By Juan Cole
Pundit on Possible Russia-Iran Alliance To
Counter 'Unfriendly' US Moves
Article by Radzhab Safarov, General Director of the
Russian Center for Iranian Studies: "Iranian Trump Card.
Russia Can Take Control of Persian Gulf"
Vremya Novostey
Friday, August 29, 2008
Document Type: OSC Translated Text
The recognition of South Ossetia's and Abkhazia's
independence by Russia is a timely step to protect these
republics from new Georgian aggression. However, taking into
account the United States' plans to expedite Georgia's and
Ukraine's accession to the NATO military-political bloc, the
situation near the Russian border remains alarming. At the
same time Moscow has a lot of possibilities to take balanced
counter measures to the United States' and entire NATO's
unfriendly plans. In particular, Russia can rely on those
countries that effectively oppose the United States' and
their satellites' expansion. Only collective efforts can
help to create a situation which would, if not eliminate
then at least reduce the risk of the Cold War's
transformation into local and global conflicts.
For instance, Moscow could strengthen its military-technical
ties with Syria and launch negotiations on the
reestablishment of its military presence in Cuba. However,
the most serious step which the United States and especially
Israel fear (incidentally, Israel supplied arms to Georgia)
is hypothetical revision of Russia's foreign policy with
regard to Iran. A strategic alliance presuming the signing
of a new large-scale military political treaty with Iran
could change the entire geopolitical picture of the
contemporary world.
New allied relations may result in the deployment of at
least two military bases in strategic regions of Iran. One
military base could be deployed in the north of the country
in the Iranian province of Eastern Azerbaijan and the other
one in the south, on the Island of Qeshm in the Persian
Gulf. Due to the base in Iran's Eastern Azerbaijan Russia
would be able to monitor military activities in the Republic
of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and share this information
with Iran.
The deployment of a military base on the Island of Qeshm
would allow Russia to monitor the United States' and NATO's
activities in the Persian Gulf zone, Iraq and other Arab
states. With the help of special equipment Russia could
effectively monitor whois sailing toward this sea
bottleneck, from where, and with what cargo on board to
enter the World Ocean or to return.
For the first time ever Russia will have a possibility to
stop suspicious vessels and ships and inspect their cargo,
which the Americans have been cynically doing in that zone
for many decades. In exchange for the deployment of its
military bases Russia could help the Iranians to deploy
modern air defense and missile defense systems along the
perimeter of its borders. Tehran, for instance, needs
Russia's modern S-400 SAMs.
The Iranian leadership paid close attention to reports
stating that the Georgian Government's secret resolution
gave the United States and Israel a carte blanche to use
Georgian territory and local military bases for delivering
missile and bomb strikes against Iranian facilities in the
event of need. Another neighbor, Turkey, is not only a NATO
member, but also a powerful regional opponent and economic
rival of Iran. In addition to this, the Republic of
Azerbaijan has become the West's key partner on the issue of
transportation of Caspian energy resources to world markets.
The Iranians are also concerned at Baku's plans to give
Western (above all American) capital access to the so-called
Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea, which is fraught with
new conflicts, because the legal status of the Caspian Sea
has not been defined to date.
Russia and Iran can also accelerate the process of setting
up a cartel of leading gas producers, which journalists have
already dubbed the "gas OPEC." Russia and Iran occupy first
and second place in the world respectively in terms of
natural gas reserves. They jointly possess more than 60
percent of the world's gas deposits. Therefore, even small
coordination in the elaboration of a single pricing policy
may force one-half of the world, at least virtually entire
Europe, to moderate its ambitions and treat gas exporters in
a friendlier manner.
While moving toward allied relations, Russia can develop
cooperation with Iran in virtually all areas, including
nuclear power engineering. Russia can earn tens of billions
of dollars on the construction of nuclear power plants in
Iran alone. Tehran can receive not only economic, but also
political support from Russia in the development of its own
atomic energy sector.
In addition to this,in view of the imminent breakup of the
CIS from which Georgia already pulled out, Russia could
accelerate the process of accepting Iran as an equal member
of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). By accepting
Iran, one of the key countries of the Islamic world, the
organization could change fundamentally both in terms of its
potential and in terms of its regional role. Meanwhile, as
an SCO member Iran will find itself under the collective
umbrella of this organization, including under the
protection of such nuclear states as Russia and China. This
will lay foundations for a powerful Russia-Iran-China
axis,which the United States and its allies fear so much.
(Description of Source: Moscow Vremya Novostey in Russian --
Liberal, small-circulation paper that sometimes criticizes
the government)
