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AFI RESEARCH INTELL.BRIEFING

6th April 2003 -

Is this the start of the next World War?


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The last century saw the Great War of 1914-18; the Second World War of 1939-45 and  the Cold War, effectively a third world war that lasted from 1945 to 1990. Many analysts, including the former CIA Director James Woolsey, believe that the Iraq campaign is really just the start of the 4th World War and one that will undoubtedly last for decades. Woolsey in a speech made to University students in California last week confirmed the rumours coming out of Washington that an occupied Iraq will act as a strategic jumping off area for further wars against Syria and Iran.
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As the new Bush doctrine unfolds it will apparently become clearer that Pakistan, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Burma, Vietnam, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela and possibly even China itself are also to one degree or another targets in this new world wide conflict. The American assault on hostile regimes will be multi-faceted; in will include the use of diplomacy, economic pressure, covert intelligence, psychological, disinformation and propaganda operations and if all else fails military action ranging from the highly sophisticated use of special forces up to and including full scale war.
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As part of the preparations for a new World War the CIA has embarked on a massive recruitment campaign in foreign countries. Elements that would normally have been avoided because of extremist, racialist or criminal connections are now considered acceptable allies, while the NSA and FBI have been ordered to get their operational readiness quickly into order and markedly increase their analytical capability as well. This has so far been largely hidden by constant references to the requirements demanded by the War on Terrorism, however this is now clearly only a second front in a much larger conflict.  Indeed evidence would seem to suggest that it was only the intervention of Tony Blair that persuaded Washington to attack Al Qa'ida and the Taliban in Afghanistan first in the aftermath of 9-11, rather than initiate an immediate assault on Iraq as many in The Whitehouse and the Pentagon originally intended.
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Whether in agreement or not with the new aggressive and interventionist American foreign policy, few can seriously doubt that under the guise of bringing 'liberation' and 'democracy' to oppressed peoples, the United States intends to dominate and control the entire region of the Gulf. This will provide Washington with a vital strategic position from which to project its power into the key oil rich Central Asian states of the former Soviet Union where a new confrontation is undoubtedly building rapidly with both Russia and Communist China. The United States is also looking to expand its worldwide network of strategic military base's either by making far greater use of facilities under its virtual total control such as Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean or by much enhanced co-operation in such important area's as Oman, Singapore and Ecuador.
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Woolsey in a brutally frank speech said "As we move toward a new Middle East......over the years and, I think, over the decades to come ... we will make a lot of people very nervous." The former CIA director added by personally identifying the President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and the leadership of Saudi Arabia "We want you nervous. We want you to realize now, for the fourth time in a hundred years, this country and its allies are on the march and that we are on the side of those whom you, the Mubaraks, the Saudi Royal family, most fear: We're on the side of your own people" This is an interesting concept for the United States and perhaps these opening campaigns in a new World War to be waged against the Islamic countries and the remnants of the Communist 'empire' will produce many surprises, not least that many of those America aspires to liberate may well prove unwillingly beneficiaries of Washington's best intentions.

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Richard M. Bennett

 

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Richard Bennett Media.  rbmedia@supanet.com 

 


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