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US 'Declaration' a
Setback for Maliki
By Sami Moubayed
12/01/07 "Asia
Times" --- - DAMASCUS - Sometimes, frequently
nowadays, one doubts the wisdom of decision-makers in
Washington. The case was clear, for example, with Syria and
Palestine. When President George W Bush comes out to praise
political prisoners in Damascus, he completely ruins their
credibility in the Syrian Street, projecting them as stooges for
the United States. When he embraces Mahmud Abbas of Palestine,
the same impression is made on ordinary Palestinians who
immediately write off their president as a puppet for
Washington, making it difficult for him - if not impossible - to
discuss peace with Israel.
The situation now applies to Iraq as well.
For four years, the Americans have been pushing for a security
breakthrough in Iraq. The White House has been desperate for a
"success story" to sell on Iraq to the American public. Chances
seemed slim earlier this summer as an increasing number of Iraqi
politicians walked out on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. By
October, his government had lost legitimacy, since it no longer
included Sunnis from the Iraqi Accordance Front or Shi'ites from
the Sadrist bloc.
The Americans held on to Maliki, fearing a vacuum if he left. So
desperate was the US administration that it began funding and
arming Sunni tribesmen in Iraq to combat al-Qaeda. This caused
uproar in the Iraqi street, particularly among Iraqi Shi'ites,
who claimed that the Sunnis would train their guns on both the
Americans and the Shi'ites the minute they were finished
fighting al-Qaeda.
They cited how US support for Osama bin Laden backfired the
minute he was finished fighting the Soviets in the Soviets in
Afghanistan in the late 1980s. When Bush came to Iraq, he had
his picture taken with Abdul-Sattar Abu Risheh, one of the
cooperative Sunni tribal leaders. Maliki described him as a
"national hero". Seventy-two hours later, Vice President Tarek
al-Hashemi announced a "reward" (or as some would say
punishment) for the Sunni provinces working against al-Qaeda.
A total of US$84 million would go to the reconstruction of
Ramadi, with an additional $50 million in compensation for its
residents, along with 6,000 job opportunities. Shortly
afterwards, Abu Risheh was assassinated near his home in Ramadi.
Maliki blamed al-Qaeda. It was a clear message as to how far the
militants were willing to go to punish anybody working with the
Americans. Abu Risheh had not only fought al-Qaeda, but lobbied
relentlessly with government authorities to amend the de-Ba'athification
laws that targeted the Sunni community, and restore senior
Sunnis to posts in the Iraqi army. Without him, Maliki - and
Bush - have one less friend in Iraq.
And now, the Americans have done the same thing to Maliki. Over
the past 15 days, a lot of positive news came in from Baghdad.
One was a significant improvement in local security, estimated
by Maliki at 77% better. Cafes - abandoned by night since 2003 -
were once again swarming with Iraqis, thanks to the improved
security situation. An estimated 1,000 Iraqis were returning to
Iraq per day from neighboring Syria, thanks to better security.
The reasons varied. One was improved US and Iraqi patrolling of
Baghdad. Another was a pledge by Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr
to bring all military activities of his Mahdi Army to a
six-month halt. He had been accused of creating major
disturbances in Sunni districts. Also, armed Sunni militiamen
(working with the Americans) were able to keep al-Qaeda at bay
during the months of September-November. Maliki seemed to be
doing increasingly well.
The Iraqi Accordance Front, a Sunni bloc with 44 seats in
Parliament (out of 275) agreed to reduce its demands and restore
its six ministers to the Maliki cabinet. The Sadrists decided to
end their decades-long animosity with the Supreme Iraqi Council
(SIIC) that is headed by Muqtada's archenemy, Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim. Both groups, who control all Shi'ite militiamen in
Iraq, forgot their rivalry for Shi'ite dominance and decided to
unite in order to bring stability and security to Iraq.
There was even speculation that Muqtada would restore his
ministers to the Maliki cabinet when and if the Accordance Front
withdrew its August resignations. Iran, which has been accused
by the United States of funding terrorism in Iraq, had seemingly
also decided to cooperate and reduce violence.
Things seemed rosy for Maliki, until this week, when Bush
convinced him to sign a "declaration of principles" with the
United States. Among other things, the declaration pledged to
disarm all militias in Iraq, without naming them, and fire all
militiamen who had joined the police and security forces under
the nose of the Maliki government.
Politically, it promised to uphold the Iraqi constitution (which
is already vetoed in current form by the majority of Sunnis),
and prevent any seizure of power in Baghdad through illegal
terms (like a political or military coup). Militarily, the
agreement specified that the US would come to Iraq's defense if
and when it came under any attack by a foreign power.
On the economic level, the declaration called for canceling all
of Iraq's foreign debt and helping it attract direct foreign
investment. The non-binding agreement does not mention a
timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Sources in
Baghdad say that Maliki was reluctant to say "yes" to the US
president, knowing
that this would be an earthquake within conservative circles of
Iraq. He was pressured to do so, however, by the Americans.
The Sadrists, who had been flirting with Maliki for 10 days,
immediately cut off contacts, claiming that the agreement "sets
the ground for long-term occupation". Muqtada was furious that
Maliki never presented the agreement to Parliament before
signing it off with the US President. One of his top commanders,
Falah Shanshal, said that it "contradicted" with everything the
Sadrists had been working for (in terms of a rapprochement with
Maliki).
Earlier, Maliki had presented a document to the Political
Council for National Security. It contained a clause asking for
a timetable from the US administration, and stressed the need
for the Americans to transfer all military and administrative
affairs to the Iraqi government. In the current draft of the
Maliki-Bush agreement, no such clauses existed. The earlier
document also called for a military pact with the United States,
which was vetoed by the Sadrists because "it was an attempt to
find a legal framework to keep foreign troops [in Iraq], or a
civilian occupation".
The Iraqi Accordance Front (equally furious at the prime
minister) sent a strong-worded condemnation of the agreement to
the US Embassy in Baghdad, signed by its leader, Vice President
Tarek al-Hashemi. He claimed that the agreement was "flawed and
ambiguous". Adnan al-Duleimi of the Iraqi Accordance Front spoke
to the Iraqi newspaper Ilaf and added, "The Iraqi government,
represented by the prime minister, acts arbitrarily and
unilaterally and seeks to exclude all political components." He
said that Maliki "is in charge of everything in a dictatorial,
strict manner [words often used by Maliki himself to describe
ex-president Saddam Hussein]".
He then called for reducing Maliki's powers, accusing him of
"dictatorial domination and despotism". In a clear message on
whether the Front will return to power, after having flirted
with Maliki for the past 10 days and reduced its conditions for
a comeback, Duleimi added, "I do not think the political process
will advance. Rather, it will fall behind." He wrapped up
saying: "Maliki is sectarian. He wants to monopolize power and
exclude political entities ... I am absolutely certain that
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki wants to exclude the Front and
marginalize the Sunnis."
Maliki's office responded to the avalanche of protests by
assuring the Iraqis that what was signed with the Americans was
"a set of principles and not a treaty". It was non-binding and
therefore, did not need parliamentary ratification, said Sadeq
al-Rikabi, a political advisor to Maliki.
Watching the war of words between Maliki and everybody else is
the Anbar Awakening Council. The US-backed group is in a tight
position. In as much as it enjoys its newfound status - from
rebel to freedom-fighter, in American terms - it realizes that
it cannot antagonize the Iraqi street by cementing its alliance
to Maliki and the Americans. The "declaration of principals"
makes life all the more difficult for the Awakening Council.
The assassination of Abu Risheh is a clear reminder of what will
happen to those who become too close to Bush. Adnan al-Duleimi,
who despises the Awakening Council (seeing them as puppets for
the Americans), has often said, "They cannot be a substitute for
the Accordance Front. We are MPs elected by the Iraqi people. We
are the real, official representatives of an important
political, demographic and sectarian component of Iraq."
With such a campaign against them, the Awakening Council will
have to reconsider their alliance with Maliki in light of his
"declaration of principles" with Bush.
Not calling for a timetable for US troop withdrawal is a red
line that most major political groups in Iraq will not tolerate.
If Maliki does not change course - fast - then not only would
Muqtada and the Front re-lose their confidence and willingness
to cooperate with him, but so will the Awakening Council. And if
that happens, Anbar province, whose newfound security has been a
source of pride for the prime minister, will rise into flames
once again. Simply put, the tribal leaders, afraid of angering
the Front and losing support in their own constituencies, will
refuse to fight al-Qaeda any longer.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd.
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