By Juan Cole
23/06/08 "ICH" --- American television loves natural disasters. The Burmese cyclones that may have carried off as many as 200,000 people offered the cameras high drama.
The floods in Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri along the Mississippi River, which have wiped out thousands of homes, have been carefully detailed hour by hour.
But American television is little interested in the massive disaster blithely visited upon Iraq by Washington. Oh, there is the occasional human interest story. Angelina Jolie's visit sparked a headline or two. Briefly.
By now, summer
of 2008, excess
deaths from
violence in Iraq
since March of
2003
must be at least
a million.
This conclusion
can be reached
more than one
way. There
is not much
controversy
about it
in the
scientific
community.
Some 310,000
of those were
probably killed
by US troops or
by the US Air
Force, with the
bulk dying in
bombing raids by
US fighter jets
and helicopter
gunships on
densely
populated city
and town
quarters.
In absolute
numbers, that
would be like
bombing to death
everyone in
Pittsburgh, Pa.
Or Cincinnati,
Oh.
Only, the US is
11 times more
populous than
Iraq, so 310,000
Iraqi corpses
would equal 3.4
million dead
Americans. So
proportionally
it would be like
firebombing to
death everyone
in Chicago.
The one million
number includes
not just
war-related
deaths but all
killings beyond
what you would
have expected
from the
2000-2002
baseline. That
is, if tribal
feuds got out of
hand and killed
a lot of people
because the
Baath police
were demobilized
or disarmed and
so no longer
intervened,
those deaths go
into the mix.
All the Sunnis
killed in the
north of Hilla
Province (the
'triangle of
death') when
Shiite clans
displaced from
the area by
Saddam came back
up to reclaim
their farms
would be
included. The
kidnap victims
killed when the
ransom did not
arrive in time
would be
included. And,
of course, the
sectarian,
ethnic and
militia
violence, even
if Iraqi on
Iraqi, would
count. And it
hasn't been just
hot spots like
Baghdad, Basra,
Mosul and
Kirkuk. The rate
of excess
violent death
has been pretty
standard across
Arab Iraq.
As for the
Iraqis killed by
Americans,
like the 24
civilians in
Haditha, the
survivors are
not going to be
pro-American any
time soon. The
US can always
find politicians
to come out and
say nice things
on a visit to
the Rose Garden.
But the people.
I don't think
the people are
saying nice
things in Arabic
behind our
backs.
The wars of
Iraq-- the
Iran-Iraq War,
the repressions
of the Kurds and
the Shiites, the
Gulf War, and
the American
Calamity,
may have left
behind as many
as 3 million
widows.
Having lost
their family's
breadwinner,
many are
destitute.
Although it is
very good news
that the number
of Iraqis killed
in political
violence fell in
May to 532
according to
official
sources, the
number was twice
that in March
and April.
And,it should be
remembered that
independent
observers have
busted the
Pentagon for
grossly
under-reporting
attacks and
casualties. If
someone shows up
dead and they
aren't sure
exactly why, it
isn't counted as
political
violence, just
as an ordinary
murder. Attacks
per day are
measured by
whether the
mortar shell
scratches any US
equipment when
it explodes. If
not, it didn't
happen.
McClatchy
estimated a year
and a half ago
that attacks
were being
underestimated
by a factor
of 10.
By the way,
isn't is a
little odd that
the death rate
fell in
the month of the
Great Mosul
Campaign? I
conclude that
either it can't
have been much
of a campaign or
someone is
cooking the
death
statistics.
But over 500 a
month dead in
political
violence is
appalling
enough. The
Srebenica
massacre in 1995
killed 8,000. At
the average rate
of death in Iraq
this winter and
spring, a
similar massacre
will have been
racked up in
2008. In the
Northern Ireland
troubles over 30
years, about
3,000 people
died, and it was
widely
considered a bad
situation. That
death toll is
still being
achieved every 6
months in Iraq
according to the
official May
statistics.
And, of course,
by the rule of
11,that death
toll would be
like nearly
6,000 Americans
dying in
political
violence every
month, or 72,000
a year. (Note
that this 72,000
figure would
only be
political
deaths, since it
does not include
criminal
homicides). The
annual total
murder rate in
the US is about
16,000,
including
political
violence, what
little there is.
The US is one of
the most violent
societies on
earth, and Iraq
in May makes it
look like a
pacifist
convention.
In these
situations,
typically 3
persons are
wounded for
every one
killed. In Iraq,
I suspect it is
higher, because
US bombings and
guerrilla
bombings are
such a big part
of the violence.
But let us be
conservative.
That would mean
3 million
Iraqi wounded in
the past five
years.
Equivalent to 33
million
Americans
wounded, that
is, the entire
state of
California
crippled or in
bandages.
As for the
displaced (i.e.
homeless), they
amount to a
startling
5 million
persons.
There were 1.8
million
internally
displaced in
January of 2007,
and by December
it had risen to
2.4 million.
There are 2.3
million
externally
displaced, 2
million of them
in Jordan and
Syria.
In fact 5
million
displaced
persons is
almost the
entire
population of
nearby countries
such as Jordan
or Israel! 5
million is about
the number of
Jews in Israel,
for instance. In
absolute
numbers, that is
how many Iraqis
are living in
some other
country or some
other province,
having lost
their homes.
Some 1.4 million
Iraqis are stuck
in Syria,
many becoming
increasingly
penniless.
Another 500,000
to 800,000 have
been displaced
to Jordan, which
has now closed
its borders to
them. Please
read this
excellent piece
of reporting,
which points out
that the US has
done diddly
squat for these
millions of
people upon whom
it has visited a
world class
catastrophe,
neither
allotting
meaningful
amounts of aid
nor admitting
more than a
token number as
immigrants.
Sweden has
admitted 40,000
Iraqis, nearly 4
times what the
US even plans
to. Please write
the Senate and
the Congress and
demand that
something be
done for these,
our victims.
40% of Iraq's
middle class is
outside the
country.
Very few of the
refugees abroad
have returned,
only a few
thousand. Only
12% of the
returnees say
they are going
back because
they think it is
safe now,
according to UN
border polls.
The refusal of
the refugees to
return makes me
suspicious of
the good news
stories about
security
improvements in
Iraq. There is
an Arabic
proverb that
"The people of a
house know best
what is in the
house."
2 Shiite
brothers who
returned home to
Baquba an
hour northeast
of Baghdad were
just kidnapped
and killed by
Sunnis.
5 million
displaced Iraqis
would be like 55
million
displaced
Americans, or
the equivalent
of everybody
in California
and New York
combined
American
commentators
peculiarly lack
a social
dimension to
their analyses.
So if PM Nuri
al-Maliki sends
some troops up
to Mosul and the
guerrillas there
lie low for a
while, that is
"progress" and
"good news."
Well, maybe it
is, I don't
know.
I do know that
the apocalypse
that the United
States has
unleashed upon
Iraq is among
the greatest
catastrophes to
befall any
country in the
past 50 years.
It is a much
worse disaster
over time than
the Burmese
cyclone or the
Mississippi
floods.
You won't see it
on television
very much these
days.
Even if it gets
better, it won't
get better very
fast for all
those millions
wounded,
widowed,
orphaned, and
displaced; as
for the 1
million dead, as
they say in
Arabic, God have
mercy on them (Allah
yarhamhum).
Maybe it will
get better
sooner for the
politicians in
the Green Zone.
They are the
sort of people
that the think
tanks in
Washington seem
to care about.
McClatchy
reports
political
violence in Iraq
on Saturday:
' Baghdad
- Around 1 p.m. a bomb planted in the car of the office manager of the Iraqi minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research exploded in Al Tobchi neighborhood injuring three including the minister's office manager.
- Around 4 p.m. a bomb planted in a civilian car exploded in Al Nidhal Street injuring two Iraqi employees of a local LG Company branch.
- Around 5 p.m. a bomb planted in a police vehicle exploded in Al Andalus square injuring two policemen.
- Police found two dead bodies throughout Baghdad; one in Al Baladiyat, one in Mansour.
Diyala
- Police found the bodies of two brothers, Ali and Mohamed Zaid, in Al Tahrir neighborhood in Baquba . . .
Kirkuk
- Around 8 a.m. a car exploded in central Kirkuk injuring the two passengers in the car. Police said they suspect the two passengers were planning a car bomb attack. The two suspects are under investigation, police said.'
