Pakistan's Balkanization
By SHAHID R.
SIDDIQUI
Lahore, Pakistan
22/09/08 "ICH" -- - - Re-mapping of the Muslim world is
under spotlight in the US and Pakistan's balkanization forms
a part of this agenda. American strategists are propagating
the need to redraw its borders on ethnic lines by creating
new political entities in the name of justice long denied to
'oppressed Muslim minorities'.
'Internal
factors'
are identified in each case, sometimes very naïvely, that
they believe could lead to desired fragmentation. Redrawn
maps were released, ostensibly to test the waters. That this
also reflects the mindset of the US administration can be
seen by its efforts and actions to engineer grounds for
military intervention, regime-change or fragmentation in
target countries.
Rising militant Islam, serious challenges to American
hegemony as world power, shifting of the economic epicenter
to Asia and the worsening economic situation at home, all
point to another 'New World Order' in the making – wherein
America stands to lose much of its power and glory by mid
century, if not sooner. Resurgent Russia and a powerful
China are forcing it to redefine its strategic global
planning, with focus on Eurasia. A paranoid America is
willing to pursue all options to prevent its slide from
power.
American strategists favor fracturing and weakening the
national unity of Islamic states that could become
strongholds of Islamic militants. They want oil rich
territories like Kurdistan, Eastern Arabian Peninsula and
Balochistan carved out, unified and controlled by puppet
regimes, while splintering other Muslim countries. This
would enable the US to secure its oil supplies, micromanage
a fragmented Muslim world and choke vital financial
resources to Islamic militants. Iraq is already going
through the motions.
US invasion of a hostile Iran is feared to come before the
new administration takes over. Apart from considering it
dangerous to Israeli security and a spoiler in Iraq, the US
suspects Iran will trigger the crash of US dollar, and
consequently the US economy, by transacting oil sales in
Euros in collusion with Venezuela.
The
US considers Pakistan unstable due to
"political
and economic mismanagement, divisive politics, lawlessness,
corruption and ethnic friction" and cites this as cause for
growing Talibanization. It fears that this might bring
Islamic radicals to power with control over the nukes - a
frightening scenario for Israeli and the US.
Pakistan's military controls Pakistan's nukes, is an
important player in the political dispensation of the
country, is resentful of American pressure to fight a war
against Taliban that it considers against Pakistan's
interests, and has made a shift from the liberal British
colonial mindset to a more
religious one.
From its strategic perspective a friendly government in
Kabul that will keep peace on Pakistan's western border has
always been critical to its defense planning for this would
enable it to face off India on the east, which remains its
primary concern. This has led it to maintain close links
with Afghan Jihadi groups and the Taliban, until the US
forced General Musharraf to abandon them after 9/11. Aware
of this, the
US fears that this can eventually tilt the balance of war in
Taliban's favor and impede its long term objectives in the
region. Therefore, a weaker military with lesser
geographical spread and without nuclear fangs would clearly
suit the US, as well as the Indians who are piggybacking the
US.
Of late, Balochistan has been the target in the Indian
scheme of Pakistan's further dismemberment. India and the US
were disturbed by Gen. Musharraf's new overtures towards
China, seeking Chinese strategic economic interests in
Balochistan. Motivated by the prospects of Balochistan's
development and economic uplift and to checkmate foreign
aided secessionist moves in the province, he wanted China to
use Gawadar-Sinkiang land corridor for its imports through
Gawadar port and transportation of oil refined at a Chinese
owned Gawadar based refinery. China also showed interest in
joining Pak-Iran gas pipeline project transiting through
Balochistan. China's presence in Gawadar would bring it to
the Indian Ocean, a sensitive spot both for Indians and
Americans – the former seeing this as a threat to its
control of the ocean with its blue water navy in the offing
and the latter upset with its proximity to the Straits of
Hormuz.
These are grounds enough to balkanize Pakistan.
Col. Ralph Peters, supposedly Pentagon's military scholar
and former intelligence official, writing in June 2006 issue
of Armed Forces Journal on balkanization of the Middle East
(Blood
Borders),
advocates the incorporation of North West Frontier Province
into Afghanistan and creation of a sovereign Free
Balochistan, carved out of Baloch areas of Pakistan and
Iran. His grounds: ethnic affinity. Pakistani Balochistan is
estimated to hold 25.1 trillion cft. of gas and 6 trillion
barrels of oil.
In his recent article "Drawn and Quartered" Selig Harrison
of the Center of International Policy, Washington, DC,
concludes that Pakistan's balkanization is imminent owing to
the rising nationalist sentiment in the Pashtun belt and
growing disillusionment of the Pashtuns, Balochis and
Sindhis with Punjab and Pakistan. He believes that ethnic
diversity threatens Pakistan's unity,
Both Col. Peters and Harrison are essentially singing the
same tune and seem to be presenting a doctrine that broadly
reflects US foreign policy.
General Aslam Beg, Pakistan's former Army Chief, notes in an
article that to pursue certain common interests with regard
to Pakistan and the region, India and the US have signed the
Strategic Partnership Deal the declared objective of which
is "to contain and curb the rising military and economic
power of China and the increasing threat of Islamic
extremism in the region". Gen. Beg says this deal has led to
the creation of a joint espionage network of CIA, Mosad,
MI-6, Raw and others in Afghanistan, which is engaged in
activities aimed at destabilizing Pakistan, Iran, China,
Russia and other Central Asian states. He claims that
dissidents from Pakistan are being trained at Sarobi and
Kandahar for missions inside NWFP, whereas bases at
Lashkargah and Nawah are being used to train dissidents from
Balochistan for missions inside that province and also in
support of the so called Balochistan Liberation Army.
In this backdrop, recent calls by some Afghan leaders to
'liberate Pakistani Pashtuns', the departure of Gen.
Musharraf and the cozy relationship between his successor
and Karazai of Kabul who lost no opportunity to malign
Pakistan, assume significance. The latest American decision
to send drones and troops into Pakistan's territory, despite
the declared Pakistan's opposition, to launch aerial and
ground attacks on its tribesmen killing innocent women and
children, also raise serious concerns. This seems to be an
attempt at drawing a wedge between Pakistan and the
independent tribes on the Pakistan side of the Pak-Afghan
border belt by establishing Pakistan's inability to protect
their life and property and promote a secessionist
movement.
Michel Chossudovsky, Director of the Center for Research on
Globalization, Ottawa (author of
War on Terrorism) in his article "The
Destabilization of Pakistan" says: "Washington's foreign
policy course is to actively promote the political
fragmentation and balkanization of Pakistan as a nation". He
states: "The US course consists in fomenting social, ethnic
and factional divisions and political fragmentation,
including the territorial breakup of Pakistan. This course
of action is also dictated by US war plans in relation to
both Iran and Afghanistan. This US agenda for Pakistan is
similar to that applied throughout the broader Middle East
Central Asian region."
Chossudovsky points out that "the US strategy, supported by
covert intelligence operations, consists in triggering
ethnic and religious strife, abetting and financing
secessionist movements while also weakening the institutions
of the central government."
The US initiatives to balkanize the region are misguided and
a grave miscalculation, promising an extremely volatile and
unstable geopolitical scenario. Given the ability of jihadi
militants to challenge and even defeat US imperialism, this
could cause the situation to easily spiral out of control,
proving counterproductive to US interests worldwide and
seriously undermining the regional and international
security environment. It is doubtful if EU will go along
with such US plans due to its own security imperatives and
in the end the US might find itself to be the Lone
Ranger.
In case of Pakistan, the plan will not be easy to
accomplish. The military that holds the key to political
power and unification of the country, supported by
pro-Pakistan segments of the population, will be the biggest
stumbling block. Having the benefit of East Pakistan
experience behind it and geography no more a handicap, it
stands a much better chance at successfully thwarting such
attempts and maintaining national integrity.
