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Israel Is Inciting Washington To Take On Syria

Translated from Le Figaro (Paris), April 14:

http://irak.figaro.net//enjeux/20030414.FIG0770.html

WAR IN IRAQ:  The Israeli prime minister, who is hoping that the American
victory will increase the pressure on Damascus, is talking about concessions
on the settlements

Washington is keeping up its accusations directed as Syria.  After
reproaching Damascus with facilitating the flight of senior Iraqi officials
and letting entire busloads of "mercenaries" enter Iraq to fight
Anglo-American forces, the United States is convinced that the country harbors
weapons of mass destruction.  "We believe that there are chemical arms in
Syria," George W. Bush said yesterday.  The American president refused to
discuss, however, the possibility of an American intervention in Syria. 
"Every situation requires a different response.  Right now, we're in Iraq. 
The second thing, with regard to Syria, is that we expect cooperation," he
declared. [Reverse translation from French]**

Pierre Prier
Le Figaro

Jerusalem
April 14, 2003

After Iraq, Syria?  Israel is not concealing her desire to see the United
States take on her neighbor to the north, the only country on her border, in
addition to her Lebanese "protectorate," with which it has not signed a peace
treaty.  Israel wants Damascus to stop hosting the foreign headquarters of the
Palestinian Islamic parties Hamas and Islamic Jihad.  Ariel Sharon would also
like to see disappear the threat in southern Lebanon represented by Hezbollah,
the armed Lebanese Shi'ite movement "sponsored" by Syria and Iran.  That's
what Ephraim Halevy, Ariel Sharon's national security advisor and former head
of Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, must be telling Washington.  Two
days ago, before a group of students, Gen. Amos Gilad, "national spokesperson"
on the Iraqi conflict, gave an indication of Israeli aspirations.  For the
general, there is an opportunity to be seized: "The fall of Saddam Hussein has
an enormous importance for Israel.  His defeat has deprived Syria of strategic
depth.  Bachar el-Assad is isolated.  Now changes have to take place in
Syria."

For his part, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz reiterated yesterday the Israeli
accusation made against Syria of stocking arms for Iraq.  "The transfer of
Iraqi arms to Syria is showing its dangerous side."

What "changes" are the Israeli officials talking about?  Leaders are still
evasive on this point and refer questions to the United States.  Ariel Sharon
is content to see, alongside American pressure, the emergence of this "new
Near East" that Israel was expecting after the American victory.

Syria remains a thorn in Israel's foot.  First, there was the failure of Ehud
Barak to conclude a peace treaty with Damascus in 1999, then there was the
death of Hafez el-Assad in June 2000, after thirty years in power.  But today
that pragmatic leader is missed.  "He usually knew where the thresholds not to
cross were," confided one member of the security apparatus.

Since then, it's the unknown.  Israel still hasn't figured out how to get
along with president Bachar el-Assad, 37 years of age.  An ophthamologist,
this ungainly young man had to have a crash course to occupy a position
destined for his elder brother Bassel, who died in an accident in 1994.

According to Israeli intelligence, Bachar is still trying to consolidate his
power in Syria and the Arab world.  Hezbollah and the Palestinian cause, say
specialists, are for him a rallying point as well as source of danger.  "This
is a way for him to take on the stature of a fighter," says one analyst.  "For
Syria, Hezbollah represents a source of legitimacy, a way to fight Israel
without paying the price," a senior national security official emphasizes.

This complex game has its rules, though.  Israeli Syria and Lebanon
specialists know that Hezbollah, a political movement endowed with a small
well-equipped and well-trained army, has its own interests and its own limits.
 "Ever since we left southern Lebanon unilaterally in May 2000, they have to
find new pretexts in order to maintain their identity as the party of jihad
against Israel," continues the specialist.  "But it's hard in a global
environment where terrorism is no longer accepted."

The Shi'ite party, which had fallen idle after the Israeli retreat, has been
back at work since the beginning of the intifida in September 2000.  The
Palestinian uprising has fed a fiery rhetoric, even as Hezbollah increases
attacks against the Israeli border -- most of the time within clear limits. 
Hezbollah, according to an analysis by Jaffee, the Center of Strategic
Studies, a highly regarded independent think tank, also has to take into
account its status in Lebanese society:  "It has no interest in appearing as
the cause of massive Israeli reprisals against Lebanon."  Most of the shelling
takes place in the "Shebaa Farms" zone, a small area which, thanks to a claim
on it made by Lebanon, has acquired the status of a disputed territory.

Israel reacted in April 2001 by striking Syrian radars in Lebanon.  But the
Jewish state is also observing a certain restraint.  Israel has not opened a
new front, even when Hezbollah kidnapped three soldiers, who are still
missing.  The game is complicated by the intervention by Iran, the other
godfather of the movement.  Teheran, which likewise wants to maintain an
anti-Israeli nucleus through the proxy Hezbollah, also wishes to avoid open
conflict.  In April 2002, the Iranian minister of foreign affairs, Kamal
Kharazi, traveled to Beirut to ask Hezbollah to ease up.

According to Israel, the control of the two godfathers is never complete,
however.  Bachar el-Assad is said to have less authority over the Shi'ite
movement, and it is also said that he sometimes fails to recognize "red
lines."  Syria is said to have furnished dozens of missiles in the 50- to
70-kilometer range, threatening several Israeli cities.  It's this dangerous
game of "how much too far to go" that may be challenged in the post-Iraq war
context.

--
Translated by Mark K. Jensen
Associate Professor of French
Chair, Department of Languages and Literatures
Pacific Lutheran University
Tacoma, WA 98447-0003
Phone: 253-535-7219
Webpage: http://www.plu.edu/~jensenmk/
E-mail: jensenmk@plu.edu

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