March 29-30 did not undergo any significant changes. Positional
engagements, firefights, and active reconnaissance activities continue
all along the front on both sides.
The concentration of U.S. forces continues near Karbala. As was
noted in a previous report, the U.S. force concentrated here totals up
to 30,000 soldiers and officers, up to 200 tanks, and up to 230
helicopters. The latest photographs of this area permit the conclusion
that the troops are engaged in maintenance activities and in the
repair and deployment of a rear-echelon infrastructure.
Radio intercepts indicate that General Tommy Franks, commander of
coalition forces, visited the troops yesterday evening. He personally
reviewed troop positions and met with unit commanders.
We do not yet have detailed information, but we can assume that the
commander heard reports of his subordinates and assigned objectives
for the next two to three days.
A meeting was held at the main headquarters, at which an analysis
of the maintenance status of the force was presented. In a personal
telephone conversation with a colleague in the U.S., one of the
meeting participants described that status as "deplorable,"
and in his words, "...one third of our equipment can be
fearlessly taken to the dump. We are holding on thanks only to
round-the-clock repairs. Our heroes aren't the marines at the front
but the "worms" in the repair companies. Without them we'd
be fighting from the backs of camels long ago."
On the basis of radio intercepts, reports from both sides, and
intelligence from the start of the war, the coalition has lost between
15 and 20 tanks in combat, around 40 troop carriers and fighting
vehicles, more than 50 trucks and up to 10 helicopters. In addition,
we can mention, as a minimum, another 40 unserviceable tanks, about
the same number of troop carriers and fighting vehicles, and
approximately 100 units of various vehicles and approximately 40
helicopters. These data were obtained by analyzing unclassified
technical reports that are sent from the combat zone to the Pentagon.
In the vicinity of An-Najaf, up to two battalions of U.S. Marines
attempted a night action to drive Iraqi forces from occupied
positions. Despite the nearly four hours of artillery preparation and
two aircraft and missile strikes, the units that advanced on the Iraqi
positions were met with substantial grenade and machine-gun fire and
were forced to withdraw to their original positions.
In the course of the night attack, one tank was blown up by a mine
and two troop carriers were knocked out of action. According to radio
intercepts, two Marines were killed and 5 others wounded.
An attempt by the Americans to improve their positions on the left
bank of the Euphrates at the city of Al Nasiriya were also
unsuccessful. Despite taking measures to assure secrecy and surprise,
the American units were met with fire and withdrew to their original
positions. According to the reports of commanders, three Marines are
missing in action and four others were wounded.
These unsuccessful night attacks again confirmed the assumptions of
the coalition command that the Iraqi forces are much better equipped
than had been estimated before the war. In particular, a February 2003
Defense Intelligence Agency intelligence summary noted that the Iraqi
army had almost no night vision devices besides those mounted on heavy
armor, and that the serviceability of those units was doubtful. In
reality, coalition forces have found that the Iraqis have an adequate
quantity of night vision devices and night sights, even at the company
level, and are trained in how to use them. Of particular concern is
the fact that the majority of captured devices of this kind are of the
latest manufacture and of U.S. and Japanese origin. An analysis of the
origin of these devices forced the U.S. to start talking of a
"Syrian trail." In this regard, American military experts
have analyzed military imports from Syria for the past two years and
drawn very depressing conclusions to the effect that, in the course of
upcoming battles, coalition forces may come up against the most modern
Russian-made antitank systems, as well as the most up-to-date radar
and communications reconnaissance systems, as well as command and
communications systems that are resistant to electronic warfare.
In this same area, at the entrance to the city, in
coalition-occupied territory, a U.S. Marine checkpoint was attached by
an Iraqi suicide-soldier, who blew up a passenger vehicle that was
loaded with explosives next to American soldiers. At least 5 people
were killed.
The coalition command, in a closed radio broadcast to the troops,
called upon them to exhibit "restraint and calmness" and to
"not give in to emotions and feelings of anger." This
broadcast was recorded after two Iraqis were shot by British troops in
front of residents of a street in the city of Um Qasr, after an
automatic weapon was found in a house during a search, and after an
American helicopter, returning from the front, shot its cannon at an
occupied Iraqi passenger vehicle in its own rear logistics zone.
Investigations into both incidents have been announced. However,
military psychologists believe that what happened was the result of
extreme stress, which is being experienced by the majority of
coalition soldiers and they propose transferring these persons for
medical treatment.
In the area of Basra, British units have completely halted their
advance and have transitioned to positional battle. Individual attacks
are occurring in the vicinity of the airport, as well as on the not
completely occupied Faw peninsula, where Iraqis continue to hold onto
a wide foothold.
In the words of British commanders, the troops are extremely
exhausted and are in dire need of rest and replenishment of
provisions.
Three British soldiers went missing in the course of the day here,
and two were wounded. Today, at night, south of Al Nasiriya, a rear
company of the 3rd MPD (a guess: Mechanized Infantry Division --
Translator) was ambushed. In the course of the attack, up to 10 fuel
trucks were burned, one of the escort troop carriers was knocked out,
8 soldiers were wounded, and one soldier is missing. It is not yet
clear who attacked the column, the Iraqi Republican Guards or one of
the guerilla units that are active here. Analysis of unclassified
information regarding combat actions in the area permits the
conclusion that all press contacts are being sharply curtailed and
information from battle areas is being cut off, with the exception of
official reports. For example, since yesterday morning, under the
pretext of increasing security, all Internet and telephone circuits
from the division level down were shut down. These had previously been
used by enlisted personnel, NCOs, and junior officers to allow them to
communicate with their families and loved ones in the U.S. and Europe.
This is evidence that force commanders are not only trying to change
the progress of the information war, but also that in the next day or
two, coalition soldiers may try to deliver a powerful blow against the
enemy and that commanders are doing everything they can to avoid
leaking this.
All announcements of some "two-week time out in the war"
are, in the opinion of analysts, nothing more than disinformation. The
forces and resources available to the coalition at this time are
sufficient for at least another week or two of active operations,
which corresponds to the approximate scale of a serious operation.
Moreover, the start of that operation can be expected within the next
day or so in the vicinity of Karbala. We have already tried to
discover the objective of the operation in a previous report.
At the same time, planning of a new, large-scale operation that
utilizes newly arriving troops has begun and is proceeding. Military
experts, based on our research and intelligence activities regarding
coalition activity, believe that this will more than likely be an
attack from the base region of Karbala and will have the envelopment
of Baghdad from the west as its objective, with coalition forces
emerging in the vicinity of Lake Tartar west of the city of El Kadita
(another alternative, is to emerge to the west of Lake Tartar to
Samarr). From there, part of the force will begin an advance toward
Saddam Hussein's home town of Tikrit. From there, it will turn toward
Baghdad, while the other force will hit the rear of Iraqi forces
acting to the north in the area of Kirkura and Mosul. This attack will
require 60,000 coalition soldiers and officers, at least 300 tanks and
up to 200 helicopters. It is conjectured that such a force can be
brought here by April 15 and can be in position by April 18.
Some data allow us to surmise the appearance of a serious conflict
between commanders in the field and higher-level military and
political leaders in the U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld,
who is one of the primary developers of and lobbyists for the military
operation in Iraq, is blaming field commanders and General Tommy
Franks personally for indecisiveness and passivity, which have led to
the war being drawn out and today's "stalemate" situation.
The latter, in turn, freely describes the Secretary to his circle of
confidants as an "old windbag" and "opportunist"
who has dragged the army into war under the most unfavorable
conditions. However, many officers believe that these military
commanders are both responsible for the military setbacks of the
coalition. . Rumsfeld made the most serious errors in planning the
forces and resources that would be required for this campaign, but
Franks could not show firmness in achieving complete and high-quality
preparation for the campaign and in fact "lay down" before
the capricious demands of the politicians...
It is fully apparent that the development of this conflict will end
with the retirement of one of the participants. According to some
information, Rumsfeld has already proposed replacing the force
commander to President Bush, but Bush overruled that as ill-timed and
capable of having a negative effect on morale and on the American
people.
Ramzaj
