Million to Die by 2030 If World Fails to Act on Climate
More than 100 million people will die and global economic growth
will be cut by 3.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by
2030 if the world fails to tackle climate change, a report
commissioned by 20 governments said on Wednesday.
By Nina Chestney
----------------- LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters)
- More than 100 million people will die and global economic
growth will be cut by 3.2 percent of gross domestic product
(GDP) by 2030 if the world fails to tackle climate change, a
report commissioned by 20 governments said on Wednesday.
As global average temperatures rise due to greenhouse gas
emissions, the effects on the planet, such as melting ice caps,
extreme weather, drought and rising sea levels, will threaten
populations and livelihoods, said the report conducted by
humanitarian organisation DARA.
It calculated that five million deaths occur each year from air
pollution, hunger and disease as a result of climate change and
carbon-intensive economies, and that toll would likely rise to
six million a year by 2030 if current patterns of fossil fuel
More than 90 percent of those deaths will occur in developing
countries, said the report that calculated the human and
economic impact of climate change on 184 countries in 2010 and
2030. It was commissioned by the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a
partnership of 20 developing countries threatened by climate
"A combined climate-carbon crisis is estimated to claim 100
million lives between now and the end of the next decade," the
It said the effects of climate change had lowered global output
by 1.6 percent of world GDP, or by about $1.2 trillion a year,
and losses could double to 3.2 percent of global GDP by 2030 if
global temperatures are allowed to rise, surpassing 10 percent
It estimated the cost of moving the world to a low-carbon
economy at about 0.5 percent of GDP this decade.
COUNTING THE COST
Responding to the report, Oxfam International said the costs of
political inaction on climate were "staggering".
"The losses to agriculture and fisheries alone could amount to
more than $500 billion per year by 2030, heavily focussed in the
poorest countries where millions depend on these sectors to make
a living," said executive director Jeremy Hobbs.
British economist Nicholas Stern told Reuters earlier this year
investment equivalent to 2 percent of global GDP was needed to
limit, prevent and adapt to climate change.
His report on the economics of climate change in 2006 said that
without any action to tackle climate change, the overall costs
and risks of climate change would be equivalent to a cut in
per-capita consumption of perhaps up to 20 percent.
Temperatures have already risen by about 0.8 degrees Celsius
above pre-industrial times. Almost 200 nations agreed in 2010 to
limit the global average temperature rise to below 2C (3.6
Fahrenheit) to avoid dangerous impacts from climate change.
But climate scientists have warned that the chance of limiting
the rise to below 2C is getting smaller as global greenhouse gas
emissions rise due to burning fossil fuels.
The world's poorest nations are the most vulnerable as they face
increased risk of drought, water shortages, crop failure,
poverty and disease. On average, they could see an 11 percent
loss in GDP by 2030 due to climate change, DARA said.
"One degree Celsius rise in temperature is associated with 10
percent productivity loss in farming. For us, it means losing
about 4 million metric tonnes of food grain, amounting to about
$2.5 billion. That is about 2 percent of our GDP," Bangladesh's
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said in response to the report.
"Adding up the damages to property and other losses, we are
faced with a total loss of about 3-4 percent of GDP."
Even the biggest and most rapidly developing economies will not
escape unscathed. The United States and China could see a 2.1
percent reduction in their respective GDPs by 2030, while India
could experience a more than 5 percent loss.
The full report is available at: http://daraint.org/ (Editing by
Scroll down to add / read comments
Support Information Clearing House
Search Information Clearing House