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The Saakashvili Experiment
By Ramzy Baroud
22/08/08 "ICH
" -- --
Just as the world's attention was focussed on China's Beijing
Olympics, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, on 7 August,
invaded the tiny breakaway province of South Ossetia. The
initial attack on the South Ossetian capital, Tskninvali, soon
extended to an all out war, which eventually invited Russia's
wrath, and the death of thousands of innocent civilians on both
sides.
Prior to Saakashvili's war, little was known about the political
specifics of that area and the brewing decades-long territorial
disputes which date back to the early 20th century, highlighted
during an intense civil war that followed the break-up of the
Soviet Union and its satellite states. Georgia's successful
secession from the Soviet grip, understandably, inspired
independence fervour in ethnic regions within Georgia. The small
region of South Ossetia -- majority ethnic Russians and minority
Georgians -- sought to join the North Ossetian province, which
remained part of Russia. Another region was Abkhazia, whose
protracted fight with the central Georgian government has also
provoked much violence.
The fact that South Ossetia belongs to Georgia was hardly
contested. Even Russia has long recognised Georgian sovereignty
in that region. Russia, nonetheless, remained largely involved
in South Ossetia -- mostly as a "peacekeeping force",
rationalising such involvement as essential for the national
security of the country and the safety of its citizens. Most
South Ossentians -- like Abkhazians -- hold Russian citizenship.
But setting such rationale aside, the fact is that South Ossetia
is an important component in Russian foreign policy, and
particularly its policy and attitude towards former Soviet
republics and satellite states in Eastern Europe. Since the
collapse of the Soviet Union, the Cold War was transformed into
a political scramble: the US and NATO expanded their boundaries
of influence and territorial outreach, while Russia struggled to
maintain a level of influence and halt the encroachment of the
US-led NATO.
Georgia, situated strategically between Russia, the Black Sea,
Turkey and Iran, deserved due attention. The US became keenly
interested in ensuring the inclusion of Georgia into its sphere
of influence. Through dedicated efforts, a pro-Western leader,
Saakashvili, came to power through a highly televised "Rose
Revolution". While the integrity of the elections that followed
and the role of the CIA in concocting and ensuring the success
of the "revolution" are still intensely debated, the fact is
Georgia fell into a new sphere of influence. Saakashvili is a
man desperate for European-US validation. He too sought NATO
membership and heedlessly invited Israeli military "specialists"
to modernise his country's armed forces in anticipation of a
battle with Russia.
Evidently, Georgia's leader knew well that a victory against
Russia was unattainable. By embarking on a war against a tiny
province, because, as he claimed, he ran out of patience,
Saakashvili was following a script that was hardly of his own
writing. The logic behind the war was to test Russia's resolve,
and the readiness of its newest president, Dmitri Medvedev. A
hesitant Russian response would be taken as another sign of
weakness or lack of political and military decisiveness in
Moscow, which might also inspire more such experiments. Too
harsh a response could also be decried as "genocide" and war
crimes and could be exploited to compel Russia's weaker
neighbours to seek the protection of NATO.
This is what indeed transpired since Russia called off military
actions 13 August.
First, leaders of pro-US countries in the region -- namely,
Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and
Latvia -- attended a rally in support of Georgia's Saakashvili
on 14 August in Tbilisi. The televised event was accompanied by
a flood of experts pedalling Russia's evil intents to the world
media while promoting a larger US role to ensure the
independence of these nations and to preserve their fragile
democracies. "They're all seriously worried that it's Georgia
today and one of them tomorrow," surmised Krzysztof Bobinski,
director of the Warsaw-based Unia & Polska Foundation.
Second, the Russian response to Georgia's war in South Ossetia
has resulted in a remarkable breakthrough in negotiations
between the US and East European countries regarding the Bush
administration's plans for a new missile defence shield. On 14
August, "Poland and the US signed a deal to build a
controversial missile defence shield in Eastern Europe,"
reported the British Telegraph newspaper. "The agreement
highlights how Russia's invasion of Georgia has prompted a swift
reappraisal of the region's security and alliances. The US and
Poland have been talking about the missile shield for a year but
rushed to cement their alliance in the wake of this week's
conflict."
It's rather interesting how a controversial and unpopular plan
that has raised the ire of the Polish people -- 70 per cent of
the country is against it -- was overcome within days of war and
is now embraced as a necessary deterrent. One cannot help but
question the relationship between the decision to invade South
Ossetia, which was certain to compel some Russian response, and
the rush to embrace Bush's military designs in that region. The
plan to place missiles in Poland seemed like a resounding
failure as late as last month when US Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice "tried and failed just before leaving for
Europe on Monday [7 July] to seal a deal to place missiles in
Poland, the State Department said," according to CNN. Now Poland
is all for it. It return, Poland would receive US assistance in
overhauling its military, reminiscent of the Israeli-US efforts
in aiding Georgia's military, which emboldened the latter to
pursue war with Russia.
While Russia's decisive response to Saakashvili's war may have
temporarily reaffirmed Russia's military readiness, it has
already provided the needed justification for greater US-NATO
intervention in Georgia, Poland, the Czech Republic and
elsewhere. That US presence might be welcomed by the unnerved
"democratic" leaders of these states but it will pique the fury
of Russia, whose political radars are intercepting the Bush
administration's every move in the region with great alarm.
The ceasefire between Russia and Georgia, achieved through
French mediation, will hardly be the end of the new Cold War
underway in an area too accustomed to cold wars. The fact is
that Russia will fight to break away from the pro- US ring of
former Soviet states that promise to undermine its influence in
a Eurasia, and the US will do its utmost to maintain a level of
tension, if not hostilities in the region, for without it
neither a missile shield nor the 270 billion barrels of oil in
the Caspian basin can be brought within Washington's reach.
-Ramzy Baroud (www.ramzybaroud.net)
is an author and editor of PalestineChronicle.com. His work has
been published in many newspapers and journals worldwide. His
latest book is The Second Palestinian Intifada: A Chronicle of a
People's Struggle (Pluto Press, London).
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