NEWS YOU WON'T FIND ON CNN
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Riverside Conversations
A must see for insight into Americas financial future, China, globalization and state of world economy
Hosted by American investor Jim Rogers. Guests: American oil and economy expert and Pulitzer Prize winner Daniel Yergin (who is a White House advisor), and Swiss investor and Asia expert Marc Faber The first 2 minutes of this program are in Dutch, the remainder is in English
download for realvideo broadband or smallband MF: In China every year 500.000 engineers graduate from universities. The same as in India. They are willing to work a 100 hours a week to succeed. They don't go skiing in the weekend or sailing in the summer. I was never optimistic about internet stocks but the internet allows people anywhere in the world to know the same as you. A big knowledge transfer is taking place. In the US and in Europe everyone says: We have the knowledge and know-how. But the Indians and Chinese are quickly taking over. In 5 years you will see big research- laboratories in China and India. Research in those counties only costs 10% of the costs in the US and Europe. JR: Marc is right about that. China has an excellent infrastructure and people like to work all day. They save and invest. They save 40% of their income. DY: What would you do if you were in charge of the FED? JR: Raise interest rates. MF: Good idea. That's what I would do. JR: This way you eliminate overcapacity. Cut off the dead wood so the tree can blossom again. The FED is telling Japan to write off bad debts, take their loss and stop supporting zombie companies while the FED is supporting zombie companies back home. Interest rates are almost zero. Lucent Technologies and WorldCom still exist. We need to get rid off those companies. Interest rates will have to go up. It will hurt, yes. A month, a year, two years. But in Japan they're hurting for 13 years. What would you rather have? MF: For capitalism to work it is essential that only good companies survive. If the system supports bad companies, the weak ones survive not the strong ones. JR: I know productivity and inflation figures are doctored. Commodities have risen 80% in five years. The American government says they haven't risen. In November they said oil had lowered 11%. Where did they get this from? The Wall Street Journal said it had risen 25%. My oilman says even more than 25%. Yet the American government reported in November 2002 that the price of oil had lowered 11% so it was a month without inflation. DY: So somebody just said: hey Joe, change those figures? JR: I get calls from people saying they had to adjust the figures. MF: Productivity figures are also adjusted. They are based on a 40-hour work week. Working a hour longer greatly effects the productivity figures. The figures also do not account for people who work at home or at night. DY: Are the GNP-figures also incorrect? JR: I know they are. MF: First you have to determine how you define the GNP-growth. If you spend more, your GNP grows. But what if you are producing in other countries? Especially when it's financed by growing debts? That's the point. Is it possible to endure this debt in the long run? I agree with Jimmy. More on this: They Are Lying to Us Again MF:There is only one country that can compete with China on industrial production. That is Vietnam. But for commodities and agriculture China has a water problem. They will have to import this. But the Chinese are smart. They are not using military force but are becoming good customers of other countries. This way they get a lot of economical influence on countries like Indonesia, Australia and all African countries. They have connections everywhere and are becoming a huge geo-political power. JR: They are the world's biggest customer. Everyone's nice to a customer. DY: What will the stock market do? JR: Japanese stocks have lost 95% since 1990. American stocks are still doing well. The real pain still has to come. Copyright: Dutch VPRO televison Join our Daily News Headlines Email Digest Fill out your emailaddress to receive our newsletter! SubscribeUnsubscribe Powered by YourMailinglistProvider.com Information Clearing House Daily News Headlines Digest HOME COPYRIGHT NOTICE
download for realvideo broadband or smallband
MF: In China every year 500.000 engineers graduate from universities. The same as in India. They are willing to work a 100 hours a week to succeed. They don't go skiing in the weekend or sailing in the summer. I was never optimistic about internet stocks but the internet allows people anywhere in the world to know the same as you. A big knowledge transfer is taking place. In the US and in Europe everyone says: We have the knowledge and know-how. But the Indians and Chinese are quickly taking over. In 5 years you will see big research- laboratories in China and India. Research in those counties only costs 10% of the costs in the US and Europe.
JR: Marc is right about that. China has an excellent infrastructure and people like to work all day. They save and invest. They save 40% of their income.
DY: What would you do if you were in charge of the FED? JR: Raise interest rates. MF: Good idea. That's what I would do. JR: This way you eliminate overcapacity. Cut off the dead wood so the tree can blossom again. The FED is telling Japan to write off bad debts, take their loss and stop supporting zombie companies while the FED is supporting zombie companies back home. Interest rates are almost zero. Lucent Technologies and WorldCom still exist. We need to get rid off those companies. Interest rates will have to go up. It will hurt, yes. A month, a year, two years. But in Japan they're hurting for 13 years. What would you rather have? MF: For capitalism to work it is essential that only good companies survive. If the system supports bad companies, the weak ones survive not the strong ones.
JR: I know productivity and inflation figures are doctored. Commodities have risen 80% in five years. The American government says they haven't risen. In November they said oil had lowered 11%. Where did they get this from? The Wall Street Journal said it had risen 25%. My oilman says even more than 25%. Yet the American government reported in November 2002 that the price of oil had lowered 11% so it was a month without inflation. DY: So somebody just said: hey Joe, change those figures? JR: I get calls from people saying they had to adjust the figures. MF: Productivity figures are also adjusted. They are based on a 40-hour work week. Working a hour longer greatly effects the productivity figures. The figures also do not account for people who work at home or at night. DY: Are the GNP-figures also incorrect? JR: I know they are. MF: First you have to determine how you define the GNP-growth. If you spend more, your GNP grows. But what if you are producing in other countries? Especially when it's financed by growing debts? That's the point. Is it possible to endure this debt in the long run? I agree with Jimmy.
More on this: They Are Lying to Us Again
MF:There is only one country that can compete with China on industrial production. That is Vietnam. But for commodities and agriculture China has a water problem. They will have to import this. But the Chinese are smart. They are not using military force but are becoming good customers of other countries. This way they get a lot of economical influence on countries like Indonesia, Australia and all African countries. They have connections everywhere and are becoming a huge geo-political power. JR: They are the world's biggest customer. Everyone's nice to a customer.
DY: What will the stock market do? JR: Japanese stocks have lost 95% since 1990. American stocks are still doing well. The real pain still has to come.
Copyright: Dutch VPRO televison
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