Nuclear Chicken in Poland
Putin Can't Afford to Back Down
By Mike
Whitney
"Don’t blame the mirror if your face is crooked."
Vladimir Putin quoting Russian proverb
24/08/08 "ICH"
-- -
If
the Bush administration proceeds with its plan to deploy its
Missile Defense System in Poland, Russian Prime Minister
Putin will be forced to remove it militarily. He has no
other option. The proposed system integrates the the entire
US nuclear arsenal into one operational-unit a mere 115
miles from the Russian border. It's no different than
Khrushchev's plan to deploy nuclear missiles in Cuba in the
1960s.
Early last
year, at a press conference that was censored in the United
States, Putin explained his concerns about Bush's plan:
“Once the
missile defense system is put in place it will work
automatically with the entire nuclear capability of the
United States. It will be an integral part of the US nuclear
capability....And, for the first time in history---and I
want to emphasize this---there will be elements of the US
nuclear capability on the European continent. It simply
changes the whole configuration of international
security…..Of course, we have to respond to that.”
Nuclear weapons
specialist, Francis A. Boyle, says the Bush administration's
plans represent the “longstanding US policy of nuclear
first-strike against Russia." In Boyle’s article “US
Missiles in Europe: Beyond Deterrence to First Strike
Threat” he states:
“By means of a
US first strike about 99%+ of Russian nuclear forces would
be taken out. Namely, the United States Government believes
that with the deployment of a facially successful first
strike capability, they can move beyond deterrence and into
"compellence."… This has been analyzed ad nauseam in the
professional literature. But especially by one of Harvard's
premier warmongers in chief, Thomas Schelling --winner of
the Nobel Prize in Economics granted by the Bank of Sweden--
who developed the term "compellence" and distinguished it
from "deterrence." …The USG is breaking out of a
"deterrence" posture and moving into a "compellence"
posture. (Global Research 6-6-07)
Bush's real
goal is to force Moscow to conform to Washington’s diktats
or face the prospect of first-strike nuclear annihilation.
Putin must respond.
Putin needs to
present his case before the UN General Assembly
emphasizing how the proposed US system upsets the nuclear
balance of power and poses a direct threat to Russia's
national security. He should give an account of US
activities in Central Asia since the fall of the Berlin
Wall showing how the Bush administration has pursued a
hostile policy of encirclement and strangulation towards the
Russian Federation. The US has brought most of the former
Soviet satellites into NATO, including Poland, Latvia,
Lithuania, Estonia and now is seeking membership for Georgia
and Ukraine right on Russia's border.
The US has
expanded its military installations in other areas of
Central Asia, primarily Afghanistan, posing long-range
problems for the entire region.
The Bush
administration has also used its intelligence agencies and
NGOs to foment political unrest and topple regimes which
were sympathetic to Moscow in its "color-coded" revolutions.
Eurasia is now inundated with American puppets who get their
marching-orders from the White House.
Also, the US
and its allies have declared Kosovo, a vital part of Serbian
territory, independent without UN approval. Serbia is a
traditional ally of Russia's. Many analysts now believe that
the recent fighting in South Ossetia was directly connected
to the Bush administration's blatant disregard for Serbia's
sovereignty.
Putin recently responded to these developments saying:
“Some people have the illusion that you can do everything
just as you want, regardless of the interests of other
people. Of course it is for precisely this reason that the
international situation gets worse and eventually results in
an arms race. But we are not the instigators. We do not want
it. Why would we want to divert resources to this? And we
are not jeopardizing our relations with anyone. But we must
respond. Name even one step that we have taken or one action
of ours designed to worsen the situation. There are none. We
are not interested in that. We are interested in maintaining
a good atmosphere." Putin added exasperated, “So what should
we do?” The present situation has brought us “the brink of
disaster!”
Russia has complied with its treaty obligations and
removed all of its heavy weapons from the Eastern Europe and
put them behind the Ural Mountains. They have reduced their
military by 300,000.
At the same time Washington has increased its arms
shipments to new allies in Eastern Europe and is building
two new military bases in Romania and Bulgaria. Missile
Defense components and radar are going up in the Czech
Republic and Poland. Obviously, Russia cannot continue to
disarm unilaterally while neighboring states bulk up with
new US-made weapons systems.
When Putin heard that the Bush administration was developing
"bunker-busting" nuclear weapons he said to Bush:
“It would be better to look for other ways to fight
terrorism than create low-yield nuclear weapons that lower
the threshold for using these weapons, and thereby put
humankind on the brink of nuclear catastrophe. But they
don’t listen to us. They are not looking for compromise.
Their entire point of view can be summed-up in one sentence:
‘Whoever is not with us is against us.’”
It wasn't Russia who scrapped the Anti-Ballistic Missile
Treaty (ABM) That was the Bush administration, too.
American expansionism has thrust the world into another arms
race pitting East against West Cold War-style. The present
system of international security has been upended and we are
moving inexorably towards a military showdown between the
two nuclear-armed powers.
As Putin stated at the press conference, "I am convinced
that we have reached that decisive moment when we must
seriously think about the architecture of global security.”
Indeed.
Russia is experiencing a Renaissance. 20 million people have
been raised from poverty since Putin took office 8 years
ago. The Russian economy has been growing by 7% a year, real
incomes are growing by an astonishing 12% per year and
Moscow has become a thriving center of global trade. Oil and
natural gas have restored Russia to its formal role as one
of the great world's great powers. The last thing Putin
wants is a nuclear standoff with the United States. But he
will not shirk from his responsibilities either. If the
Missile Defense system is deployed, Putin will be forced to
raise the stakes and send warplanes over the construction
site. That is the logical first-step that any responsible
leader would take before removing the site altogether.
Bush should consider very carefully whether he wants to go
ahead with this game of nuclear chicken or not. Putting a
knife to Moscow's throat is an act of aggression equal to
invading Iraq, only this time the victim has the ability to
fight back.
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