US Preparing Something Against Iran

By Gennady Yevstafyev
Retired Lieutenant-General of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence.

February 03, 2012 "
VOR" -- First of all I would like to make some correction. It is not Iran which is prepared to launch an attack against the United States, it is a gross exaggeration by American spy agency. It is aimed at creation absolutely negative image of Iran in the American population, in the international public opinion and it is a preparation for something serious in case the decision is taken by American Administration.

Some people say Obama, because of his weak positions in the election campaign, might take the decision to have an operation against Iran. Whether it is a long range operation or it is a shortcut attack - nobody knows. But the fact that the American responsible people, especially from the spy agency are playing with the idea, that it is Iran which is preparing terrorist acts on the territory of the United States, it is really a mystification. It is a misleading think in order to cover the real story behind the whole thing – the real story behind the American preparations in the Gulf.

We know that in the Gulf there are two flattops surrounded by several dozens of American ships. And yesterday or the day before yesterday the nuclear submarine Annapolis, which is a very big one and is one of the advanced corvettes, entered the area. Of course there is the principle of rotation in the American system, but nevertheless the amount of naval force they keep there is really spectacular. And it makes me personally to believe that they are preparing something.

Now, coming to Iran – Iran of course has certain assets and these assets are connected with certain political movements and political organizations, which attack in retaliation the American and Israeli targets. But I don’t think Iran is initially aiming at attacking the United States, it is not in its interest. Secondly, the problem is – we are watching the final acts of Syrian drama. The initial attack on Syria didn’t succeed, they are trying to undermine Syria and they are trying to deprive Syria of allies and some countries which could support it. Among these countries are Iran, Lebanon and Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, and some other countries which are prepared to give political support to Syria to survive, I would say, the sub basing attack on Syrian sovereignty.

So, Iran is a key, it is a lynchpin of the security situation in the Gulf as far as anti-American forces are concerned. So, maybe because of that Americans have decided to take some sort of action to undermine Iran. Meanwhile there is a long going negotiation to arrange six-party meeting Europe between Iran and five other countries, which are willing to discus the Iranian atomic program. And as far as I understand Iranians are quite eager to discuss many elements of their program, they are suffering from all kinds of sanctions and America is interested in those kinds of things.

And I believe that if Americans are very desperate, then they can act before this meeting takes place. If Americans can wait a little bit, they are not so desperate, they would allow this meeting to take place and they would try to convert this meeting into a form of some sort of example of Iran being belligerent, being non-cooperative and only after this they will try to attract public opinion in Europe and other countries to their course as far as military action against Iran is concerned.

So, in general, what we have now in the Gulf is a very dangerous, explosive situation which can blow up any given moment and much would depend on the political will of the participants. If the Americans, which are pushed forward by Israelis, are in the mood to decide in favour of military action, actually there is nothing to block them, they would take this. The force they have collected in the Persian Gulf and in Indian Ocean is huge and formidable. If the political will is not there, then we would see the final result of this drama some time later, closer to the end of the American election campaign on the part of Iran.

Of course Iran is also entering the parliamentary elections and presidential campaign, so they have their own modalities which dictate their behavior. But in general I don’t think that Iran is the initiator of the conflict. It simply shows the Americans that Iran has some assets and they can use them in order to make their lives painful.

And now the biggest role is for Russia and China, because these two countries which have very balanced policy in the crisis, they have to work actively and they have to prevent the extreme developments. That’s how I see the situation and I’m not surprised by the statements of the American spy agency, American military agency - they have their own plan of pressuring Iran into submission, and they are going to follow this plan whatever the developments of political situation in the area are concerned.




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