted and wargames involved 13,500 troops
spread out at over 17 locations. The wargames involved
heavy usage of computer simulations, extended over a
three week period and cost $250 million.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
Millennium Challenge involved asymmetrical warfare
between the U.S military forces, led by General William
Kernan, and an unnamed state in the Persian Gulf.
According to General Kernan, the wargames “would test a
series of new war-fighting concepts recently developed
by the Pentagon.”
http://www.rense.com/general64/fore.htm . Using a
range of asymmetrical attack strategies using disguised
civilian boats for launching attacks, planes in Kamikaze
attacks, and Silkworm cruise missiles, much of the Fifth
Fleet was sunk. The games revealed how asymmetrical
strategies could exploit the Fifth Fleet’s vulnerability
against anti-ship cruise missiles in the confined waters
of the Persian Gulf.
In a
controversial decision, the Pentagon decided to simply
‘refloat’ the Fifth Fleet to continue the exercise which
led to the eventual defeat of the Persian Gulf state.
The sinking of the Fifth Fleet was ignored and the
wargames declared a success for the “new war-fighting
concepts” adopted by Gen. Kernan. This led to Lt General
Paul Van Riper, the commander of the mythical Gulf
State, calling the official results “empty
sloganeering”. In a later television interview, General
Riper elaborated further:
"There were accusations that Millennium Challenge was
rigged. I can tell you it was not. It started out as a
free-play exercise, in which both Red and Blue had the
opportunity to win the game. However, about the third or
fourth day, when the concepts that the command was
testing failed to live up to their expectations, the
command at that point began to script the exercise in
order to prove these concepts. This was my critical
complaint.”
http://www.rense.com/general64/fore.htm
Most
significant was General Riper’s claims of the
effectiveness of the older Cruise missile technology,
the Silkworm missile which were used to sink an aircraft
carrier and two helicopter-carriers loaded with marines
in the total of 16 ships sunk. When asked to confirm
Riper’s claims, General Kernar replied: “Well, I don’t
know. To be honest with you. I haven’t had an
opportunity to assess what happened. But that’s a
possibility… The specifics of the cruise-missile piece…
I really can’t answer that question. We’ll have to get
back to you”
http://www.rense.com/general64/fore.htm
The
Millennium Challenge wargames clearly demonstrated the
vulnerability of the US Fifth Fleet to Silkworm cruise
missile attacks. This replicated the experience of the
British during the 1980 Falklands war where two ships
were sunk by three Exocet missiles. Both the Exocet and
Silkworm cruise missiles were an older generation of
anti-ship missile technology that were far surpassed by
the Sunburn and Yakhonts missiles. If the Millennium
Challenge was a guide to an asymmetrical war with Iran,
much of the U.S Fifth Fleet would be destroyed. It is
not surprising Millennium Challenge was eventually
scripted so that this embarrassing fact was hidden. To
date, there has been little public awareness of the
vulnerability of the US Fifth Fleet while stationed in
the Persian Gulf. It appears that the Bush
administration had scripted an outcome to the wargames
that would promote its neoconservative agenda for the
Middle East.
The Neo-Conservative Strategy to Attack Iran
Neoconservatives share a political philosophy that US
dominance of the international system as the world’s
sole superpower needs to be extended indefinitely into
the 21st century. Part of the neoconservative
agenda is to identify and overthrow states that are
opposed to the current U.S. dominated international
system. After the 911 attacks, rogue states viewed as
supporters of international terrorism were elevated into
what President Bush called in his 2002 State of the
Union speech the “Axis of Evil” .
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/01/20020129-11.html
These originally included Iraq, Iran and North Korea.
Neoconservatives view forceful diplomacy backed by
military intervention as the price to pay for reigning
in rogue states that support terrorism. Up until the
2003 invasion, Iraq had been the principal rogue state
that was a targeted by neoconservatives. Subsequent to
the US overthrow of Saddam Hussein and forceful
multilateral diplomacy on North Korea, neo-conservative
attention has firmly shifted to Iran.
In
early 2006 neoconservatives within the Bush
administration began vigorously promoting a new war
against Iran due to the alleged threat posed by its
nuclear development program. Iran has consistently
maintained that its nuclear development is lawful and in
compliance with the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).
Article IV.1 of the NPT states: “Nothing in this Treaty
shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right
of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research,
production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful
purposes…”
http://www.un.org/events/npt2005/npttreaty.html .
The only constraint on this “inalienable right” is that
states must agree not to pursue a nuclear weapons
program as identified in Articles I and II of the NPT.
Since 2004, The Bush administration has been citing
intelligence data that Iran is secretly developing
nuclear weapons and must under no circumstances be
allowed to do this.
Much of
Iran’s nuclear development has occurred in underground
facilities built at a depth of 70 feet with hardened
concrete overhead that protect them from any known
conventional attack. This led to the Bush administration
arguing in early 2006 that tactical nuclear weapons
would need to be used to take out Iran’s nuclear
facilities.
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/04/17/060417fa_fact
This culminated in a fierce debate between leading
neo-conservatives such as Dick Cheney and Donald
Rumsfeld, with the Joint Chiefs of Staff which remained
adamantly opposed. Seymour Hersh in May 2006, reported
the opposition of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
In late April, the military leadership, headed by
General Pace, achieved a major victory when the White
House dropped its insistence that the plan for a bombing
campaign include the possible use of a nuclear device to
destroy Iran's uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz,
nearly two hundred miles south of Tehran. …. "Bush and
Cheney were dead serious about the nuclear planning,"
the former senior intelligence official told me. "And
Pace stood up to them. Then the world came back: 'O.K.,
the nuclear option is politically unacceptable.'
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/07/10/060710fa_fact
.
.
Subsequent efforts by the neo-conservatives to justify a
conventional military attack have been handicapped by
widespread public skepticism by the threat posed by
Iran’s nuclear program, and Iran’s compliance with the
Nonproliferation Treaty. The International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) has stated that Iran is complying with its
inspection requirements. In a statement on October 8,
2007, Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the IAEA, dismissed
the main argument used by the Bush administration when
he said "I have not received any information that there
is a concrete active nuclear weapons program going on
right now."
http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20071028-114627-4645r
. ElBaradei went on to cite U.S. military assessments
that Iran is a few years away from developing weapons
grade nuclear fuel that could be used for nuclear
weapons. The Bush administration, frustrated by the
determined opposition both within the U.S bureaucracy,
military and the international community to its plans
has adopted a three pronged track strategy for its goal
of ‘taking out’ Iran.
First Attack Strategy
The
first strategy is to drive up public perceptions of an
international security crisis by warning of a Third
World War if Iran’s nuclear program is not stopped. In a
Press Conference speech on October 17, President Bush
declared:
I've told people that, if you're interested in avoiding
World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested
in preventing them [Iranians] from having the knowledge
necessary to make a nuclear weapon. I take the threat of
Iran with a nuclear weapon very seriously. And we'll
continue to work with all nations about the seriousness
of this threat. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/10/20071017.html
Bush’s
startling rhetoric was followed soon after by Vice
President Cheney on October 23 who warned in a speech
before the Washington Institute for Near East Studies:
''Our country, and the entire international community,
cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills
its grandest ambitions.”
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/21/cheney.iran.ap/
Cheney went on to allude in his speech to military
action where the US and its allies were "prepared to
impose serious consequences." He then declared: “We will
not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.''
Bush’s
and Cheney’s alarming rhetoric provides political cover
for Israel, which is also adamantly opposed to Iran’s
nuclear developments plans, to bomb its nuclear
facilities. On September 6, 2007 an elite Israeli Air
Force Squadron launched a daring air raid and destroyed
a secret Syrian facility that had allegedly received
nuclear material from North Korea. According to a Sunday
Times report, the “Israelis proved they could penetrate
the Syrian air defense system, which is stronger than
the one protecting Iranian nuclear sites.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article2461421.ece
The Syrian raid was a test run for what Israel could do
against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Bush
administration has been encouraging a covert Israeli
military strike against Iran given determined opposition
to a U.S. led military strike. An earlier Sunday Times
report from January 2007 exposed Israeli plans for
airstrikes against Iran using nuclear armed bunker
busting weapons in the event the U.S. did not move
forward:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article1290331.ece
. However, the U.S. military is also opposed to a
unilateral attack by Israel which would result in a
furious Iranian retaliation against American forces.
There
were unconfirmed reports that the U.S. denied Israel the
flight codes to fly over Iraqi airspace for an early
2007 air raid sanctioned by neoconservatives within the
Bush administration. Currently, Admiral Fallon, the
Commander of Central Command, is opposed to U.S.
military strikes against Iran. During his confirmation
hearing in February 2007, Fallon privately confided that
an attack on Iran “will not happen on my watch”
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/05/15/1212/
. It is highly likely that Fallon would veto any Israeli
attack on Iran, and deny it the flight codes it requires
for flying over Iraqi airspace.
Second Attack Strategy
The
second strategy has been shift emphasis from removing
Iran’s nuclear facilities, to emphasizing its support
for terrorism. Given widespread military and political
opposition to attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the
Bush administration is now depicting Iran as a supporter
of terrorism in Iraq. Seymour Hersh described the shift
as follows:
“Now the emphasis is on “surgical” strikes on
Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities in Tehran and
elsewhere, which, the Administration claims, have been
the source of attacks on Americans in Iraq. What had
been presented primarily as a counter-proliferation
mission has been reconceived as counterterrorism.”
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/10/08/071008fa_fact_hersh
.
The
change in strategy was given a powerful boost by the
passage of the Kyle-Lieberman amendment by the U.S.
Senate on September 26 which designated “the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards Corps as a foreign terrorist
organization”
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d110:SP3017:
. This would enable the Bush administration to authorize
strikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard facilities
inside Iran on the basis that they are supporting Iraqi
terrorist groups targeting U.S. military forces.
According to Hersh the shift in strategy is gaining
support from among the American military. While Admiral
William Fallon has privately expressed opposition to
military action against Iran, the commander of U.S.
forces inside Iraq, General Petraeus, supports the Bush
administration’s Iran policies. Petraeus has declared:
“None of us, earlier this year, appreciated the extent
of Iranian involvement in Iraq, something about which we
and Iraq’s leaders all now have greater concern”.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/10/08/071008fa_fact_hersh?currentPage=2
Petraeus went on to claim that Iran was fighting “a
proxy war against the Iraqi state and coalition forces
in Iraq.” Consequently, limited surgical strikes against
Revolutionary Guards facilities might be authorized by
the Bush administration.
Third Attack Strategy
The
third and most dangerous strategy used by the Bush
administration is to sanction a covert mission that
would create the necessary political environment for a
war against Iran. This is arguably best evidenced in the
infamous B-52 ‘Bent Spear’ incident on August 30, 2007
where five (later changed to six) nuclear armed cruise
missiles were found en route to the Middle East for a
covert mission.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_michael__071020_the_b_52_incident__96_.htm
The nuclear warheads had adjustable yields of between 5
to 150 kilotons, and would have been ideal for use
against Iran’s underground nuclear facilities or in a
false flag operation that would be blamed on Iran.
According to confidential sources, the covert mission
involving the B-52 was to coincide with Israel’s
September 6 military strike against a Syrian military
facility
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_wayne_ma_070928_news_of_b_52_nukes_l.htm
. However, Air Force personnel stood down ‘illegal’
orders that most likely came from the White House, and
averted what could have been the detonation of one or
more nuclear devices in the Persian Gulf region. There
is much evidence to believe that ultimate responsibility
for the B-52 incident can be traced to the office of the
Vice President.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_michael__070907_was_a_covert_attempt.htm
Due to the Bush administration’s authority directly
order military units to participate in covert missions
regardless of their legality, the possibility that a
covert mission will be used to provoke a war with Iran
remains high.
Consequences of Iran being Attacked
In an
effort to intimidate Iran, the Bush administration has
regularly placed two aircraft carrier group formations
in the Persian Gulf
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2007/ss_gulf_11_04.asp
. In the naval exercises that began on Novembers 2, the
USS Enterprise (CVN 65) and a helicopter carrier, the
USS Kearsarge (LHD 3), are in the Persian Gulf
simulating “a quick response to possible crises”
http://www.cusnc.navy.mil/articles/2007/228.html .
The size and timing of possible U.S. military attacks on
Iran’s nuclear and/or military facilities, will
influence the speed and scale of an Iranian response.
Iran’s response will predictably result in a military
escalation that culminates in Iran using its arsenal of
anti-ship cruise missiles on the U.S. Fifth Fleet and
closing off the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping. Iran’s
ability to hide and launch cruise missiles from
mountainous positions all along the Persian Gulf will
make all Fifth Fleet ships in the Persian Gulf
vulnerable. The Fifth Fleet would be trapped and unable
to escape to safer waters. The Millennium Challenge
wargames in 2002 witnessed the sinking of most of the
Fifth fleet. Less advanced Silkworm cruise missiles,
when compared to Iran’s stock of Sunburn and Yakhonts
missiles, were used in a simulated asymmetric warfare
that would resemble what would occur if Iran and the
U.S. went to war. The sunk ships included an aircraft
carrier, two helicopter carriers in the total of 16
ships that were ‘refloated’ in the exercise to produce a
scripted outcome.
If an
attack on Iran were to occur before the end of 2007, it
would lead to the destruction of the USS Enterprise with
its complement of 5000 personnel on board. Further
losses in terms of support ships and other Fifth Fleet
naval forces in the Persian Gulf would be catastrophic.
An Iranian cruise missile attack would replicate losses
at Pearl Harbor where the sinking of five ships,
destruction of 188 aircraft and deaths of 2,333 quickly
led to a declaration of total war against Imperial Japan
by the U.S. Congress.
The
declaration of total war against Iran by the U.S.
Congress would lead to a sustained bombing campaign and
eventual military invasion to bring about regime change
in Iran. Military conscription would occur in order to
provide personnel for the invasion of Iran, and to
support U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan that would
come under greater pressure. Tensions would rapidly
escalate with other major powers such as Russia and
China who have supplied Iran with sophisticated weapons
systems that could be used against U.S. military assets.
The closing of the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping and
total war conditions in the U.S. would lead to a
collapse of the world economy, and further erosion of
civil liberties in a U.S. engaged in total war.
Conclusions
The
above scenario is very plausible given the military
capacities of Iran’s anti-ship cruise missiles and the
U.S. Navy’s vulnerability to these while operating in
the Persian Gulf. The Bush administration has hidden
from the American public the full extent of the Fifth
Fleet’s vulnerability, and how it could be trapped and
destroyed in a full scale conflict with Iran. This is
best evidenced by the controversial decision to downplay
the real results of the Millennium Challenge wargames
and the dissenting views of Lt. General Van Riper over
the lessons to be learned. The Bush administration is
also downplaying the significance of the 2000 GAO report
on US Navy vulnerability to cruise missile attacks.
Neo-conservatives within the Bush administration are
fully aware of the vulnerability of the Fifth Fleet, yet
have at times tried to place up to three carrier groups
in the Persian Gulf which would only augment U.S. losses
in any war with Iran. Yet the Bush administration has
still attempted to move forward with plans for nuclear,
conventional and/or covert attacks on Iran which would
precipitate much of the terrible scenario described
above.
A
reasonable conclusion to draw is that neoconservatives
within the Bush administration are willing to sacrifice
much or all of the U.S. Fifth Fleet by militarily
provoking Iran to launch its anti-ship cruise missile
arsenal in order to justify ‘total war’ against Iran,
and force regime change. An immediate solution is to
expose the neo-conservative agenda to sacrifice the
Fifth Fleet and to make accountable all those
responsible for it.
On
April 24, 2007 Congressman Dennis Kucinich began
circulating articles for impeachment proceedings against
Vice President Dick Cheney which included among his
“high crimes and misdemeanors” his advocacy of
aggression against Iran.
http://kucinich.house.gov/UploadedFiles/int3.pdf .
The relevant section in the Kucinich bill states:
“With respect to Article III, that in his conduct while
vice president of the United States, Richard Cheney
openly threatened aggression against the Republic of
Iran, absent any real threat to the United States, and
has done so with the United States's proven capability
to carry out such threats, thus undermining the national
security interests of the United States.”.
After
gaining additional support from 21 members of Congress
as co-sponsors, Kucinich introduce his articles of
impeachment as a privileged resolution on November 6 to
force a vote in the House of Representatives.
http://kucinich.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=77985
. His privileged resolution was voted on and referred to
the House Judiciary Committee for further study.
In
addition to Vice President Cheney, President Bush also
is culpable for the neo-conservative agenda to sacrifice
the Fifth Fleet by militarily provoking Iran into
launching hostilities that culminates in total war with
the Islamic Republic of Iran. Impeachment proceedings
also need to be launched against President Bush for
“high crimes and misdemeanors” for approving
neoconservative plan to sacrifice the U.S. Fifth Fleet
through an unnecessary military provocation of Iran. A
new Pearl Harbor can be averted by making accountable
Bush administration officials willing to sacrifice the
Fifth Fleet in pursuit of a neoconservative agenda.
***
About the Author
Dr.
Michael Salla is an internationally recognized scholar
in international politics, conflict resolution, US
foreign policy and the new field of 'exopolitics'. He is
author/editor of five books; and held academic
appointments in the School of International Service& the
Center for Global Peace, American University, Washington
DC (1996-2004); the Department of Political Science,
Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
(1994-96); and the Elliott School of International
Affairs, George Washington University, Washington D.C.,
(2002). He has a Ph.D in Government from the University
of Queensland, Australia, and an M.A. in Philosophy from
the University of Melbourne, Australia. He has conducted
research and fieldwork in the ethnic conflicts in East
Timor, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Sri Lanka, and organized
peacemaking initiatives involving mid to high level
participants from these conflicts.
Website:
www.americasherojourney.com
Recommended Reading
Governmental Accountability Office, “Defense
Acquisitions: Comprehensive Strategy Needed to Improve
Ship Cruise Missile Defense.” Letter Report, 07/11/2000,
GAO/NSIAD-00-149. http://fas.org/man/gao/nsiad-00-149.htm
Mark
Gaffney, “The Sunburn - Iran's Awesome Nuclear
Anti-Ship Missile The Weapon That Could Defeat The US In
The Gulf” 11/02/2004,
http://www.rense.com/general59/theSunburniransawesome.htm
Mark Gaffney, “Myth Of US Invincibility Floats In The
Persian Gulf,” 04/16/2005 “http://www.rense.com/general64/fore.htm
Seymour
Hersh, “The Iran Plans: Would President Bush go to war
to stop Tehran from getting the bomb?” New Yorker,
4//17/2006
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/04/17/060417fa_fact
Seymour
Hersh, “Last Stand: The military’s problem with the
President’s Iran policy,”New Yorker, 07/10/2006
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/07/10/060710fa_fact
Seymour
Hersh, “Shifting Targets: The Administration’s plan for
Iran,” 10/08/ 2007
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/10/08/071008fa_fact_hersh
Dennis
Kucinich, “Rep. Dennis Kucinich Privileged Resolution,”
Speech to U.S. House of Representatives 11/06/07, http://kucinich.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=78044
Michael
Salla, “The B-52 Incident – An Unfolding Saga of
Villains, Scapegoats and Heroes,” OpEdNews, 10/20/2007
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_michael__071020_the_b_52_incident__96_.htm
Michael
Salla, “Was a Covert Attempt to Bomb Iran with Nuclear
Weapons foiled by a Military Leak?” OpEdNews, 9/07/2007
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_michael__070907_was_a_covert_attempt.htm
Phil
Tissue, et. al., “Attacking the Cruise Missile Threat,”
Joint Forces Staff College, 09/08/2003
http://www.jfsc.ndu.edu/current_students/documents_policies/documents/jca_cca_awsp/Cruise_Missile_Defense_Final.doc