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Under Moscow's wing
Events in Georgia have had some surprising repercussions in the
Middle East, leaving Syria looking perkier than usual
By James Denselow
22/08/08 "The Guardian" -- -
Israel's involvement with the Georgian military has been
somewhat overlooked in light of more blatant US support, such as
the airlift of some 2,000 Georgian troops from Iraq at the start
of the conflict. However Misha Glenny
spotted it, writing in the New Statesman that Prime Minister
Putin warned President Shimon Peres to "pull out your trainers
and weapons or we will escalate our co-operation with Syria and
Iran" – after which Israel dutifully complied.
Hizbullah's leader, Hassan
Nasrallah also spotted it and subsequently
mocked Israel's withdrawal, claiming that "the entire front
line of the [Israeli] army's brass stepped down because of the
[Lebanon] war. Gal Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to
Georgia and they too lost because of him."
The Russians are indeed
emboldened by their sweeping victory which has highlighted the
impotence of both the US and Nato. Jonathan Spyer, in the
Jerusalem Post,
described Russian action as throwing down "a direct
challenge to the US-dominated post Cold-war international order"
and expressed concern over Moscow's willingness to supply Syria
with the S-300 long-range anti-aircraft missile system, a
defensive measure that has the potential to impede Israeli
airstrikes such as the one that targeted a suspected Syrian
nuclear site last September.
Then the BBC
reported yesterday that Syria's President Assad met with
President Medvedev at the Black Sea resort of Sochi to discuss
"deals on anti-aircraft and anti-tank missile systems".
Like any customer visiting his
main arms dealer, Assad praised Russian actions in Georgia,
explaining that "we understand the Russian stance and the
Russian military response as a result of the provocations which
took place. We appreciate the courageous decision taken by the
Russian leadership in responding to the international
initiatives and the start of withdrawing its forces".
Assad also signalled his
willingness to have Russian Iskander missiles (which according
to GlobalSecurity.org are
capable of overcoming the enemy's anti-missile defences and
hitting targets at a distance of 280 kilometers) situated on
Syrian territory, although he refused to commit to any timeline
for such a deployment.
The Syrians have survived six
years of Isolation led by Washington and Tel Aviv following
9/11, an isolation that has only shown recent signs of ending.
If a small country like Syria can survive years of western
isolation then the Russian bear empowered with petrodollars and
a stable, if undemocratic, leadership, will surely feel more
confident in throwing its foreign policy weight around.
The Times
reported that Russia's activism, particularly in arms
dealing, was sparking fears of a Middle East "Cold War". In
previous years Russia has respected US/Israeli "red lines" on
supplying equipment to Syria; however with the potential red
lines crossed by the other side in terms of support for Georgia
and signing Poland up to the anti-ballistic missile treaty, all
bets may be off. Indeed, the BBC
reported the Russian reaction as an ominous foreign ministry
statement saying that Moscow "will be forced to react, and not
only through diplomatic demarches".
Syria has a number of offensive
and defensive weapon orders pending, however what could
radically alter the balance of power is a more overt Russian
presence in the country itself. Over the past few years defence
analysts have kept a close eye on the Russian navy's activity at
the Syrian port of Tartus. There are real fears that the
Russians are keen to transform what was little more than a
refuelling station into a fully-fledged Russian Mediterranean
fleet naval base where they can relocate much of the Black Sea
fleet currently held up in Sevastopol.
Satellite shots of Russian
involvement in dredging the port to allow access to larger
vessels provide more evidence to support this theory which would
place an aggressive Russia right on the doorstep of Israel and
in close proximity to the strategic Turkish port of Ceyhan, the
terminus of a major new oil pipeline linked to the Azerbaijani
port city of Baku – an incendiary combination with huge tactical
ramifications.
This makes grim reading for the
lame duck leaders, Bush and Olmert, neither of whom have the
political capital of the Russian Putin-Medvedev alliance.
Perhaps the only manoeuvre that can undermine an aggressive
Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance is the Israeli-Syrian peace
talks, which are still ongoing. If they result in an unlikely
peace treaty there is hope yet that this new and dangerous cold
war will not emerge.
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