U.S. Puts Brakes on Israeli Plan for Attack on Iran Nuclear
Facilities
By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent
13/087/08 "Haaretz" -- -
The American administration has
rejected an Israeli request for military equipment and support
that would improve Israel's ability to attack Iran's nuclear
facilities.
A report published last week by the Washington-based Institute
for Science and International Security (ISIS) states that
military strikes are unlikely to destroy
Iran's centrifuge program
for enriching uranium.
The Americans viewed the request, which was transmitted (and
rejected) at the highest level, as a sign that Israel is in the
advanced stages of preparations to attack Iran. They therefore
warned Israel against attacking, saying such a strike would
undermine American interests. They also demanded that Israel
give them prior notice if it nevertheless decided to strike
Iran.
As compensation
for the requests it rejected, Washington offered to improve
Israel's defenses against surface-to-surface missiles.
Israel responded by saying it reserves the right to take
whatever action it deems necessary if diplomatic efforts to halt
Iran's nuclearization fail.
Senior Israeli officials had originally hoped that U.S.
President George Bush would order an American strike on Iran's
nuclear facilities before leaving office, as America's military
is far better equipped to conduct such a strike successfully
than is Israel's.
Jerusalem also fears that an Israeli strike, even if it
succeeded well enough to delay Iran's nuclear development for a
few years, would give Iran international legitimacy for its
program, which it currently lacks. Israel, in contrast, would be
portrayed as an aggressor, and would be forced to contend alone
with Iran's retaliation, which would probably include thousands
of missile strikes by Iranian allies Hezbollah, Hamas and
perhaps even Syria.
Recently, however, Israel has concluded that Bush is unlikely to
attack, and will focus instead on ratcheting up diplomatic
pressure on Tehran. It prefers to wait until this process has
been exhausted, though without conceding the military option.
Israel's assumption is that Iran will continue to use delaying
tactics, and may even agree to briefly suspend its uranium
enrichment program in an effort to see out the rest of Bush's
term in peace.
The American-Israeli dispute over a military strike against Iran
erupted during Bush's visit to Jerusalem in May. At the time,
Bush held a private meeting on the Iranian threat with Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and the
Israelis presented their request for certain specific items of
military equipment, along with diplomatic and security backing.
Following Bush's return to Washington, the administration
studied Israel's request, and this led it to suspect that Israel
was planning to attack Iran within the next few months. The
Americans therefore decided to send a strong message warning it
not to do so.
U.S. National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell and Chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen both visited here in
June and, according to the Washington Post, told senior Israeli
defense officials that Iran is still far from obtaining nuclear
weapons, and that an attack on Iran would undermine American
interests. Therefore, they said, the U.S. would not allow
Israeli planes to overfly Iraq en route to Iran.
The Americans sent a similar message to Iraq, which had objected
vociferously to the idea of its air space being used for an
Israeli attack on Iran.
These private messages were accompanied by a series of leaks
from the Pentagon that Israel interpreted as attempts to thwart
any possibility of an attack on Iran. For instance, the
Americans revealed details of a major Israel Air Force exercise
in the Mediterranean; they also said they doubted Israel had
adequate intelligence about Iran's nuclear facilities. In
addition, Mullen spoke out publicly against an attack on Iran.
Two weeks ago, Barak visited Washington for talks with his
American counterpart, Robert Gates, and Vice President Richard
Cheney. Both conversations focused on Iran, but the two
Americans presented conflicting views: Gates vehemently opposes
an attack on Iran, while Cheney is the administration's leading
hawk.
Barak presented Israel's assessments of the Iranian situation
and warned that Iran was liable to advance its nuclear program
under cover of the endless deliberations about sanctions - which
have thus far produced little in the way of action. He also
acknowledged that effective sanctions would require cooperation
from Russia, China and India, all of which currently oppose
sanctions with real teeth.
Russia, however, is considered key to efforts to isolate Iran,
and Israeli officials have therefore urged their American
counterparts in recent months to tone down Washington's other
disputes with Moscow to focus all its efforts on obtaining
Russia's backing against Iran. For instance, they suggested that
Washington offer to drop its plan to station a missile defense
system in Poland and the Czech Republic - a proposal Russia
views as a threat, though Washington insists the system is aimed
solely at Iran - in exchange for Russia agreeing to stiffer
sanctions against Iran. However, the administration rejected
this idea.
In an attempt to compensate Israel for having rejected all its
proposals, Washington then offered to bolster Israel's defenses
against ballistic missiles. For instance, Gates proposed
stationing an advanced radar system in Israel and linking Israel
directly into America's early warning satellite network; he also
offered increased American funding for the development of two
Israeli missile defense systems - the Arrow-3, an upgrade of
Israel's existing Arrow system for intercepting ballistic
missiles, and Iron Dome, a system designed to intercept
short-range rockets. In addition, Washington agreed to sell
Israel nine Super Hercules long-range transport aircraft for $2
billion. However, it would not agree to supply Israel with any
offensive systems.
Now, Israel is awaiting the outcome of the latest talks between
the West and Iran, as well as a formal announcement of the
opening of an American interests section in Tehran. Israel views
the latter as sure proof that Washington is not planning a
military strike.
© Copyright
2008 Haaretz. All rights reserved
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