The authors of A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm include some of those most associated with the new 'Crusaders' in the US administration, notably the right wing hawks Richard Perle and Douglas Feith, clearly identify the real American target. In their view Iran is 'American territory' and ever since the British and Americans organized the coup that overthrew the legitimate Government in 1953 and restored a medieval style potentate in the form of the Shah to oversee the affairs of an oil rich Iran this view has largely held sway inside Washington. Iraq is a necessary first step to restoring Western control over the entire Gulf region with its vital natural resources and important international waterways. It will also, as with Iraq, be a distinct and bloody form of pay back. In this case for the humiliation of the US Embassy hostages; the failed desert rescue mission; Iran's continuing attempts to control the Straits of Hormuz used by the worlds biggest supertankers; the probable Iranian responsibility for the destruction of PanAm Flight-103 over Lockerbie in 1988 and even the suggestion that Hezbollah were involved in the terrorist outrages of 9-11.

Oil and the economy - the catalysts for future war

The main geo-strategic reasons behind the War of 2003 against Iraq and the rumoured Pentagons plans for a War against Iran in 2004 are the same as the 1950's; oil and economic concerns. The United States economy controls half the worlds wealth, consumes roughly 30% of the world's energy production when measured in British Thermal Units and yet has only 5% of the total population. As long ago as 1948 George Kennan argued that America's duty was "to devise a series of relationships which permit us to maintain this position of disparity. To do so we have to dispense with sentimentality...we should cease thinking about human rights, the raising of living standards and democratization".  France, Britain and more recently the United States have followed that advice for the best part of 50 years and with their Turkish and Israel allies have attempted to dragoon the Arab states into line with a mixture of aid, diplomacy and threat. The advances in military technology and the collapse of the Soviet Union have now given the United States a huge window of opportunity which the new and more adventurist leadership in The Whitehouse is determined to exploit. The policies now been followed were first quietly put forward during the Reagan administration and have been honed and perfected through the 1991 Gulf War and Afghanistan.

Warfighting as an adjunct to foreign policy and as an acceptable alternative to diplomacy and international agreement has been firmly established. New and original tactics have been developed by the Pentagon based on a worldwide reach, speed, near total battlefield dominance, advanced technology, the growth of Special Forces and the use of strategic surprise. Traditional military thinking has been replaced by a willingness to do the unexpected, keeping the enemy constantly on the defensive and the use of 'Shock and Awe'. While Iraq is to be the testing ground for the new warfare, Iran will see it come of age. British troops in southern Iraq are already being deployed to seal the border with Iran and the US has penetrated Iranian airspace with impunity on a number occasions since March 21st. 'Stray' cruise missiles and smart bombs are reported to have damaged oil facilities near Khorramshahr, Abadan and Manyuhi, while heavily armed British and US attack aircraft are believed to have circled over the Arvand-Kenar area in Iran on their way into Iraq.

Operation Iranian Freedom - has it already started?

It is reported by sources within Israel and the US intelligence community that a enormous covert operation will be launched by the middle of 2003 to destabilize the Tehran regime.  Washington and London are expected to develop a global disinformation campaign aimed at swinging national and international opinion against Iran in anticipation of a full scale invasion by mid to late 2004. It has been claimed that the CIA in particular is already deeply involved in Iran and that Delta Force, the SAS and Australian SAS have been conducting deep penetration operations from Afghanistan. While the USN SEAL's and the Royal Marines SBS have carried out numerous sea borne intelligence operations along Iran's coastline and islands in the Gulf from bases in Bahrain and Oman and indeed from US surface vessels and submarines. According to Gulf intelligence sources USN Special Forces using stealth helicopters and fast raiding craft have apparently carried out considerable surveillance of Bandar-e-Abbas and other important Iranian naval facilities and coast defences. There can be little doubt now that the current operations against Iraq should be seen in the context of establishing the strategic positioning for the next major conflict in the Middle East. Pentagon planners are reported to have apparently based their strategy on the assumption that North Korea can be kept on ice until Iraq and then Iran have been fully dealt with. Whether the regimes in Tehran and Pyongyang will prove quite so willing to go along with Washington's timetable is of course another matter, as is whether anyone and that includes Tony Blair, will be able to reign in America's new military interventionist policies in the future.

Richard M. Bennett