$700 billion or
Armageddon? Sounds like sci-fi
The more I hear about Henry Paulson's plan, the less convinced I
am it's worth $2,000 from every American. The predictions of
financial Armageddon without it don't ring true.
By Ken Kam
27/09/08 "MSN
Money" -- - Put $700 billion in the bag and no
one gets hurt.
That's pretty much what I'm
hearing as the reason for pushing through a $700 billion bailout
for the financial industry. We are told that the situation is so
dire that we must accept Treasury Secretary Paulson's plan or
face financial Armageddon.
Of course, when Ben Bernanke was
asked what would happen if Paulson's plan was not approved, he
said car loans and student loans would be more difficult to get,
and businesses would find it harder to borrow money. Perhaps he
was trying to downplay the consequences so as not to start a
panic, but that doesn't sound like Armageddon to me.
In fact, it doesn't sound like
it's worth spending $700 billion to avoid.
Using $700 billion of taxpayer
money is a huge decision, or at least it ought to be. It's more
than $2,000 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. It makes
me angry to think that they want my 4-year-old daughter to
contribute $2,000 to a plan which, at least originally, would
have allowed bank executives to keep their compensation packages
and their golden parachutes.
Earlier this week it looked like
Congress would fairly quickly agree to use $700 billion of
taxpayer's money to implement Henry Paulson's plan to resolve
the credit crisis. But Democrats and Republicans in Congress
both demanded concessions and, heading toward the weekend, no
one seemed to know what would happen.
Such a deal for taxpayers?
As details of the Paulson plan
emerged, however, I become less confident that it would be the
end of the crisis even if it passed.. Nevertheless, I expect
that the news would send the market up, at least for a few days.
As I've listened to Paulson and Fed
chief Ben Bernanke explain their proposal, I am left with the
impression that protecting taxpayers is a lower priority for
them than protecting banks. This is the only way I can make
sense of their proposal to use taxpayer money to buy mortgage
securities from banks at a higher price than anyone else would
pay, without even asking for an equity kicker -- part of the
company -- to offset the risk.
Then there are the claims put
forward by Wall Street insiders including Andy Kessler, a hedge
fund manager, who writes in the Wall Street Journal that this is
going to be a great deal for the Treasury -- akin to the
purchase of Alaska for $7 million in 1867. Those billions of bad
loans we're buying will be money makers soon enough.
If that's so, I want to know why
Mr. Kessler's hedge fund, or any other hedge fund, is not
willing to do the same deal? I've never know them to turn down
easy money.
Why is it a good deal for my
daughter's money, but not a good deal for his money?
Is there a better alternative?
If the primary objective is to
recapitalize the banking system, as Bernanke testified to
Congress, it seems to me that there might be a better way to use
$700 billion to accomplish this.
Morgan
Stanley (MS,
news,
msgs) was said to be looking at a good bank/bad bank
structure when it was considering a merger with
Wachovia (WB,
news,
msgs). As I understand it, Morgan Stanley would have
bought the "good bank" from Wachovia's shareholders, leaving
Wachovia's shareholders with cash and all the bad loans -- the
"bad bank."
Why couldn't the Treasury use
the $700 billion to do something similar -- splitting out the
"good banks" from the banking system while paying cash and
leaving the bad loans to existing shareholders? I suspect that
using the money to set up a number of "good banks" will do more
to restart the flow of credit than Paulson's plan to buy the bad
loans at favorable prices. This plan would save the part of the
banking system that is healthy and empower it to continue making
good loans. In contrast, Paulson's plan rewards the part of the
banking system that made the worst loans.
To my knowledge such a plan has
not been considered, and that feeds my impression that the
taxpayers' interests are a low priority. (For another idea, read
"A
credit-crisis fix for banks and homeowners."
Getting our goat
The situation reminds me of a
portion of the Douglas Adams novel "The
Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy," in which the leaders of
the planet Golgafrincham decided to get rid of the least useful
third of their population. This was accomplished by making up a
story about a giant space goat coming to eat their planet and
convincing all of the people they wanted to get rid of to board
Ark-B, the first of three giant spaceships that would take them
all to a new planet. The other two-thirds of the population, of
course, did not follow.
The way that Paulson and
Bernanke have described the problem, I cannot shake the feeling
that my wife, daughter and I are being told to board Ark-B. Tell
me again what the problem is that is so severe that it justifies
taking $2,000 from every man, woman and child in the country?
Nevertheless, this train has
left the station. No matter what we think, Paulson is going to
have $700 billion to fix the credit crisis as he sees fit. It's
a lot of power to give one man, especially one who was not
elected and who has the gall to tell us he doesn't want there to
be any oversight.
I am insulted that they think
they can scare the money out of me without offering a good
explanation. Maybe there are good reasons why each of us should
give them $2,000, but I haven't heard them yet.
There is only one thing that
politicians respond to more than money -- your votes. Whether
you agree with me or not, I hope this makes you angry enough to
vote. If the politicians who did this are returned to office, at
least I'll feel that they really did represent their
constituents instead of the interests of a very small group of
people who think they can scare us out of $700 billion.
Thank goodness there is an
election coming up.
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