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U.S.: Iran Halted
Nuke Work In 2003
By Ray Locker and Richard Willing
12/03/07 "USA
TODAY" -- -- WASHINGTON — Iran ceased its nuclear
weapons program in 2003 and has not resumed work toward building
nuclear weapons, a National Intelligence Estimate released
Monday said.
The estimate, reflecting the collective judgment of the nation's
16 intelligence agencies, also concludes that Tehran likely is
"keeping open the option" to develop nuclear weapons in the
future by continuing to build missiles and pursue a civilian
nuclear power program.
The estimate reverses claims made two years ago that Iran
appeared "determined to develop" a nuclear weapons program.
"Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests
it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have
been judging since 2005," the report said. "Our assessment that
the program probably was halted primarily in response to
international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to
influence on the issue than we judged previously."
President Bush was briefed on the findings Wednesday. The Bush
administration, which has vigorously claimed Iran is trying to
develop nuclear weapons, called the estimate good news, although
it undercut some of the administration's claims.
"Today's National Intelligence Estimate offers some positive
news," national security adviser Stephen Hadley said in a
prepared statement. "It confirms that we were right to be
worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons. It tells
us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does
not happen."
The estimate also concluded with "moderate-to-high confidence"
that Iran has not obtained enough materials from abroad to build
a nuclear weapon. Iran, the report said, has probably imported
some "fissionable" material, such as uranium, to develop a
weapon.
Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has repeatedly insisted
that his nation's nuclear program is aimed only at developing a
power source for civil society.
The report also said:
— The earliest Iran could assemble enough highly enriched
uranium for a bomb is late 2009, although that is "very
unlikely."
— Iran would be capable of producing enough highly enriched
uranium for a bomb in the 2010-2015 time frame.
— Iran is developing the scientific capabilities to create a
bomb if it chooses to do so. For example, its "civilian uranium
enrichment program" is continuing.
— Iran retains the "scientific, technical and industrial
capacity" to produce nuclear weapons in the future if its
leaders decide to.
Silvestre Reyes, D-Tex, chairman of the House Intelligence
Committee, called the about face on Iran's nuclear program a
"remarkable shift." He vowed to question intelligence officials
closely about the classfied sources upon which they based their
judgment.
Intelligence officials who helped prepare the estimate made no
apologies for overlooking that the weapons program had been
halted in the 2005 NIE. The officials said new information
indicates that the Iranians halted their secret program in late
2003, less than 12 months before the 2005 estimates was
prepared. New information causing the intelligence agencies to
conclude that the program had been halted continued to be
evaluated until a few weeks ago.
In 2007, the Iranian government allowed some journalists to
visit a nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz. U.S. intelligence
officials viewed photographs the journalists made and concluded
that Tehran continues to face "significant technical problems"
in using the facility to enrich uranium.
The estimate said officials lack sufficient intelligence to
"judge confidently" whether Iran plans to re-start its weapons
program.
Iran's decision to halt the program was "guided by a
cost-benefit approach" that took into account the "political,
economic and military costs" of continuing in the face of world
scrutiny and possible sanctions.
Continued pressure, combined with "opportunities" for Iran to
obtain prestige and regional influence without a weapons
program, might encourage Tehran to continue the current halt.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released
about 2 1/2 pages of the NIE's declassified "key judgments." The
full estimate is about 140 pages.
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